Montreal Mortgage Watch

Future Home Prices

2010-04-15T15:35:00.000-07:00

Canadian CEOs don’t think that the country’s real estate market is in a bubble, but that doesn’t mean they’re optimistic about further growth.

A recent Compas Inc. poll shows that business leaders expect a rise in residential real estate prices over the next 12 months of just 1.75%. That’s a modest prediction, given that real estate prices jumped 18% in the past year, and that over the past 20 years, they increased on average by 3.4%.

Like the executives polled, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) expects to see continued growth in housing prices as well as increased buying and selling through the first half of 2010. Both CREA and the poll respondents said many homebuyers are looking to purchase homes before the harmonized sales tax comes into effect. “B.C. and Ontario are likely to see house prices drop in the latter two quarters of this year, following the adoption of the HST,” said one executive.

Rising interest rates are also expected to cool the market. Some of Canada’s big banks have already begun to adjust their historically low rates with recent hikes in the cost of fixed-rate mortgages.

The Canadian housing market tumbled following the international financial crisis in 2008, but it experienced a quick rebound, starting in 2009. In total, Canada’s housing prices have increased by 92% since the beginning of 2000, according to the Teranet-National Bank House Prices Index.

But according to the chief executives, the housing market faces years of slow growth. Two years from now they expect average residential prices to be up by 5% overall. They believe that over the next five years, prices will experience an overall increase of 13.9%.

The executives also weighed in on which major markets will see the strongest prices over the next five years. Respondents expect Vancouver, which saw prices increase by 22% in the last year, to continue to have strong growth. The executives polled also see strong markets in Calgary and Toronto, but expect Ottawa and Montreal to experience the least growth.

Higher Interest Rates

2010-03-24T19:16:00.000-07:00

Canadians could be facing higher interest rates sooner than previously thought as a result of stubborn inflation and stronger economic growth, Bank of Canada Mark Carney said Wednesday.

Carney did not declare higher rates were on the way, but issued his clearest signal to date that his year-old commitment to keep the policy rate at the record 0.25 per cent until July was "expressly conditional" on inflation remaining tame.

In a speech to a business audience, the bank governor noted that both underlying core inflation and economic growth have grown slightly stronger, although broadly proceeding as expected.
The tip-off to economists was that he changed his language on his conditional commitment on interest rates, which has led to historically low rates for both consumers and businesses in Canada and helped the country recover from recession.

"This commitment is expressly conditional on the outlook for inflation," he told the Ottawa Economic Association.

It was the first time Carney has undercut the commitment in such pointed language.
Later, Carney downplayed the significance, joking with reporters that he needed to used different words to keep the media's attention.

But economists said the distinction was significant.
"They still have considerable latitude, but the changes that would be required to their forecast are consistent with hiking rates sooner than markets are anticipating," said Derek Holt, Scotiabank's vice-president of economics. He said Carney may move as early as June 1.

But Holt stressed that Carney's overall message to Canadians is that rates will remain low by historical standards for some time.
"No matter what, we emerge from this with lower rates at the end point of the hiking campaign than in past cycles. He's saying the outlook is clouded with risks and there's a number of reasons to expect growth to be lower than past cycles."

Core inflation - which excludes volatile items like energy - has been stubbornly sticky the past few months, with the index rising to 2.1 per cent in February. That's the first time it has been above the central bank's target of two per cent in more than a year.

And Carney pointed out that the economy has performed better than he thought when the bank issued its last forecast in January, predicting growth of 2.9 per cent this year. Since then, several private sector economists have increased their projections and Carney is expected to do the same at the next scheduled forecast date on April 22.

At a news conference following his speech, Carney warned against reading in too much optimism in his assessment.
"It wasn't that rosy a message," he said. He cautioned that low U.S. demand and the high Canadian dollar, which was trading below 98 cents US on Wednesday but still high by recent standards, were acting as "significant drags" on the economy.

On a longer term basis, Carney's message to Canadians was positively dark, warning that the country needs to address its "abysmal" productivity record and that the world needs to follow through with reforms to address global imbalances, particularly China's undervalued currency.

Carney calculated that unless the country improves its productivity or output per unit of work, Canadians can expect to lose a total of $30,000 in real income over the next decade.
"Canada does underperform," he said. "We are not as productive as we could be. Our potential growth is slowing. Moreover, this is occurring as the very nature of the global economy ... is under threat."

Home Prices Climb Again

2010-03-12T07:56:00.000-08:00

New home prices in Canada kept climbing in January, rising 0.4 percent from the previous month as expected, according to Statistics Canada on Thursday.

On a monthly basis, the housing-only component of the new housing price index rose by 0.5 percent and the land-only component edged up 0.1 percent.

New home prices firmed 0.1 percent in January from a year earlier, the first year-over-year rise since December 2008.

Despite nationwide gains, prices have been falling in Western Canada, which saw huge price spikes prior to the recent economic crisis.

"Declines slowed in most of Western Canada's metropolitan regions as new housing prices returned to the price levels observed prior to the highs registered at the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008," Statscan said.

The Canadian housing market slumped during the recession last year but never underwent a U.S.-style collapse. Strong sales and price gains in recent months have led to worries of a made-in-Canada housing bubble and prompted the government to tighten mortgage lending rules in February.

Mortgage Insurance Policies

2010-03-02T10:17:00.000-08:00

The study also looks at recent events in the United States and that country's mortgage insurance policies. It points out how the American government interfered in the U.S. mortgage market through legislation that encouraged financial institutions to issue mortgages to high-risk groups for social reasons.

It also highlights how the U.S. government signalled an implicit public guarantee against financial failures by directing government sponsored enterprises (GSEs), similar to the CMHC, to buy and securitize mortgages for high-risk borrowers.

