First time home buyers could be thrown a lifeline under plans being considered by the Treasury to underwrite 'risky' mortgages, allowing people with only small deposits to buy homes.

Since the credit crunch took hold, banks have demanded far tougher criteria for lending, asking buyers to provide between 25% and 30% of the price of a home as a deposit.

There were 30,000 loans to first time buyers in the first three months of 2009 against an average of more than 100,000 a quarter in the previous decade.

But the government is now studying a scheme used in Canada in the hope of encouraging banks and building societies to step up their lending. The Canadian programme requires all mortgages secured with a deposit of 20% or less to be insured by the government or private insurers, giving the banks more confidence to lend.

The Treasury has taken soundings from specialist insurance companies such as Genworth Financial, which suggest that the Canadian housing market has withstood the pressures of the global financial crisis better than most.

If the Treasury copied the scheme it might have to act as the insurer in the first instance before stepping back to underwrite insurance from private sector companies – opening the government to considerable criticism as it would put further taxpayer money at risk at a time when public finances are already stretched.

The amount of money flowing in the financial system still remains a concern for the government despite attempts to encourage lending through bank bailouts. Chancellor Alistair Darling is tomorrow scheduled to call in the major lenders to urge them to step up their lending to homeowners and small businesses to help stimulate the economy which has now contracted for five quarters in a row.

The possibility of the insurance scheme is outlined in the white paper on banking reform published this month and the Treasury promises an up-date in the autumn's prebudget report. "Some countries have adopted alternative models for mortgage insurance such as Canada where mortgage insurance is compulsory for all mortgages above a lower limit and below a maximum proportion of a home's value," the paper said.

"Some UK stakeholders have proposed that the government considers the benefits of international models like Canada. The government is interested in the lessons that may be learnt from the experiences of other countries and will update at the pre-budget report," the paper said.

The Treasury has made no decision on whether it would work here. The paper explains why it is being considered. "It is sometimes argued that this model helps provide borrowers with continued access to mortgage finance by encouraging risk sharing between insurers and lenders, and helping ensure that lenders do not take excessive risks when the economy is growing and do not withdraw from higher LTV lending during periods of economic disruption," the paper said.

But Treasury officials are also mindful of the pitfalls of the scheme which can push up the price of loans to first time buyers and others with small deposits. It might also be accused of trying to promote risky lending again or breath life into mortgage indemnity guarantees which lenders have charged customers for high loan to value loans but were largely scrapped in the mid 1990s.

The idea is being pushed by specialist insurers who might sell the necessary insurance to the banks. Genworth Financial, a US-based company, is among those to have submitted proposals. It is suggesting that the state would act as direct guarantor initially and that private sector players would step in to allow the government to "reduce its role from being a direct insurer to a guarantor of the private mortgage insurance providers".

"We urge the government to consider developing a partnership with mortgage insurance providers in order to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution for the wholesale mortgage market," Genworth said.

The Bank of Canada offered a rosier, revised outlook on the economy Tuesday.

It now believes the economy is beginning to recover from recession and will perform better than expected in the next 18 months.

The central bank maintained its key overnight rate at the lowest possible level of 0.25 per cent, and committed to keep the rate there until the spring of 2010.

The revised outlook sees less shrinkage and more growth in the economy, according to Michael Kane of BNN.

"The bank of Canada now says the contraction will not be quite as bad as expected, and the expansion greater than expected," Kane told CTV News Channel.

"Previously it was expected that the Canadian economy would contract by 3 per cent this year, and then grow 2.5 per cent next year. They are moderating all those numbers now, and the latest expectation is for a smaller 2.3 per cent contraction this year, a slightly larger 3 per cent growth next year," Kane said.

Kane noted that measures taken by the bank and the federal government to help the economy from slipping too much -- such as stimulus funding and lower interest rates -- appear to be working.

The bank also said credit conditions have improved so much it is reducing the amount of money it is injecting into the system to support lending.

Despite signs long-term mortgage rates are creeping up, the housing market is continuing is bounce back to life according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In June 8.7% more homes were sold than in May.

It's the fifth straight month of increases -- a 17.9% increase over June 2008.

"This rebound reflects the releasing of a pent-up demand by buyers who moved to the sidelines towards the end of last year," said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

"Now there are signs the worst of the recession may be behind us, those people are emerging."

