The Canadian housing market has seen a stronger and faster rebound from the recession than any other segment of the economy, due in large part to enticingly low mortgage rates.

But rates this low - 5.59 per cent for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage and 2.25 per cent for a five-year variable-rate mortgage at one bank - can't last forever, and experts are advising borrowers to prepare for higher rates within the next 12 months.

"We have to realize those are emergency interest rates," said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.

"Interest rates will rise - it's just a question of time, it's not a question of if. And if that's the case, we have to make sure that when we borrow this money we can afford the same mortgage 200 or 300 basis points higher. That's the key responsibility now of borrowers and lenders, to make sure that what we do, we do it in a prudent way."

Depending on whether they are fixed or floating-rate, mortgages are tied to either the bond market or the Bank of Canada's key lending rate, which are closely related. The central bank's rate has been sitting at a record low of 0.25 per cent since the spring and it has said it will keep it steady until at least next June to help stimulate the ailing economy.

On Wednesday, three of Canada's biggest banks - Royal Bank (TSX:RY), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and TD Bank (TSX:TD) - announced that they will cut posted rates for fixed-rate mortgages by up to 0.25 percentage points. On Thursday, CIBC (TSX:CM), Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB) and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) followed suit by cutting their five-year mortgages by 0.25 per cent to 5.59 per cent, in the case of CIBC and Scotiabank, and 5.6 per cent at Laurentian.

But mortgage lenders agree that rates are nearing the bottom and will begin to rise again in 2010.

"The only sort of assurance that you hear in the marketplace is the Bank of Canada's going to try to maintain that rate until June. But past that, there are already warnings that if there need to be adjustments, the adjustments could be a little more abrupt than we've been used to in the past," said Martin Beaudry, vice-president of retail lending at ING Direct.

CIBC's Tal said that with rates this low, "it's almost a crime not to take a mortgage out," but warned that consumers need to be prepared for higher interest rates later on and what this could mean for their personal finances.

For example, a $200,000 mortgage with a term of 25 years and an interest rate of 2.25 per cent has monthly payments of $876.26. For the same mortgage with an interest rate of five per cent, the monthly payments become $1,169.18.

And this doesn't only apply to variable-rate mortgages, but to fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up for renewal, Tal said.

"It's not just variable rates, because five years from now the rates will be much higher, so you don't want to find yourself in a situation five years from now where you can't afford the house," he said.

"It's important to be extremely prudent and not to be totally blinded by those rates."

The dramatic recovery of the resale housing market – with the pace of activity and prices setting another record in October – has some economists wondering if Canada is in the midst of a housing bubble.

Economists at Scotia Capital Inc. are of the view that housing “is becoming an over-valued asset class.”

Economist Michael Gregory of BMO Nesbitt Burns, on the other hand, says Canada is in the midst of a “booming rebound” – but not a bubble.

And Stewart Hall, an economist at HSBC Securities (Canada), says it is too soon to characterize the housing market activity as a bubble yet, but the situation bears watching.

Bubbles are formed when excessive speculation enters a market, pushing prices higher than justified by market fundamentals. However, asset bubbles inevitably pop, leading to sharp price declines.

'This is becoming an over-valued asset class'

“Is Canada in a housing bubble? Probably, but low rates, mortgage innovation and a relative shortage of new supply are likely too keep it going for a while yet,” Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes said in a research note Monday.

“… Now that last fall's pent-up demand has been released, the three forces of low interest rates, transferring future sales to the present via mortgage innovation, and modest new supply can keep Canadian housing markets humming for some time yet before the eventuality of a softer market on rising rates in a future relative demand vacuum set in.”

After CREA released the October numbers, Mr. Holt and Ms. Cordes expanded on their view.

“The Canadian Real Estate Association has reported October sales and prices. The results are a bright spot in the Canadian economy, but with prices up 20 per cent over year-ago levels and at all-time highs by virtually every measure, this is becoming an over-valued asset class in our opinion,” the Scotia Capital team said.

“Flagging rich valuations is not, however, tantamount to predicting anything imminent by way of give-back on prices,” the added.

“In fact, they could well push further into record territory next year before risks build.”

Examples of non-qualifying work

• Landscaping, other than to restore the lot to its condition prior to the recognized work
• Construction of outdoor play equipment o
  
• Interior decoration (decorator's service)
  
• Erecting or repairing a fence, low wall, etc.
  