"In the wake of the recent financial crisis, American taxpayers are facing an enormous future liability to pay for the government bailout of the financial industry. Canadian taxpayers could face a similar liability because our government is so heavily involved in the mortgage insurance market through the CMHC,"

The report, written by researcher Neil Mohindra, examines the mortgage finance models in use in Australia and Canada, as well as the European covered bond model, focusing on the question of how to minimize risk to taxpayers while still achieving the housing objectives espoused by government policy-makers.

Australia had its own sub-prime debacle in the 1980s when a state government securitization agency created a program to fund mortgages for low-income borrowers. The program was a disaster and resulted in taxpayer losses of close to half a billion Australian dollars.

Once the Australian state governments got out of the mortgage securitization market, the private sector became active in securitizing residential mortgages. The Australian federal government also exited mortgage insurance by privatizing its mortgage insurer.

The study finds that home-ownership rates in the period following the privatization showed no adverse effects from the lack of government involvement in mortgage finance. In fact, the proportion of Australian homeowners relying on mortgage finance increased and housing quality improved.

"The Australian experience shows that a market for mortgage insurance can operate effectively without any form of government guarantee,"

"In order to lessen the taxpayer exposure and reduce the likelihood of a Canadian mortgage crisis, the government should emulate Australia and allow the private sector to take total responsibility for insuring and securitizing Canadian residential mortgages."

Canada Has Housing Bubble

2010-02-15T06:52:00.000-08:00

Stephen Jarislowsky, chairman of Montreal-based investment adviser Jarislowsky Fraser Ltd., said he is “convinced” there’s a bubble in Canada’s housing market, fueled by government measures that encouraged consumers to take on debt.

“They have basically encouraged people to buy houses based on cheap mortgages,” Jarislowsky, 84, said in a telephone interview from Montreal. “That has created the opposite effect of what was desirable.”

Canadian home prices and resales will grow to records this year, boosted by low interest rates, the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a report this week. Canadian new-home prices rose 0.4 percent in December from the previous month, the sixth straight gain, government figures showed yesterday.

“I am convinced there is a housing bubble in Canada,” said Jarislowsky, whose investment fund owns shares in Canada’s four biggest banks, including Toronto-based Royal Bank of Canada.

The comments by Jarislowsky, who is one of Canada’s wealthiest investors with a fortune worth C$1.85 billion ($1.8 billion) according to Canadian Business magazine, contrast with the view held by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who sees “no clear evidence” of a housing bubble, his spokesman, Chisholm Pothier, said this week.

Mortgage Insurance

2010-02-08T08:24:00.000-08:00

Government intervention in the mortgage insurance market is exposing Canadian taxpayers to enormous potential liabilities if Canada were to be hit with a mortgage default crisis similar to what occurred in the United States, according to a new peer-reviewed study released today by the Fraser Institute, Canada's leading public policy think-tank.

The report, Mortgage Finance Reform: Protecting Taxpayers from Liability, finds that the Canadian government is heavily exposed in the mortgage market because 43 per cent of all residential mortgages (including all loan-to-value mortgages over 80 per cent) are backed by the government through the federally owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

The report recommends that the federal government follow Australia's example by opening Canada's mortgage insurance market to full competition including the privatization of the CMHC.

"The CMHC dominates the Canadian mortgage insurance market because it enjoys regulatory advantages not available to private-sector companies. As a result, several private-sector mortgage companies have withdrawn from offering mortgage insurance in Canada," said Dr. Brett J. Skinner, Fraser Institute director of insurance policy research.

"The Canadian government should reduce taxpayer exposure by allowing the private sector to take responsibility for insuring and securitizing Canadian residential mortgages. This includes the complete privatization of the CMHC's mortgage insurance business."

The report points out that the Canadian model has the majority of risk concentrated with the Government of Canada, and therefore the taxpayer liability is much greater in Canada than in Australia. By privatizing the CMHC or removing its unfair regulatory advantages, the market would likely be more pluralistic with multiple mortgage insurance providers serving Canadians.

This would be similar to the Australian model of mortgage financing, which has been highly successful in achieving home ownership outcomes and has produced a stable mortgage market, but has minimized taxpayer liabilities during financial crises.

BMO Fixed Rate Dropped

2010-02-01T07:51:00.000-08:00

With interest rates at a record low, a growing number of people are looking to purchase a home. Every homebuyer faces the age-old question of whether to choose a fixed or variable rate mortgage.

"The question of whether to lock in to a longer-term fixed mortgage rate or stay in a variable rate has become an increasingly complex and important debate," said Doug Porter, Deputy Chief Economist, BMO Capital Markets.

"Short-term rates are at historic lows and pressure is likely to build for higher rates in the year ahead."
Research shows that over the past 30 years it has been more cost-effective for borrowers to have a variable rate mortgage 82 per cent of the time. However, under the current environment, Porter points out there are a number of factors to consider before assuming the variable rate is the hands-down winner:

-  Canada has been in a long-term declining rate environment since the
        early 1980s.
     -  The Bank of Canada's overnight rate is now as low as it can go, so
        there is no further downside for variable rates. The surprises can
        only be to the high side from here.
     -  Fixed rates were advantageous during only two recent periods - through
        the late 1970s and in the late 1980s; in both cases ahead of a period
        of rising interest rates, as is the case now.

The Case for Staying Fixed

A conventional fixed rate mortgage can mitigate a number of risks. Although inflation has not been a problem since 1991, there is a risk of an inflation flare-up as global central banks keep the pedal to the policy metal, and amid record government deficits.

