Canadians could be facing higher interest rates sooner than previously thought as a result of stubborn inflation and stronger economic growth, Bank of Canada Mark Carney said Wednesday.

Carney did not declare higher rates were on the way, but issued his clearest signal to date that his year-old commitment to keep the policy rate at the record 0.25 per cent until July was "expressly conditional" on inflation remaining tame.

In a speech to a business audience, the bank governor noted that both underlying core inflation and economic growth have grown slightly stronger, although broadly proceeding as expected.
The tip-off to economists was that he changed his language on his conditional commitment on interest rates, which has led to historically low rates for both consumers and businesses in Canada and helped the country recover from recession.

"This commitment is expressly conditional on the outlook for inflation," he told the Ottawa Economic Association.

It was the first time Carney has undercut the commitment in such pointed language.
Later, Carney downplayed the significance, joking with reporters that he needed to used different words to keep the media's attention.

But economists said the distinction was significant.
"They still have considerable latitude, but the changes that would be required to their forecast are consistent with hiking rates sooner than markets are anticipating," said Derek Holt, Scotiabank's vice-president of economics. He said Carney may move as early as June 1.

But Holt stressed that Carney's overall message to Canadians is that rates will remain low by historical standards for some time.
"No matter what, we emerge from this with lower rates at the end point of the hiking campaign than in past cycles. He's saying the outlook is clouded with risks and there's a number of reasons to expect growth to be lower than past cycles."

Core inflation - which excludes volatile items like energy - has been stubbornly sticky the past few months, with the index rising to 2.1 per cent in February. That's the first time it has been above the central bank's target of two per cent in more than a year.

And Carney pointed out that the economy has performed better than he thought when the bank issued its last forecast in January, predicting growth of 2.9 per cent this year. Since then, several private sector economists have increased their projections and Carney is expected to do the same at the next scheduled forecast date on April 22.

At a news conference following his speech, Carney warned against reading in too much optimism in his assessment.
"It wasn't that rosy a message," he said. He cautioned that low U.S. demand and the high Canadian dollar, which was trading below 98 cents US on Wednesday but still high by recent standards, were acting as "significant drags" on the economy.

On a longer term basis, Carney's message to Canadians was positively dark, warning that the country needs to address its "abysmal" productivity record and that the world needs to follow through with reforms to address global imbalances, particularly China's undervalued currency.

Carney calculated that unless the country improves its productivity or output per unit of work, Canadians can expect to lose a total of $30,000 in real income over the next decade.
"Canada does underperform," he said. "We are not as productive as we could be. Our potential growth is slowing. Moreover, this is occurring as the very nature of the global economy ... is under threat."

With interest rates at a record low, a growing number of people are looking to purchase a home. Every homebuyer faces the age-old question of whether to choose a fixed or variable rate mortgage.

"The question of whether to lock in to a longer-term fixed mortgage rate or stay in a variable rate has become an increasingly complex and important debate," said Doug Porter, Deputy Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets.

"Short-term rates are at historic lows and pressure is likely to build for higher rates in the year ahead."
Research shows that over the past 30 years it has been more cost-effective for borrowers to have a variable rate mortgage 82 per cent of the time. However, under the current environment, Porter points out there are a number of factors to consider before assuming the variable rate is the hands-down winner:

-  Canada has been in a long-term declining rate environment since the
        early 1980s.
     -  The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is now as low as it can go, so
        there is no further downside for variable rates. The surprises can
        only be to the high side from here.
     -  Fixed rates were advantageous during only two recent periods - through
        the late 1970s and in the late 1980s; in both cases ahead of a period
        of rising interest rates, as is the case now.

The Case for Staying Fixed

A conventional fixed rate mortgage can mitigate a number of risks. Although inflation has not been a problem since 1991, there is a risk of an inflation flare-up as global central banks keep the pedal to the policy metal, and amid record government deficits.

The Bank of Canada could be forced to raise interest rates aggressively, driving variable mortgage rates higher, but leaving Canadians with fixed rates relatively unscathed. Plus, fixed rates are currently very attractive given that short-term rates are already as low as they can go.

The Case for Going Variable

The advantage to a variable rate mortgage is that it has been consistently less costly over time. As well, the current outlook for inflation remains benign, which will likely keep price pressures at bay well into 2011. The soaring Canadian dollar is putting additional downward pressure on prices, reducing the near-term need for the Bank of Canada to raise rates.

There is also some risk to locking in as fixed rates could fall if the economy performs worse than anticipated. Even as rates start to rise, Canadians can always lock into a fixed rate at a later date.

The decision depends on the individual. For those who do not have a lot of financial flexibility - such as first-time home buyers and those who would run into difficulty from an upswing in interest rates - the moderate extra cost of peace of mind you can get from a fixed rate may be a price worth paying.

There is also a reasonable scenario where fixed rates may actually prove to be a cheaper alternative at this point. That's particularly the case given some recent cuts in long-term fixed rates, such as BMO's current special rate of 4.09 per cent for a five-year fixed mortgage. BMO Economics' view is that variable rates will climb only moderately, but by enough to tilt the balance in favour of current fixed rates.

