Now it can be said – the US is officially in a recession, and other countries around the globe are very quickly following suit. Predominating the country’s financial headaches is the real estate meltdown, or subprime crash, as experts call it. The question being asked is, was overinflated real estate the cause of the US and ultimately the global recession? If so, how?


New York Times economics columnist David Leonhardt explains it this way: In 1998, Wall Street started making it easier for home buyers to apply for loans, and packaged those loans to global investors as CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations. To make these investments even more enticing, Wall Street introduced the idea of subprime mortgages - ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) loans with high interest rates packaged in the guise of low initial interest rates.

High interest rates for the borrowers meant higher returns for the investors, while low credit score borrowers now had the opportunity to buy homes despite their normally unacceptable credit picture. The lax lending policies allowed people to borrow as much as 50% more than the real value of the house with a minimal down payment even as the high interest rates pushed prices up, resulting in grossly overpriced home prices. A case in point is San Francisco, where the median home price is currently 11.6% of the median annual salary.

Investors sought to accelerate their earnings by borrowing funds to invest. The extremely high loan interest rates caused many of the borrowers to default on their loans, and as home prices reached the point where borrowers couldn’t afford to pay their loans anymore and people stopped buying because prices were just way too high, the financial village came toppling down, one by one in a domino effect.

First to fall were Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, the country’s two largest mortgage finance lenders that had bought the loans from the mortgage originators, repackaged them as mortgage-backed securities, and sold them to the global investors. Next came the banks and investment companies with heavy exposures on these sub prime loans such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and as the banks fell so did the global investors who had invested in these mortgage investments. As the companies fell, investors panicked and engaged in a wave of selling, causing the stock markets to crash.

Industry insiders say that unless the number of foreclosures goes down, home prices will continue to decline and it will take longer before the real estate crisis bottoms out.

The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indices show that home prices continue to fall – as of May, Phoenix reported an annual decline of 31.9%, Las Vegas was down 31.3%, San Francisco down by 29.5%, Miami down by 28.4%, Los Angeles down by 27.6%, and San Diego 26.3%.

With more and more companies downsizing workforces, it looks like we’re in for quite a long wait. In the meantime, here’s our advice: if you’ve got a home, hold on to it. If you’re in the market to buy a house, do your due diligence and homework – compare prices, read the fine print, and make sure you can afford to pay before you sign that loan.

Housing starts rose more than expected in May, with increased construction seen in both single and multiple dwelling sectors, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts increased to 128,400 units during the month from 117,600 in April, CMHC said Monday.

"Housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009 and over the next several years to gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year," the Crown corporation said.

Economics expected housing starts to total 126,000 units in May.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts was up 11.1% to 107,800 units in May, CMHC said. Multiple unit urban starts rose to 60,900 units and single unit starts increased to 46,900 units -- with both categories rising by a similar 11.1% from the previous month.

"The increase in May is broadly based, encompassing both the singles and multiples segments," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.

Overall urban starts were up 22% in Ontario, 16.8% in the Prairies, 7.3% in Atlantic Canada and 3.3% in Quebec. Meanwhile, urban starts fell 5% in British Columbia.

Rural starts were little changed at 20,600 units in May.

"The broad-based nature of the increase in residential construction activity in May was an encouraging development for this beleaguered sector of the Canadian economy," said Millan Mulraine.

"Indeed, after plunging precipitously since late 2007, and appearing to be in free-fall in recent months, this rebound may be an indication that the sector is perhaps stabilizing.

"Nevertheless, with the Canadian labour market continuing to weaken and the overall economy remaining quite soft, we expect residential building activity to remain in the current depressed range for some time."

TABLE

Housing starts in May (seasonally adjusted):

Canada, all areas 128,400

Canada, rural areas 20,600

Canada, urban centres 107,800

Canada, singles, urban centres 46,900

Canada, multiples, urban centres 60,900

Atlantic region, urban centres 7,300

Quebec, urban centres 34,200

Ontario, urban centres 41,600

Prairie region, urban centres 15,300

British Columbia, urban centres 9,400

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) is raising medium-term mortgage rates by up to half a percentage point while lowering some shorter-term rates effective Wednesday.

The rate for five-year closed mortgages, one of the most commonly chosen by Canadian homeowners, goes up 0.4 percentage point to 5.85 per cent.

That's on top of a 0.2-point increase in the five-year rate announced last week by TD and several other major banks.

Analysts have noted that rates for mid-to long-term mortgages are going up in response to higher yields being paid on bond markets, where lenders finance much of their mortgage business.

The biggest change announced Tuesday by TD will be with three-year closed mortgages, which will rise by 0.5 percentage point to 4.65 per cent. The posted rate for four-year closed mortgages rises by 0.3 point to 5.14 per cent.

TD is lowering its six-month convertible mortgage rate by 0.15 point to 4.6 per cent while its one-year close mortgage rate falls 0.15 point to 3.75 per cent.

The short-term rates are influence more by the Bank of Canada's policy rates, which are at a historical low.

There's the usual talk about what the latest Case-Shiller house price data mean for the next short term move in the real estate market. Has housing bottomed? If not, has the rate of decline slowed? And when will we see an upturn?

Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.

And it's startling.

We have just been through the biggest boom in real estate in American history. The subsequent bust surely hasn't finished.

Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.

Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.

Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.

You can often do better on long-term inflation protected government bonds.

And real estate often costs 2% or more a year in property taxes, condo fees, maintenance, insurance and the like.

Conventional wisdom long held that home ownership was a route to wealth, and the imputed rent -- in other words, the right to live in your home -- was just part of the value you got from it. Under that widespread view, the recent housing bust was simply a temporary, though deep, pothole.

Yet for very many people, even over the past 15 or 20 years, the imputed rent may have been all, or nearly all, the real value they actually got from their home.

Yes, it's only recent data. And it's only ten cities. But there's some reason to suspect these numbers may, if anything, flatter real estate performance. After all, it's hard to look at the data and figure the bust is now over. And if they fall further, those long-term return figures will fall too.

Prices weren't just down 19% over the past year. They fell 2% just between February and March. And it's not the worst-hit markets that worry me the most -- Phoenix is down 53% from its peak, Miami 47%. That smells of capitulation. It's the other markets. New York and Boston are only down 20%. Denver's only down 14%.

Overall the ten- and 20-city Case-Shiller indices are merely back to mid-2003 levels. After the biggest boom and bust on record, history suggests things don't stop getting worse until they've gotten a lot worse than that.