The Bank of Canada could be forced to raise interest rates aggressively, driving variable mortgage rates higher, but leaving Canadians with fixed rates relatively unscathed. Plus, fixed rates are currently very attractive given that short-term rates are already as low as they can go.

The Case for Going Variable

The advantage to a variable rate mortgage is that it has been consistently less costly over time. As well, the current outlook for inflation remains benign, which will likely keep price pressures at bay well into 2011. The soaring Canadian dollar is putting additional downward pressure on prices, reducing the near-term need for the Bank of Canada to raise rates.

There is also some risk to locking in as fixed rates could fall if the economy performs worse than anticipated. Even as rates start to rise, Canadians can always lock into a fixed rate at a later date.

The decision depends on the individual. For those who do not have a lot of financial flexibility - such as first-time home buyers and those who would run into difficulty from an upswing in interest rates - the moderate extra cost of peace of mind you can get from a fixed rate may be a price worth paying.

There is also a reasonable scenario where fixed rates may actually prove to be a cheaper alternative at this point. That's particularly the case given some recent cuts in long-term fixed rates, such as BMO's current special rate of 4.09 per cent for a five-year fixed mortgage. BMO Economics' view is that variable rates will climb only moderately, but by enough to tilt the balance in favour of current fixed rates.

"The most important thing a current or first-time homeowner can do is talk to a knowledgeable mortgage expert about their situation and make decisions based on their particular circumstances," said Jane Yuen, Senior Manager, Mortgages, BMO Bank of Montreal. "So come in to a branch or contact a mortgage expert to decide on the type of mortgage that is best for you at this point in your life."

Housing Market 2010

2010-01-12T05:57:00.001-08:00

"We would, in essence, be dousing the entire Canadian economy

with cold water, just as it emerges from recession," Wolf said in an Edmonton speech delivered on behalf of deputy governor Timothy Lane, who could not travel to the Alberta capital for personal reasons.

"As a result, it would take longer for economic growth to return to potential and for inflation to get back to target," he added.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has also openly discussed policy measures to cool the housing market, including raising the minimum down payment requirement above five per cent, or reducing the maximum length a residential mortgage can be amortized from the current 35 years.

Monday's speech came hours after Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released a report indicating the annual rate of housing starts reached 174,500 units in December, up nearly 10,000 from November.

The organization said the improvement in housing starts was broad-based, with solid increases in both single and multiple starts to end the year.

Klump said the rise in new supply in market as well as increase in resale market will let some of the air out of tires in the balance between supply and demand, adding that as 2010 progresses price increases will shrink to the rate of inflation.

Wolf said that even if the bank judged that housing prices were getting out of hand, raising interest rates is too blunt an instrument since it would have the effect of cooling off the entire economy.

Statistics Canada also released figures Monday that pointed toward growth in the housing sector, showing construction intentions in the residential sector are starting to approach their pre-downturn levels, rising 9.1 per cent in November to $3.8 billion.

Contractors took out $5.9 billion in building permits in November, down 4.6 per cent from October.

But Statistics Canada reports that they were 23.1 per cent higher than November 2008 and 62.8 per cent above February 2009, when their value bottomed out amid the economic downturn.

Klump said the current hot market is unlikely to cause a bubble because the economy is on an upward swing, reducing the probability of a massive decline in housing demand.

"I don't see where the catalyst is going to come from for some kind of massive decline or popping of any quote unquote bubble," he said.

Housing Market In The Beggining Of 2010

2010-01-12T05:52:00.000-08:00

Accelerated activity in the housing market is part of the natural flow of economic recovery, according to the Bank of Canada and housing economists working to deflate theories about a new housing bubble that could drive the Canadian economy back into recession.

The Bank of Canada indicated it was premature to be talking about a housing bubble in Canada in a speech delivered Monday by bank official David Wolf. His remarks came after months of highlighting the danger of Canadians getting in over their heads in purchasing homes.

"Recent house price increases do not appear to be out of line with the underlying supply/demand fundamentals," Wolf said. "We see the housing market requiring vigilance, not alarm."

Wolf said the bank considers the current hot market to be a phenomenon based on temporary factors, such as pent-up demand from the recession, and low mortgage rates.

Moreover, he noted that with starts below long-term demographic requirements, the number of houses on the market is still declining.

The Canadian Real Estate Association reports housing prices increased about 4.4 per cent over the first 11 months of 2009, and predicts a further increase of 4.7 per cent in 2010.

The association's chief economist, Gregory Klump, said the year-over-year increase has been "turbocharged" by a combination of today's strong market and the weak year-ago market, which skews average prices.

He added that the current increase is part of natural real estate cycle.

"One would expect that when the worst of a recession is behind us and we've got emergency low interest rates, that would draw buyers back to the market," he said. "A lot of the supply that moved to the sidelines is coming back to the market and is expected to continue to come back, making for a balanced market and smaller price increases going forward."

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has warned for months that Canadians are amassing too much consumer and mortgage debt and that could be a problem for the broader economic recovery if rates rise and debt payments begin to increase for millions of Canadian households.

The Bank of Canada has said interest rates will probably rise after the middle of the year as the economic recovery takes hold and the impact of stimulus spending creates potential inflationary pressures in the economy. However, Monday's comments suggest the central bank won't push rates higher just to cool the housing market.

Prepare For Higher Mortgage Rates ( 2 )

2009-12-14T05:50:00.001-08:00

For example, a $200,000 mortgage with a term of 25 years and an interest rate of 2.25 per cent has monthly payments of $876.26. For the same mortgage with an interest rate of five per cent, the monthly payments become $1,169.18.

And this doesn't only apply to variable-rate mortgages, but to fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up for renewal, Tal said.