"The most important thing a current or first-time homeowner can do is talk to a knowledgeable mortgage expert about their situation and make decisions based on their particular circumstances," said Jane Yuen, Senior Manager, Mortgages, BMO Bank of Montreal. "So come in to a branch or contact a mortgage expert to decide on the type of mortgage that is best for you at this point in your life."

For example, a $200,000 mortgage with a term of 25 years and an interest rate of 2.25 per cent has monthly payments of $876.26. For the same mortgage with an interest rate of five per cent, the monthly payments become $1,169.18.

And this doesn't only apply to variable-rate mortgages, but to fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up for renewal, Tal said.

"It's not just variable rates, because five years from now the rates will be much higher, so you don't want to find yourself in a situation five years from now where you can't afford the house," he said.

"It's important to be extremely prudent and not to be totally blinded by those rates."

Both John Turner, director of mortgages at BMO, and ING's Beaudry said they've seen an increase in the number of people opting for fixed-rate mortgages to ensure some certainty when interest rates begin to rise again.

"In the first six months (of 2009), we saw well over 60 per cent of our applications being for variable-rate mortgages, and in particular in our case five-year variable-rate mortgages," Beaudry said.

"Towards the latter part of the summer, until now, the trend has reversed to where we're seeing about 70 to 80 per cent of our applications going for five-year fixed-rate mortgages."

Turner agreed, saying 60 to 70 per cent of BMO's customers were opting for variable-rate mortgages in the past, but lately "there's been a slight shift to fixed."

The key is finding a monthly payment you feel comfortable with and then thinking ahead - if you have a variable-rate mortgage, or a fixed-rate mortgage that's coming up for renewal soon, will you be able to afford to continue to make your payments if interest rates go up?

Turner said now is the time to begin making more frequent payments, while interest rates are still low, if you can afford it. This will reduce your principal more quickly and will mean lower payments down the road when interest rates are higher.

"For example, if you have a $200,000 mortgage and you opt to pay biweekly (instead of monthly), you knock four years off your mortgage and save about $47,000 in interest just by doing that," he said.

As well, if you have a variable-rate mortgage, it's important to keep an eye on interest rates and lock in if you feel they're getting too high, said Jim Murphy, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, or CAAMP.

The association also recommends that homeowners renew their mortgages before the scheduled renewal dates given the current low level of interest rates.

However, Murphy predicted that when interest rates do start to go up it will be a gradual climb, and Canadians shouldn't worry about a sudden jump in the number of people who are forced to default on their mortgages.

"I think people are predicting that rates will start to increase in 2010 at some point in time, but it'll be more of a slow, measured increase as it goes up, and most Canadians who have variable products will have the ability to lock in," Murphy said.

CAAMP says the volumes of residential mortgage credit outstanding is forecast to grow by seven per cent between 2009 and 2011, and is predicted to pass $1 trillion in 2010. The average mortgage interest rate was 4.55 per cent as of October, down from 5.41 per cent a year ago.

The price or amount that someone pays for the transitory use of someone else's funds is called interest. Interest could also mean the payment that someone receives for giving up the ability to spend money temporarily for the purpose of lending the money to someone else.


The definitions clearly describe the relationship between a lender and a borrower. Lenders would not willingly allow anyone to borrow or allow him or herself the sacrifice of not spending money if there is no interest. On the other hand, borrowers would be only too happy to spend if they do not have to worry about interest rates.

Before exploring the outlook for the US dollar in 2008, it is important to understand that decoupling in the global economy was a primary factor for the dollar’s weakness in 2007. As US growth slowed, growth in the rest of the world remained resilient thanks to the demand from countries like China, India and the Middle East.

When the US began to ease interest rates in August, many central banks in countries such like Australia continued to raise rates since growth was steady enough for them to focus on tackling inflation. In fact, up until the Bank of England’s and Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut in December, the US was the only central bank to cut interest rates in 2007. This decoupling of growth was one of the main factors that led to the out performance of the Euro, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, against the US dollar last year.

As we enter 2008, we are beginning to see recoupling in the global economy. In second half of last year, the expansion in the UK and Canada( Mortgage rates ) began to slow materially as economic data weakened, indicating that these countries were no longer resilient to weaker US growth. The ripple effects of the US subprime crisis has impacted many countries, especially the UK, who has relied on housing, finance and the public sector for growth over the past few years.

Chinks in the armor are also beginning to show in the Eurozone despite the central bank’s persistently hawkish monetary policy stance. If growth slows even further in the US or the other countries, the central banks that have been reluctant to ease rates last year may be forced to do so. The UK for example has already cut rates and they are expected to again in 2008. These are where the surprise elements lie for the currency market because the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 100bp this past year.
Another rate cut from them will not be much of a surprise, but if the Eurozone begins to cut interest rates as well, it would mark a significant shift in monetary policy, which in turn could result in a major shift to the outlook for the currency.