• Drilling a well, installation of a septic tank and septic field
  
• Installation of household appliances
  
• Installation of a swimming pool, sauna, hot tub, etc.
  
• Refurbishment of access points (footpaths, driveway, etc.), unless made necessary as a result of the recognized work
  
• Work aimed exclusively at repairs (repairing a leak, a door, etc.) or maintenance (application of paint to walls solely to spruce up the appearance)

Qualified contractor

The contractor must, at the time the agreement is entered into between the owner and the contractor, be a person or partnership with an establishment in Québec. Must not be the owner or co-owner of the eligible residential unit, or the spouse of one of the owners of the eligible residential unit at the time the home improvement or renovation work is carried out hold an appropriate licence issued by the Régie du bâtiment du Québec. Note that an individual who carries out the improvements or renovations on his or her own principal place of residence may
not claim this tax credit.
Claiming the credit

You may claim the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation on your 2009 income tax return if you are resident in Québec on December 31, 2009. You must send with your return a form indicating all of the information related to the work carried out, such as:

• a description of the work
• the cost of the work
• the registration number assigned under the Act respecting the Québec sales tax (QST) to the person who carried out the work
• the licence number issued by the Régie du bâtiment du Québec to the contractor carrying out the work (if applicable)

It is not necessary to provide your receipts or supporting documents when you file your income tax return. However, you must keep these documents for six years following the year to which they apply as Revenu Québec could audit you regarding this credit.

Documents

IN-179-V

Tax Credit for Home Improvement and Renovation

Important Note

These texts on the said programs from Canada or Quebec are provided for information purpose only; you must consult the official Canada http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/sgmnts/hmwnr/hrtc/lgblty-prd-eng.html and Quebec http://www.revenu.gouv.qc.ca/eng/particulier/impots/impot/credit_remb/renovation/index.asp Internet sites and documentation to make sure you qualify. We decline all responsibility in regard to any error or omissions, the readers are responsible to check this information directly with the proper government agencies.

If you meet certain eligibility requirements, you may be entitled to a refundable tax credit for the 2009 taxation year for expenses incurred under a residential renovation agreement entered into in 2009 for home improvements or renovations.


The tax credit is equal to 20% of the eligible expenses in excess of $7,500. The maximum amount of eligible expenses is $20,000 for a maximum credit of $2,500.

Calculator

To obtain an estimate of the tax credit for home improvement and renovation that you could be entitled to for the 2009 taxation year, use the calculator available on the website of the Ministère des finances.

Eligibility requirements

To be eligible for the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation, you must:

• Own an eligible residential unit located in Québec
• Have the qualifying work for improvement or renovation carried out at your principal place of residence
• A qualified contractor must be hired to carry out the work under the terms of an agreement entered into after December 31, 2008 and before January 1, 2010.
• The expenses incurred to carry out the work must be paid no later than June 30, 2010.

Eligible residential units

An eligible residential unit is a residence built before 2009. The individual who incurs the home improvement or renovation expenses must be the owner (or co-owner) at the time the expenses are incurred. The residential unit must not only be the owner's principal place of residence, but also:

• an individual house
• a manufactured home or a mobile home permanently installed
• a unit in a building held in divided co-ownership
• an apartment in a building held in undivided co-ownership or held by a sole owner

Qualifying work

Qualifying work that gives entitlement to the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation consists of:

• the renovation, modification, improvement, conversion or expansion of an individual's eligible residential unit, including the addition of structures adjoining or incidental to the unit
• the work needed to restore a lot to its condition before the work described above was carried out

Examples of qualifying work

Division of rooms (knocking down walls or addition of partitions)
Finishing of a basement, attic or garage
Installation of a fireplace, a heat pump or an air conditioning system
Installation of an alarm system or home automation system
Insulation (including for a garage)
Replacement of the plumbing, electrical system, heating system, air exchange system
Replacement of the roofing, rainwater gutters and chimney
Replacement of doors and windows
Replacement of sewage treatment systems (septic tanks and septic field)
Renovation of a kitchen, bathroom, washroom
Expansion of a house built before 2009
Construction work on structures adjoining or incidental to a house built before 2009