"It's not just variable rates, because five years from now the rates will be much higher, so you don't want to find yourself in a situation five years from now where you can't afford the house," he said.

"It's important to be extremely prudent and not to be totally blinded by those rates."

Both John Turner, director of mortgages at BMO, and ING's Beaudry said they've seen an increase in the number of people opting for fixed-rate mortgages to ensure some certainty when interest rates begin to rise again.

"In the first six months (of 2009), we saw well over 60 per cent of our applications being for variable-rate mortgages, and in particular in our case five-year variable-rate mortgages," Beaudry said.

"Towards the latter part of the summer, until now, the trend has reversed to where we're seeing about 70 to 80 per cent of our applications going for five-year fixed-rate mortgages."

Turner agreed, saying 60 to 70 per cent of BMO's customers were opting for variable-rate mortgages in the past, but lately "there's been a slight shift to fixed."

The key is finding a monthly payment you feel comfortable with and then thinking ahead - if you have a variable-rate mortgage, or a fixed-rate mortgage that's coming up for renewal soon, will you be able to afford to continue to make your payments if interest rates go up?

Turner said now is the time to begin making more frequent payments, while interest rates are still low, if you can afford it. This will reduce your principal more quickly and will mean lower payments down the road when interest rates are higher.

"For example, if you have a $200,000 mortgage and you opt to pay biweekly (instead of monthly), you knock four years off your mortgage and save about $47,000 in interest just by doing that," he said.

As well, if you have a variable-rate mortgage, it's important to keep an eye on interest rates and lock in if you feel they're getting too high, said Jim Murphy, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals, or CAAMP.

The association also recommends that homeowners renew their mortgages before the scheduled renewal dates given the current low level of interest rates.

However, Murphy predicted that when interest rates do start to go up it will be a gradual climb, and Canadians shouldn't worry about a sudden jump in the number of people who are forced to default on their mortgages.

"I think people are predicting that rates will start to increase in 2010 at some point in time, but it'll be more of a slow, measured increase as it goes up, and most Canadians who have variable products will have the ability to lock in," Murphy said.

CAAMP says the volumes of residential mortgage credit outstanding is forecast to grow by seven per cent between 2009 and 2011, and is predicted to pass $1 trillion in 2010. The average mortgage interest rate was 4.55 per cent as of October, down from 5.41 per cent a year ago.

Home Prices May Rise

2009-12-07T08:25:00.000-08:00

Canadian home-resale prices are likely rise in 2010 at an even faster pace than this year but a dangerous bubble probably won't develop, TD Economics said in study published on Tuesday.

The average price of an existing home in Canada is expected to surge 9-10 percent next year to about C$346,000 as sales climb to 475,000. In 2009, the average price rose an estimated 4-5 percent on an annual basis.

But the sales momentum, which TD expects will last six to 10 more months, should not translate into a "bubble" as the cost of ownership, when lower interest rates are taken into consideration, has fallen in recent months.

The residential housing market froze late last year in the wake of the global financial crisis, but its swift recovery has prompted some concern about the chances of a sudden collapse. Sales of existing homes rose to a record monthly high in October.

TD described the Canadian market's downturn and subsequent recovery "as V-shaped as can be." It partly attributed the rebound to pent-up demand after last year's slump.

Over the next few years, sales growth should moderate as more supply comes into the market and interest rates rise, TD said in its resale housing outlook report.

In 2011, eroding affordability is likely to weaken sales by more than 10 percent to 421,200 units while prices rise 1.6 percent to C$351,600. In the following two years, prices and sales are expected to rise modestly.

Prepare For Higher Mortgage Rates

2009-11-24T06:31:00.000-08:00

The Canadian housing market has seen a stronger and faster rebound from the recession than any other segment of the economy, due in large part to enticingly low mortgage rates.

But rates this low - 5.59 per cent for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage and 2.25 per cent for a five-year variable-rate mortgage at one bank - can't last forever, and experts are advising borrowers to prepare for higher rates within the next 12 months.

"We have to realize those are emergency interest rates," said CIBC economist Benjamin Tal.

"Interest rates will rise - it's just a question of time, it's not a question of if. And if that's the case, we have to make sure that when we borrow this money we can afford the same mortgage 200 or 300 basis points higher. That's the key responsibility now of borrowers and lenders, to make sure that what we do, we do it in a prudent way."

Depending on whether they are fixed or floating-rate, mortgages are tied to either the bond market or the Bank of Canada's key lending rate, which are closely related. The central bank's rate has been sitting at a record low of 0.25 per cent since the spring and it has said it will keep it steady until at least next June to help stimulate the ailing economy.

On Wednesday, three of Canada's biggest banks - Royal Bank (TSX:RY), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and TD Bank (TSX:TD) - announced that they will cut posted rates for fixed-rate mortgages by up to 0.25 percentage points. On Thursday, CIBC (TSX:CM), Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB) and Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) followed suit by cutting their five-year mortgages by 0.25 per cent to 5.59 per cent, in the case of CIBC and Scotiabank, and 5.6 per cent at Laurentian.

But mortgage lenders agree that rates are nearing the bottom and will begin to rise again in 2010.

"The only sort of assurance that you hear in the marketplace is the Bank of Canada's going to try to maintain that rate until June. But past that, there are already warnings that if there need to be adjustments, the adjustments could be a little more abrupt than we've been used to in the past," said Martin Beaudry, vice-president of retail lending at ING Direct.

CIBC's Tal said that with rates this low, "it's almost a crime not to take a mortgage out," but warned that consumers need to be prepared for higher interest rates later on and what this could mean for their personal finances.

And this doesn't only apply to variable-rate mortgages, but to fixed-rate mortgages that are coming up for renewal, Tal said.

