Housing starts rose more than expected in May, with increased construction seen in both single and multiple dwelling sectors, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts increased to 128,400 units during the month from 117,600 in April, CMHC said Monday.


"Housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009 and over the next several years to gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year," the Crown corporation said.

Economics expected housing starts to total 126,000 units in May.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts was up 11.1% to 107,800 units in May, CMHC said. Multiple unit urban starts rose to 60,900 units and single unit starts increased to 46,900 units -- with both categories rising by a similar 11.1% from the previous month.

"The increase in May is broadly based, encompassing both the singles and multiples segments," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.

Overall urban starts were up 22% in Ontario, 16.8% in the Prairies, 7.3% in Atlantic Canada and 3.3% in Quebec. Meanwhile, urban starts fell 5% in British Columbia.

Rural starts were little changed at 20,600 units in May.

"The broad-based nature of the increase in residential construction activity in May was an encouraging development for this beleaguered sector of the Canadian economy," said Millan Mulraine.

"Indeed, after plunging precipitously since late 2007, and appearing to be in free-fall in recent months, this rebound may be an indication that the sector is perhaps stabilizing.

"Nevertheless, with the Canadian labour market continuing to weaken and the overall economy remaining quite soft, we expect residential building activity to remain in the current depressed range for some time."

TABLE

Housing starts in May (seasonally adjusted):

Canada, all areas 128,400

Canada, rural areas 20,600

Canada, urban centres 107,800

Canada, singles, urban centres 46,900

Canada, multiples, urban centres 60,900

Atlantic region, urban centres 7,300

Quebec, urban centres 34,200

Ontario, urban centres 41,600

Prairie region, urban centres 15,300

British Columbia, urban centres 9,400

Canadian housing starts fell by a greater-than-expected 12.3 percent in February on declines from the single and multiple dwellings sectors, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Monday.

New home construction dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 134,600 units from 153,500 units in January, CMHC said.

The number of starts in February was below the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 145,000 starts.

Urban single family home construction declined 11 percent to 44,500 units last month from 50,000 units in January. New construction of multiple dwellings, such as condos, fell 17.5 percent to an annual rate of 63,300 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in February.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the downturn in the economy will drive new-home construction to a nine-year low in 2009, a forecast that differs significantly from what the Crown corporation was saying in November.

But Bill Clark, senior economist at CMHC, said it was impossible last quarter to predict the economic decline we are seeing and the impact it would have on the economy.

Three months ago, CMHC forecast 177,975 homes would be built this year. Thursday, that figure was adjusted to 160,250 -- a level not seen since 2000. The forecast would mean a 24% decline from the 211,056 units constructed last year.

"There have been some issues that have come up in the economy that were not foreseen, that's been the case for much of the forecasting," Mr. Clark said.

The drop in construction would mark the end of arguably the strongest housing market in Canadian history, a seven-year run of more than 200,000 units built each year. It would also mean the industry is building fewer than the 175,000 units the country needs based on demographic estimates.

"There has been also a lot of new listings lately," said Mr. Clark, referring to the market for existing-home sales, as one of the reasons for the contraction in new construction. He said consumers have a wider choice in the existing-home market and that's driving them away from buying a new home.

CMHC's forecast says existing-home sales will drop almost 15% this year from 2008 while the average sale price will fall by 5.2% to $287,900. It is predicting a modest recovery in 2010 with sales up about 9% but the average sale price will improve by only $200.

Benjamin Tal, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets, says the lack of liquidity in the housing market makes it difficult to forecast where prices will eventually settle.

"The resale market is basically paralyzed," said Mr. Tal, referring to the fact that year-over-year sales are down as much as 50% in some markets, such as Vancouver. "The market is in a state of shock. Nothing is happening. The prices we are getting now are just a rough proxy. It's not an accurate reading."

Mr. Tal said that as the unemployment rate rises, house prices will fall as people are forced to sell. He doesn't see a correction comparable to the United States.

"The unemployment rate will rise from 7% to 9% but that's still 91% people employed although they will be concernd about their job. What do you do when you are concerned about your job, you save your money. The housing market will be boring," Mr. Tal said.

Hamilton builder Jeff Paikin said he still feels confident in the market and will keep building but like many in his industry he says financing issues are making life tougher for him.

"The banks are making it more difficult to access capital. It is available but on more stringent terms," he says. Where once you could get financing for condominium with 50% of the building presold, the figure is now 65%.

"It is harder to get to that presale level because there is less urgency to buy," says Mr. Paikin. "The pressure is on because you have to get to the 65%, so you can get your financing and start building so the first people who bought into a project don't walk away."

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a Canada Government Crown Corporation which can provide insurance coverage on your mortgage in case of default.

That is if you can no longer service your mortgage and the lender incurred a loss as a result, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will compensate the lender for the loss.


Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation assists potential home buyers to purchase a home with little or no down payment sooner because you do not have to save for a downpayment.

Why do I need to buy mortgage insurance!

If you are borrowing 80% or less of the value of a property, you do not need to buy Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation insurance.

If you are borrowing more than 80% (referred as High Ratio Mortgage), you must buy insurance coverage from a mortgage insurance company before any financial institution will lend you the money.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will provide insurance coverage, subject to borrowers meeting certain criteria, up to 100% of the value of a property.

Borrowers pay a premium ranging from 0.5% to 3.10% of the mortgage amount, depending on the loan to value ratio. The higher the ratio the higher is the premium.

There used to be a limit on the value of the property if it needs mortgage insurance. This requirement has now been eliminated and you can purchase a property of any value for mortgage insurance purposes.

Imagine what the premium will be on a $400,000.00 mortgage at maximum 3.1%. That's a cool $12,400.00. If you do not have the cash, the premium may be added to the mortgage amount and repayment spread over the amortization period chosen.

Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company of Canada is a public company that can also provide default insurance coverage for high ratio mortgage.

For new mortgage the maximum amortization period is 25 years. Recently Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has extended the amortization period to 30 and 35 years at an additional premium of 0.25%. Genworth Financial Canada is offering a 30 year mortgage at a 0.2% premium and a 35 year mortgage at a 0.5% premium. The effect of a longer amortization period is that the monthly mortgage payment is reduced to a more affordable level for many borrowers.

Please note that you do not need to get in touch with CMHC or Genworth to apply for a mortgage insurance. Your mortgage broker or bank mortgage officer will apply on your behalf.

What is my chances of getting mortgage insurance?

If you have a good and proven track record, a good steady job, your income is sufficient to service your monthly mortgage payment and other debts, you have a good chance of getting approved.

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