The bounce back was strongest in British Columbia where 39.8% more homes were sold in June this over the same month last year.

According to the CREA report,

Ontario was up 15.7%,

Quebec 9.8%,

Alberta 22.2%,

Saskat chewan 25.2%

Manitoba 0.2%.

This surge in home buying came despite a decision by Canada's five big banks last month to raise five-year fixed mortgage rates 40 basis points from 5.45% to 5.85%.

The decision was made despite the Bank of Canada's efforts to keep borrowing low by pledging to hold interest rates at the historic low of 0.25% until the middle of 2010.

Mary Webb, a senior economist with Scotiabank, says the low long-term interest rates in the spring were a reflection of a global economy with almost no signs of growth and that was bound to change.

"Now we're looking for a recovery, and not just in Canada but globally, and we're seeing it already in China and we expect growth to strengthen later this year and early next," Webb said.

With more people borrowing, banks are being forced to pay more to borrow the money they lend to home buyers and that drives up long-term interest rates, she said.

The worst of Canada's housing market woes appear to be past but the sector's rebound will be tenuous as a rise in mortgage rates and high unemployment limit the recovery in prices and sales.

Property experts say first-time buyers and Bank of Canada rate cuts have helped restore stability to a market that slumped from late 2008 to early this year, when the worst leg of the global financial crisis battered consumer confidence.

"We should be less fearful than we were six months ago, but I don't think we should be exuberant yet. The resale markets in Canada are very strong. May numbers were pretty good, and June numbers will be even better," said Will Dunning, an economic consultant who specializes in the housing market.

"But by July and into the fall there will be an offset of considerably slower activity. I don't think it's likely to go off a cliff. It'll depend on what happens in employment and the broader economy, and how that affects confidence."

Recent data suggests Canada's residential property market, which weathered the financial crisis much better than its hard-hit U.S. counterpart, has been thawing for several months.

The latest Canadian Real Estate Association data shows May resale home prices rose 0.4% to $319,757, topping the previous record set a year earlier. It was the first year-over-year increase since May last year. And sales activity climbed for a fourth straight month.

The industry group, which represents more than 97,000 real estate brokers and agents, also cut its forecast for a drop in home prices this year and said it expected sales activity to trend higher.

Meanwhile, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the national housing agency, forecast in its second-quarter outlook that new home construction is expected to decline to 141,900 units in 2009 but rebound next year.

Still, no one predicts the residential property market is headed back to the heady times seen between 2002 and 2007, when prices surged and outpaced income growth. In some cities, such as Vancouver, British Columbia, and Calgary, Alberta, home prices doubled and are now going through a sharp correction.

A "stable but unremarkable" period for the real estate market is expected this year, said Philip Soper, chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services, an arm of Canadian property giant Brookfield Properties Corp. that holds real estate broker brand Royal LePage.

"Stability is something you can't overemphasize in terms of its importance for the housing market right now."

Unless the global financial system succumbs to another crisis, analysts expect the Canadian home market is likely to stabilize further.

Activity from first-time buyers appears to be providing support because of stimulative measures by the federal government that allow these buyers to defray closing costs and withdraw more from retirement funds.

The Bank of Canada has also pledged to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2010, which could underpin confidence.

But the economy is still on shaky ground, contracting for the ninth straight month in April. And the unemployment rate spiked to an 11-year high in May, boosted by massive layoffs in the factories of Ontario.

Experts warn that further job losses in pockets of Canada's export-oriented economy could slow the momentum that has been gathering in the housing sector.

"We don't expect the recession to end until the fall. It's clear that the spring fling in housing markets, this remarkable surge in resales and prices, has been driven by record low mortgage rates," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

These record low rates, whether variable or fixed, had increased affordability for many buyers. But weakness in the bond market, caused in part by reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets, has pushed mortgage rates higher.

The posted rate on a five-year mortgage at Royal Bank of Canada, the country's largest lender, has risen to 5.85% from 5.25% in April.

Brookfield's Mr. Soper has been telling his management team to prepare for softness in the housing market in the second half.

"The advice I have been giving ... is to accept the recovery this spring with humility, to continue to plan for a difficult second half of the year although the comparables are going to be positive simply because the second half of 2008 was so poor," he said in an interview.

"But at least we have a stable market and stable prices, which is something that you need to encourage consumers to trade."