"It's important to be extremely prudent and not to be totally blinded by those rates."

Canada's Dramatic Real Estate Recovery Questions

2009-11-16T18:56:00.000-08:00

The dramatic recovery of the resale housing market – with the pace of activity and prices setting another record in October – has some economists wondering if Canada is in the midst of a housing bubble.

Economists at Scotia Capital Inc. are of the view that housing “is becoming an over-valued asset class.”

Economist Michael Gregory of BMO Nesbitt Burns, on the other hand, says Canada is in the midst of a “booming rebound” – but not a bubble.

And Stewart Hall, an economist at HSBC Securities (Canada), says it is too soon to characterize the housing market activity as a bubble yet, but the situation bears watching.

Bubbles are formed when excessive speculation enters a market, pushing prices higher than justified by market fundamentals. However, asset bubbles inevitably pop, leading to sharp price declines.

'This is becoming an over-valued asset class'

“Is Canada in a housing bubble? Probably, but low rates, mortgage innovation and a relative shortage of new supply are likely too keep it going for a while yet,” Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes said in a research note Monday.

“… Now that last fall's pent-up demand has been released, the three forces of low interest rates, transferring future sales to the present via mortgage innovation, and modest new supply can keep Canadian housing markets humming for some time yet before the eventuality of a softer market on rising rates in a future relative demand vacuum set in.”

After CREA released the October numbers, Mr. Holt and Ms. Cordes expanded on their view.

“The Canadian Real Estate Association has reported October sales and prices. The results are a bright spot in the Canadian economy, but with prices up 20 per cent over year-ago levels and at all-time highs by virtually every measure, this is becoming an over-valued asset class in our opinion,” the Scotia Capital team said.

“Flagging rich valuations is not, however, tantamount to predicting anything imminent by way of give-back on prices,” the added.

“In fact, they could well push further into record territory next year before risks build.”

Quebec Home Improvement And Renovation Tax Credit (HRTC) ( part 2 )

2009-11-10T14:36:00.000-08:00

Examples of non-qualifying work

Landscaping, other than to restore the lot to its condition prior to the recognized work
Construction of outdoor play equipment o
Interior decoration (decorator's service)
Erecting or repairing a fence, low wall, etc.
Drilling a well, installation of a septic tank and septic field
Installation of household appliances
Installation of a swimming pool, sauna, hot tub, etc.
Refurbishment of access points (footpaths, driveway, etc.), unless made necessary as a result of the recognized work
Work aimed exclusively at repairs (repairing a leak, a door, etc.) or maintenance (application of paint to walls solely to spruce up the appearance)

Qualified contractor

The contractor must, at the time the agreement is entered into between the owner and the contractor, be a person or partnership with an establishment in Québec. Must not be the owner or co-owner of the eligible residential unit, or the spouse of one of the owners of the eligible residential unit at the time the home improvement or renovation work is carried out hold an appropriate licence issued by the Régie du bâtiment du Québec. Note that an individual who carries out the improvements or renovations on his or her own principal place of residence may
not claim this tax credit.
Claiming the credit

You may claim the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation on your 2009 income tax return if you are resident in Québec on December 31, 2009. You must send with your return a form indicating all of the information related to the work carried out, such as:

a description of the work
the cost of the work
the registration number assigned under the Act respecting the Québec sales tax (QST) to the person who carried out the work
the licence number issued by the Régie du bâtiment du Québec to the contractor carrying out the work (if applicable)

It is not necessary to provide your receipts or supporting documents when you file your income tax return. However, you must keep these documents for six years following the year to which they apply as Revenu Québec could audit you regarding this credit.

Documents

IN-179-V

Tax Credit for Home Improvement and Renovation

Important Note

These texts on the said programs from Canada or Quebec are provided for information purpose only; you must consult the official Canada http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/sgmnts/hmwnr/hrtc/lgblty-prd-eng.html and Quebec http://www.revenu.gouv.qc.ca/eng/particulier/impots/impot/credit_remb/renovation/index.asp Internet sites and documentation to make sure you qualify. We decline all responsibility in regard to any error or omissions, the readers are responsible to check this information directly with the proper government agencies.

Quebec Home Improvement And Renovation Tax Credit (HRTC)

2009-11-02T05:23:00.001-08:00

If you meet certain eligibility requirements, you may be entitled to a refundable tax credit for the 2009 taxation year for expenses incurred under a residential renovation agreement entered into in 2009 for home improvements or renovations.

The tax credit is equal to 20% of the eligible expenses in excess of $7,500. The maximum amount of eligible expenses is $20,000 for a maximum credit of $2,500.

Calculator

To obtain an estimate of the tax credit for home improvement and renovation that you could be entitled to for the 2009 taxation year, use the calculator available on the website of the Ministère des finances.

Eligibility requirements

To be eligible for the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation, you must:

Own an eligible residential unit located in Québec
Have the qualifying work for improvement or renovation carried out at your principal place of residence
A qualified contractor must be hired to carry out the work under the terms of an agreement entered into after December 31, 2008 and before January 1, 2010.
The expenses incurred to carry out the work must be paid no later than June 30, 2010.

