Canadian CEOs don’t think that the country’s real estate market is in a bubble, but that doesn’t mean they’re optimistic about further growth.

A recent Compas Inc. poll shows that business leaders expect a rise in residential real estate prices over the next 12 months of just 1.75%. That’s a modest prediction, given that real estate prices jumped 18% in the past year, and that over the past 20 years, they increased on average by 3.4%.

Like the executives polled, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) expects to see continued growth in housing prices as well as increased buying and selling through the first half of 2010. Both CREA and the poll respondents said many homebuyers are looking to purchase homes before the harmonized sales tax comes into effect. “B.C. and Ontario are likely to see house prices drop in the latter two quarters of this year, following the adoption of the HST,” said one executive.

Rising interest rates are also expected to cool the market. Some of Canada’s big banks have already begun to adjust their historically low rates with recent hikes in the cost of fixed-rate mortgages.

The Canadian housing market tumbled following the international financial crisis in 2008, but it experienced a quick rebound, starting in 2009. In total, Canada’s housing prices have increased by 92% since the beginning of 2000, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Prices Index.

But according to the chief executives, the housing market faces years of slow growth. Two years from now they expect average residential prices to be up by 5% overall. They believe that over the next five years, prices will experience an overall increase of 13.9%.

The executives also weighed in on which major markets will see the strongest prices over the next five years. Respondents expect Vancouver, which saw prices increase by 22% in the last year, to continue to have strong growth. The executives polled also see strong markets in Calgary and Toronto, but expect Ottawa and Montreal to experience the least growth.

The Canadian housing market has seen a stronger and faster rebound from the recession than any other segment of the economy, due in large part to enticingly low mortgage rates.

But rates this low - 5.59 per cent for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage and 2.25 per cent for a five-year variable-rate mortgage at one bank - can't last forever, and experts are advising borrowers to prepare for higher rates within the next 12 months.

"We have to realize those are emergency interest rates," said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.

"Interest rates will rise - it's just a question of time, it's not a question of if. And if that's the case, we have to make sure that when we borrow this money we can afford the same mortgage 200 or 300 basis points higher. That's the key responsibility now of borrowers and lenders, to make sure that what we do, we do it in a prudent way."

Depending on whether they are fixed or floating-rate, mortgages are tied to either the bond market or the Bank of Canada's key lending rate, which are closely related. The central bank's rate has been sitting at a record low of 0.25 per cent since the spring and it has said it will keep it steady until at least next June to help stimulate the ailing economy.

On Wednesday, three of Canada's biggest banks - Royal Bank (TSX:RY), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and TD Bank (TSX:TD) - announced that they will cut posted rates for fixed-rate mortgages by up to 0.25 percentage points. On Thursday, CIBC (TSX:CM), Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB) and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) followed suit by cutting their five-year mortgages by 0.25 per cent to 5.59 per cent, in the case of CIBC and Scotiabank, and 5.6 per cent at Laurentian.

But mortgage lenders agree that rates are nearing the bottom and will begin to rise again in 2010.

"The only sort of assurance that you hear in the marketplace is the Bank of Canada's going to try to maintain that rate until June. But past that, there are already warnings that if there need to be adjustments, the adjustments could be a little more abrupt than we've been used to in the past," said Martin Beaudry, vice-president of retail lending at ING Direct.

CIBC's Tal said that with rates this low, "it's almost a crime not to take a mortgage out," but warned that consumers need to be prepared for higher interest rates later on and what this could mean for their personal finances.

For example, a $200,000 mortgage with a term of 25 years and an interest rate of 2.25 per cent has monthly payments of $876.26. For the same mortgage with an interest rate of five per cent, the monthly payments become $1,169.18.

And this doesn't only apply to variable-rate mortgages, but to fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up for renewal, Tal said.

"It's not just variable rates, because five years from now the rates will be much higher, so you don't want to find yourself in a situation five years from now where you can't afford the house," he said.

"It's important to be extremely prudent and not to be totally blinded by those rates."

First time home buyers could be thrown a lifeline under plans being considered by the Treasury to underwrite 'risky' mortgages, allowing people with only small deposits to buy homes.

Since the credit crunch took hold, banks have demanded far tougher criteria for lending, asking buyers to provide between 25% and 30% of the price of a home as a deposit.

There were 30,000 loans to first time buyers in the first three months of 2009 against an average of more than 100,000 a quarter in the previous decade.

