Too many housing starts means crunch 'may come soon,'Lost amid concern over United States government agencies moving in to support mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae plus IndyMac Bankcorp, was a warning that Canada could soon face its own mortgage crisis.

Peter Hall, vice-president and chief economist with Export Development Canada, said in a report that in addition to U.S. housing woes, housing starts were down 56 per cent year-over-year during May in the United Kingdom, 18 per cent during the first quarter of the year in Spain and 17 per cent year-over-year in May in France.

Hall noted that housing starts in Canada are "soaring on the strength of the domestic economy and a huge dollop of very well-timed fiscal stimulus," and that a continuing excess of housing starts over requirements means "Canada's turn may come soon" for a housing crisis.

The report came in the wake of the Canadian government's attempt to avoid a housing crisis by no longer insuring mortgages with more than 35-year amortization periods and less than five-per-cent down payments as of Oct. 15.

Homebuyers with less than a 20-per-cent down payment are required to have their mortgage insured through the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation -- a Crown corporation -- or a handful of private firms that have entered the mortgage-insurance market.

In 2006, the government extended the maximum amortization period from 25 to 40 years, adding hundreds of thousands of dollars in interest costs. Last year, 37 per cent of mortgages taken out were for longer than 25 years.

Soon after the Canadian changes were announced, the United States Federal Reserve Board tightened up its mortgage-lending policies. As of Oct. 1, the Fed will require lenders to verify a borrower's income in determining repayment ability, to take a lender's ability to repay a loan from income into consideration, to establish escrow accounts for property taxes and homeowners insurance in certain cases, and basically to advertise rates and payments with clear notice if a rate isn't fixed.

One reason why U.S. lenders were willing to give mortgages to people with an unproven ability to make payments was that the lenders were able to package the loans with others and sell them to other institutions. Had the lenders been forced to hold the debt themselves, which is somewhat the case in Canada, lending would have been less reckless.

Rather than abating, the U.S. housing problem grows worse by the day, with foreclosures expected to flood the market with homes for sale early in 2009.

Things have deteriorated so badly in the U.S. that the Treasury Department will extend credit if needed to prop up Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, two government-sponsored enterprises that hold nearly half of all American mortgages.

The GSEs each include a debt component and an equity component, with the latter falling in value as investors sold off shares due to concern over rising mortgage defaults.

Famed U.S. commodities investor Jim Rogers called the Treasury plan an "unmitigated disaster." Mortgage lenders are "basically insolvent," and taxpayers will be left footing the bill, according to Rogers.

At the same time, U.S. government agencies stepped in to take over IndyMac Bankcorp, after helping to bail out Bear Stearns. That leaves about 90 financial institutions -- out of about 7,500 -- set to go under.

Meanwhile, portfolio manager Adrian Mastracci of Vancouver-based CKM Wealth Management offers sound tips for homebuyers:

- Consider a condominium or townhouse as a starter home.

Remember that in addition to the purchase price of a home, you may have legal and realtor costs, expenses for moving, renovations, furniture, repairs, maintenance, property taxes, insurance and utilities.

- Save 20 per cent for a down payment to reduce extra fees, consider taking money from your registered retirement savings plan through the Home Buyers Plan, and forego making non-registered investments because you would need an 8.9-per-cent return to do better than paying down a 5.75-per-cent mortgage if you're in the 35-per-cent tax bracket.

The mortgage crisis has had a negative impact on everyone, not just homeowners. Elected officials are working hard to pass legislation that is designed to prevent future banking debacles. Unfortunately, history has proven that when legislators over-regulate banks that it tightens the reins on lending. This is done by raising the bar on what it takes to qualify for a mortgage or installment loan. Predictably, it’s the middle class that will feel the pinch more than anyone. Specifically, it’s the middle-class, self employed small business owner that be injured the worst.

Most people are aware that you can reduce your taxes by deducting expenses and qualified charitable contributions. What most people don’t realize is that small business owners live and die by those deductions. Tax rates have risen on the self employed more than any other segment in our society. To counter these tax hikes, legislators created more “loop-holes” write off’s and deductions for small business owners to use.

For this reason, small business owners rely on creative CPA’s to maximize their deductions in order to show less income and pay less taxes.There are nearly 23 million small businesses in America and over 35 million sole-proprietors and almost every one of them employ savvy CPA’s to keep them in the black. The draw-back is that by doing this most self employed borrowers are unable to prove enough income on paper when applying for a loan or a mortgage.

Traditional mortgage lending practices of yester-year required that borrower’s prove sufficient income when taking out a loan. Over the years, taxes have risen for small business owners at staggering rates, far above what they have for W2 employees. At the same time the self employed borrower's “provable” income has dwindled proportionately. Under traditional banking rules most of the self-employed people wouldn’t be able to qualify for business loans or mortgages. This would ultimately force small business owners out of business and cripple our would economy.

This new business paradigm literally forced the banking industry to create lending products that catered to small business owners who could not prove all of their income. These products were called “stated” income loans and did not require borrowers who had good credit to prove their income. These products originally required good credit and sufficient assets in order to qualify for them. Responsible guidelines and common sense underwriting kept default rates on these products in line with conventional mortgages. Unfortunately, as competition for this segment of borrowers stiffened between lenders the stringency to qualify for these mortgages softened, thus the mortgage crisis.

It is exactly this type of loan that our law-makers are trying to do away with through legislation. The new mortgage bill being bounced around has specific remedies for irresponsible lending. Meaning, if a bank loans you money and it can be proven in court (attorneys like this law by the way) that the bank was irresponsible in doing so they could be penalized. The definition of “irresponsible” is did the borrower have the capacity to repay the loan, meaning did they prove enough income. This bill will kill stated income loans, period.

So where does this leave the responsible self employed borrowers who needed these loans to live and operate their businesses? This leaves them with higher taxes. Should this bill pass self employed borrowers will be forced to claim more income each year on their tax returns in order to qualify for car loans, mortgages and even business loans. This will negate any of the loop-holes and deductions they were promised in lieu of higher taxes.

This means the government will rake in billions in extra revenue as a result of this bill. For example, let’s assume that a small business owner claimed $40,000 in income last year after deductions and business expenses. If she was in a 40% tax bracket she would pay roughly $16,000 in taxes. Under the new banking guidelines that same business owner may have to claim $80,000 In order to qualify for mortgages, car loans and business loans. Assuming she’s in the same tax bracket, she would now have to pay $32,000 in taxes.

Multiply $32,000 by 23 million business owners and that’s one huge pay-day for Uncle Sam. You can bet that the Senators pushing this bill through congress are well aware of this left handed tax raise. You will never hear them mention it either, I wonder why?. You will hear about the naughty lenders that put good wholesome red blooded Americans in the street through predatory lending practices. You will never hear about the 20 million business owners who paid their mortgages on time and actually need these loans to stay in business.