Eligible residential units

An eligible residential unit is a residence built before 2009. The individual who incurs the home improvement or renovation expenses must be the owner (or co-owner) at the time the expenses are incurred. The residential unit must not only be the owner's principal place of residence, but also:

an individual house
a manufactured home or a mobile home permanently installed
a unit in a building held in divided co-ownership
an apartment in a building held in undivided co-ownership or held by a sole owner

Qualifying work

Qualifying work that gives entitlement to the refundable tax credit for home improvement and renovation consists of:

the renovation, modification, improvement, conversion or expansion of an individual's eligible residential unit, including the addition of structures adjoining or incidental to the unit
the work needed to restore a lot to its condition before the work described above was carried out

Examples of qualifying work

Division of rooms (knocking down walls or addition of partitions)
Finishing of a basement, attic or garage
Installation of a fireplace, a heat pump or an air conditioning system
Installation of an alarm system or home automation system
Insulation (including for a garage)
Replacement of the plumbing, electrical system, heating system, air exchange system
Replacement of the roofing, rainwater gutters and chimney
Replacement of doors and windows
Replacement of sewage treatment systems (septic tanks and septic field)
Renovation of a kitchen, bathroom, washroom
Expansion of a house built before 2009
Construction work on structures adjoining or incidental to a house built before 2009

Federal Home Renovation Tax Credit ( part 3 )

2009-10-26T05:54:00.000-07:00

Work performed by electricians, plumbers, carpenters, architects

Generally, work performed by electricians, plumbers, carpenters, architects, etc.
in respect of an eligible expense qualifies.

Family member hired for renovations

Expenses are not eligible if the goods or services are provided by a person related to you, unless that person is registered for the Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax under the Excise Tax Act. If your family member is registered for GST/HST and if all other conditions are met, the expenses are eligible for the HRTC.

Eligible dwellings

An eligible dwelling is a housing unit that is eligible to be your principal residence or that of one or more of your family members at any time between January 27, 2009, and February 1, 2010.

In general, a housing unit is considered to be your principal residence when it is owned by you and ordinarily inhabited by you, your spouse or common-law partner, and your children. This means that any dwelling that you own and use personally could qualify, including your home or your cottage.

Cottages

If you own and use your home and cottage personally, eligible expenses incurred for both properties will normally qualify for the HRTC. Note that the maximum amount of eligible expenses you can claim for the HRTC is $10,000 per family.

Rental and/or business use of an eligible dwelling

If you earn business or rental income from part of an eligible dwelling, you can claim the HRTC only for expenses incurred for the personal-use areas of the dwelling.

Condominiums and co-operative housing corporations

For condominiums and co-operative housing corporations, your share of the cost of eligible expenses for common areas qualifies.

Eligibility period

The HRTC is based on eligible expenses for work performed or goods acquired after January 27, 2009, and before February 1, 2010, under an agreement entered into after January 27, 2009, related to an eligible dwelling.

Federal Home Renovation Tax Credit ( part 2 )

2009-10-14T08:13:00.000-07:00

Some businesses or individuals may assert that certain items qualify for the HRTC. It is important to remember that you are responsible for ensuring that all eligibility requirements are met when you claim this credit on your tax return.

Examples of eligible expenses

Renovating a kitchen, bathroom, or basement, windows and doors
New carpet or hardwood floors
New furnace, boiler, woodstove, fireplace, water softener, water heater, or oil tank
Permanent Home ventilation systems, central air conditioner
Septic systems and wells
Electrical wiring in the home, home Security System (monthly fees do not qualify)
Solar panels and solar panel trackers
Painting the interior or exterior of a house
Building an addition, garage, deck, garden/storage shed, or fence
Re-shingling a roof
A new driveway or resurfacing a driveway
Exterior shutters and awnings

Permanent swimming pools, hot tub and installation costs (in ground and above ground)
Landscaping
Associated costs such as installation, permits, professional services,equipment rentals, and incidental expenses
Fixtures - blinds, shades, shutters, lights, ceiling fans, etc.

Note

Window coverings, such as blinds, shutters and shades, that are directly attached to the window frame and whose removal would alter the nature of the dwelling are generally considered to be fixtures and therefore would qualify for the HRTC.

In some circumstances, draperies and curtains may qualify for the HRTC, if they would not keep their value or usefulness if installed in another dwelling. If these qualifying criteria are not met, it is likely that draperies and curtains would not qualify for the HRTC.

Examples of ineligible expenses

Furniture, appliances, and audio and visual electronics
Purchasing of tools
Carpet cleaning
House cleaning
Maintenance contracts (e.g., furnace cleaning, snow removal, lawn care, and pool cleaning)
Financing costs

Federal Home Renovation Tax Credit

2009-10-14T08:03:00.000-07:00

Federal Home Renovation Tax Credit (HRTC)

Only available for the 2009 tax year. The Home Renovation Tax Credit is a non-refundable tax credit based on eligible expenses for improvements to your house, condo or cottage.

It can be claimed on your 2009 income tax return. It applies to eligible purchases made after January 27, 2009, and before February 1, 2010. The HRTC applies to eligible expenses of more than $1,000, but not more than $10,000, resulting in a maximum non-refundable tax credit of $1,350 [($10,000 − $1,000) × 15%].

Who is eligible for the HRTC?

Eligibility for the HRTC is family based. The claim can be split among family members but the total amount claimed cannot exceed the maximum allowable. Iwo or more families share the ownership of an eligible dwelling, each family can claim its own credit (i.e., each up to $1,350) that is calculated on its respective eligible expenses.

All expenses must be supported by receipts and acceptable documentation. Keep them in case we ask to see them.

Eligible and ineligible expenses

Considering the extensive number of eligible and ineligible expenses, it is no possible to provide a complete list. The reader is responsible to check the nformation and make sure he meets all required conditions upon asking the tax credit on his income tax report.

Consult the Internet Site at http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/tx/ndvdls/sgmnts/hmwnr/hrtc/lgblty-prd-eng.html for the complete lists.

The expenses are eligible when they are incurred in relation to renovations or alterations to an eligible dwelling (or the land that forms part of the eligible dwelling) and are permanent in nature.