But the government is now studying a scheme used in Canada in the hope of encouraging banks and building societies to step up their lending. The Canadian programme requires all mortgages secured with a deposit of 20% or less to be insured by the government or private insurers, giving the banks more confidence to lend.

The Treasury has taken soundings from specialist insurance companies such as Genworth Financial, which suggest that the Canadian housing market has withstood the pressures of the global financial crisis better than most.

If the Treasury copied the scheme it might have to act as the insurer in the first instance before stepping back to underwrite insurance from private sector companies – opening the government to considerable criticism as it would put further taxpayer money at risk at a time when public finances are already stretched.

The amount of money flowing in the financial system still remains a concern for the government despite attempts to encourage lending through bank bailouts. Chancellor Alistair Darling is tomorrow scheduled to call in the major lenders to urge them to step up their lending to homeowners and small businesses to help stimulate the economy which has now contracted for five quarters in a row.

The possibility of the insurance scheme is outlined in the white paper on banking reform published this month and the Treasury promises an up-date in the autumn's prebudget report. "Some countries have adopted alternative models for mortgage insurance such as Canada where mortgage insurance is compulsory for all mortgages above a lower limit and below a maximum proportion of a home's value," the paper said.

"Some UK stakeholders have proposed that the government considers the benefits of international models like Canada. The government is interested in the lessons that may be learnt from the experiences of other countries and will update at the pre-budget report," the paper said.

The Treasury has made no decision on whether it would work here. The paper explains why it is being considered. "It is sometimes argued that this model helps provide borrowers with continued access to mortgage finance by encouraging risk sharing between insurers and lenders, and helping ensure that lenders do not take excessive risks when the economy is growing and do not withdraw from higher LTV lending during periods of economic disruption," the paper said.

But Treasury officials are also mindful of the pitfalls of the scheme which can push up the price of loans to first time buyers and others with small deposits. It might also be accused of trying to promote risky lending again or breath life into mortgage indemnity guarantees which lenders have charged customers for high loan to value loans but were largely scrapped in the mid 1990s.

The idea is being pushed by specialist insurers who might sell the necessary insurance to the banks. Genworth Financial, a US-based company, is among those to have submitted proposals. It is suggesting that the state would act as direct guarantor initially and that private sector players would step in to allow the government to "reduce its role from being a direct insurer to a guarantor of the private mortgage insurance providers".

"We urge the government to consider developing a partnership with mortgage insurance providers in order to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution for the wholesale mortgage market," Genworth said.

Canadian housing starts fell by a greater-than-expected 12.3 percent in February on declines from the single and multiple dwellings sectors, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Monday.

New home construction dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 134,600 units from 153,500 units in January, CMHC said.

The number of starts in February was below the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 145,000 starts.

Urban single family home construction declined 11 percent to 44,500 units last month from 50,000 units in January. New construction of multiple dwellings, such as condos, fell 17.5 percent to an annual rate of 63,300 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in February.

The Canadian housing market is cooling but is not facing a U. S. style meltdown, builders here say.

"A few commentators have draw an a parallel between the Canadian housing situation and the extreme difficulties in the housing market in the United States," the Canadian Home Builders' Association said in a report yesterday that dismisses such comparisons.

"There is absolutely no merit in drawing such a parallel," the construction lobby said in a report that contends the pace of housing construction in Canada is merely returning to a level that is consistent with underlying housing requirements following the boom of recent years.

"The housing situation in Canada is totally different from that of the U. S.," it said. "There will be some price moderation in some markets, but there is nothing to suggest that housing markets in Canada are vulnerable to the oversupplies and plunging prices that characterize many markets in the U. S.

"We did not experience the same housing boom conditions that occurred in the U. S., and there is no reason to expect that we are in for the serious pain they are currently suffering," it said.

To support its argument that the Canadian housing market is not going the way of the U. S. market, it cited a variety of differences:

-Unlike in the U. S., underwriting standards for qualifying mortgage borrowers in Canada have been maintained at prudent levels resulting in mortgage borrowers here being much more creditworthy.

-Canadian mortgage lenders never offered low initial 'teaser' rate mortgages that led to most of the difficulties for mortgage borrowers in the United States.

-Most mortgages in Canada are held by their original lender, not packaged and sold to third parties as is typical in the United States, and consequently, Canadian mortgage lenders have a vested interest in ensuring that their mortgage borrowers are creditworthy and not likely to default.