As a general rule, if the item you purchase will not become a permanent part of your home or property, it is not eligible.

Canada Rate Hikes

2009-10-07T06:23:00.000-07:00

Excessive real estate strength in Canada from ultralow mortgage rates could push the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates sooner or more aggressively than forecast, according to a TD Economics report on Tuesday.

The possibility is worth watching closely, the economics arm of Toronto-Dominion Bank argued, although it also said the most likely scenario is that the real estate market will moderate and inflation will remain in check.

The Bank of Canada has pledged to keep its interest rates unchanged at 0.25 percent until mid-2010, unless it sees a threat of inflation spinning out of control.

TD pointed to recent statements by the central bank that hinted that it would seek to lean against signs of emerging asset bubbles and that it is also monitoring developments in home prices.

In a recent speech, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney deemed the strength in existing home sales as "temporary", reflecting "pent-up demand" and improved affordability.

"The (Bank of Canada's) view at the moment is that the recent resurgence in real estate is temporary, but if it does not moderate in the coming year -- or worse still if price growth accelerates -- it could lead to an earlier and more substantial tightening in policy than currently anticipated," TD economists Craig Alexander and Grant Bishop said in the report on Tuesday.

The economists stressed that the central bank targets the rate of consumer price growth and does not target asset values.

"The key issue is whether the low interest rate environment is creating an economic imbalance that requires a rebalancing of monetary policy," the TD economists said.

Canadian real estate markets have staged a stunning turnaround this year from the end of 2008 when sales and prices retreated sharply. The latest Canadian Real Estate Association data showed August home sales were up 18.5 percent from a year ago, while prices rose 11.3 percent nationally from a year earlier to an average C$324,779 ($306,395).

TD expects sales will cool in the coming months and for price growth to return to a mid-single digit pace after months of pent-up demand and tighter mortgage pricing.

"The base-case economic forecast does not anticipate that hot real estate markets will force the Bank of Canada's hand, but it is a risk worth closely monitoring," the TD economists said.

TD expects the Bank of Canada will begin to gradually lift the benchmark overnight interest rate in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Interstest Rate Calculation

2009-09-30T10:20:00.000-07:00

Did you know that there is more than one way to compute the interest on a loan?

Normally, interest rates on all fixed-term mortgage loans are computed semi-
annually. However, for mortgage loans with a variable rate, some lenders use a
semi-annually capitalized variable rate, while others use a monthly compounded
variable rate.

This difference in the calculation changes the payment by only a
few dollars per month but, over a long period of time, it can significantly affect the
overall cost of your loan.

For example: for a $250,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years, the customer
will pay $3.40 more per month if the lender capitalizes monthly, an increase of
$1,020.

Do some digging; might as well keep this money in your pocket. Your
advisor knows where to go and who to deal with in order to save you money.

Mortgage Rates Falling

2009-09-09T05:08:00.000-07:00

Canadian banks are chopping their mortgage rates across the board by up to a third of a percentage point as the cost of borrowing in the bond market falls.

Royal Bank and BMO announced their cuts late Friday, while TD Canada Trust followed with its own rate cut announcement on Tuesday. Other banks are expected to follow.

The popular five-year closed mortgage gets the biggest cut.

At TD Canada Trust, a five-year closed mortgage drops three-tenths of a percentage point to 5.55 per cent. At the Royal, the five-year closed term falls three-tenths of a point to 5.49 per cent. At BMO, a five-year loan also falls to 5.49 per cent, but that represents a drop of .36 of a percentage point.

These are all posted rates. The big banks typically offer discounts of at least a full percentage point on most closed mortgages.

BMO and RBC say they're offering a special rate of 4.19 per cent on their five-year mortgages. A few smaller financial institutions such as First Calgary Savings are currently offering five-year loans for just under four per cent.

At the big banks, most other mortgage terms were trimmed by smaller amounts. A one-year closed mortgage falls a fifth of a percentage point to 3.70 per cent at BMO and RBC. A 10-year closed mortgage drops a fifth of a percentage point to 6.70 per cent at TD and to 6.75 per cent at the other two.

Analysts say low mortgage rates have helped to turn around the Canadian housing market in recent months. Real estate statistics for July show that the number of resales across the country surged more than 18 per cent from a year earlier to a record high. The average MLS sale price in July was up 7.6 per cent from July 2008.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep its key overnight lending rate unchanged at its current record low of 0.25 per cent when it makes its next interest rate policy announcement on Thursday.

Mortgage-Rate Rush

2009-09-03T06:49:00.000-07:00

Real estate prices rose again in August and were approaching their levels of a year ago, numbers released Wednesday by the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley real estate boards showed.

Market watchers, surprised by the strength of the rebound, said it appeared buyers were cashing in on record-low mortgage rates while they last.

Sales set records in July and stayed hot in August. The question now is whether the market can keep up the pace.

“Before I would call this a complete recovery I would want to see a couple of months of data,” Robyn Adamache, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in an interview.

Adamache added that there now are five months worth of data showing an upward trend, but “it remains to be seen whether this was just a one-shot deal where everybody was pre-approved for their [low-rate] mortgages and they basically jumped into the market, and whether or not [the market] can be sustained for the rest of the year.”

However, Adamache said on balance, Metro Vancouver’s average property prices, since their trough last March, have climbed back to within three percentage points of their peak.

She estimated that from peak to trough, average prices fell some 15 per cent.

Record-low mortgage rates, which fell as low as 3.65 per cent on five-year fixed-rate mortgages before rising again after June 1, played a big role in the market.

“If I had to put [market performance] on one thing, I would have to say interest rates,” Carolyn Heaney, Vancouver area manager of mortgage development for the Bank of Montreal, said in an interview.

Heaney said her mortgage lenders had a lot of clients who had been approved for mortgages with the low rates, and had 90 days to buy homes and close their purchases before their pre-approvals expired.

“There were certainly a lot of people who jumped off the fence in order to keep their rates,” she said.

Kevin Lutz, B.C. mortgage manager for RBC Financial Group, said that despite the recession, a bit of consumer confidence has been returning to the market. Lutz said the past few months have seen buyers cram almost a year’s worth of buying activity into a short period.

In the area of Metro Vancouver covered by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), that translated into 3,441 sales through the Multiple Listing service, a 120-per-cent increase from last August, when the region saw 1,568 sales.

Prices in Metro continued to edge up with the benchmark price (the average price of the typical property sold) for detached homes hitting $732,656 in August. That was just 0.7 per cent below last year’s benchmark price for detached homes.

Some communities saw detached-home prices rise above their levels of a year ago. On Vancouver’s west side, for example, the benchmark of $1.4 million in August was three per cent higher than in the same month a year ago.

The $685,746 benchmark for detached homes on Vancouver’s east side was 3.2 per cent higher than a year ago.

New Westminster, Pitt Meadows and the Sunshine Coast also saw detached home prices higher than a year ago.

“It has been surprising,” REBGV president-elect Jake Moldown said. “I don’t think if you had talked to any of us in January that we would be expecting sales levels to be where they are today.”

However, he said with price adjustments and low interest rates combining to reduce mortgage payments, a lot of first-time buyers have jumped into the market, helping set off a chain reaction of upward movement.

In the Fraser Valley, realtors recorded their second busiest August on record, with agents racking up 1,786 sales through the MLS in August, up 96 per cent from 910 sales in the same month a year ago, when the market was sliding rapidly.

For the period of June through August, the board said valley realtors saw 5,857 MLS sales, which outpaced the same period of 2007, but is still far from matching 2005’s 6,866 sales for June, July and August.

Fraser Valley realtors saw the benchmark price (the average price of a typical property sold) for single-family homes creep up 3.8 per cent over the past three months to $483,839 in August, not quite erasing the losses of the past year. That price was still 3.5 per cent below last August’s $501,317 benchmark.

TD Bank Profit Decline

2009-08-27T14:42:00.000-07:00

TD Bank Financial Group (TSX:TD) reported a decline in third-quarter profits Thursday and warned of trouble ahead as difficult economic conditions weakened the performance of some of the bank's U.S.-based operations.

"It's unlikely that this level of earnings can be maintained," admitted TD chief executive Ed Clark in a conference call Thursday.

"But we do have an excellent business that continues to perform well and produce solid returns on capital with very tight risk management."

TD's financial performance was "great" in the quarter, given the ongoing economic weakness around the world, said Clark.

"There probably aren't many people on this call frankly, including me, who thought we'd be having this kind of performance in the midst of a recession," he said.

"At the beginning of 2009, I would have found it hard to believe that by the third quarter I'd be talking about year-over-year increase on our earnings per share, even after issuing shares last year, but it certainly looks like we're going to be there."

The Toronto-based bank reported a profit of $912 million or $1.01 per share for the quarter ended July 31, down from year-earlier profits of $997 million or $1.21 per share.

The bank said adjusted earnings rose 17 per cent to $1.3 billion or $1.47 per share from $1.1 billion or $1.35 per share reported a year ago. The adjusted results beat the estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who predicted earnings would come in at $1.23 per share.

TD said total quarterly revenue rose to $4.66 billion from $4.32 billion, while provision for credit losses declined to $557 million from $656 million.

TD's Tier 1 capital ratio, a key metric measuring the amount of money held in reserve, stood at 11.2 per cent at quarter's end.

Clark gave credit to governments and central banks around the world for responding "both quickly and appropriately" to the global economic crisis, but said there are concerns about the extent of the recovery.

"We have never been tested by conditions this tough, but we were up to it," he said.

"It seems like we're through the bottom, but there's clearly a debate going on about the strength of the subsequent economic recovery."

Results got a boost from TD's wholesale banking operations, where profits soared nearly 90 per cent to $327 million. Net income also improved five per cent in the Canadian personal and commercial segment, which recorded profit of $677 million.

Earnings in wealth management were dragged down by weak market conditions, while loan losses drove profits in U.S. personal and commercial banking down to $172 million.

Clark said TD didn't anticipate the resilience of the Canadian resale housing market.

"The structure of Canadian housing and mortgage markets provides an enduring strength for the economy and for our business," he said.

The bank also announced Thursday that Clark had advised of his intention to exercise up to 390,000 options for TD common shares, which represents 13 per cent of his outstanding options.

Clark intends to donate approximately 10 per cent of the pre-tax net proceeds to charity, and to sell the remaining acquired shares.

TD shares were up just over $2 in late Thursday trading at $62.62.

Inflation Falls To Lowest Level.

2009-08-20T08:00:00.000-07:00

Canada's annual inflation rate slid to the lowest level in 56 years last month, dropping more than expected for the second straight month to set overall prices 0.9 per cent lower than last year, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday.

The fall on a month-to-month basis was even more dramatic, as prices in July fell 0.3 per cent from the previous month, reversing the similar monthly increase registered in June.

Still, economists say there is little concern that deflation - a broadbased and persistent decline in prices that could inflict further damage on the economy - is setting in in Canada, as it did in Japan during the 1990s.

That's because only three of the major components tracked by Statistics Canada are experiencing deflation and most of that is based on falling gasoline prices.

In July, consumers paid 4.1 per cent less at the pump than they did the previous month, and 28.3 per cent less than they did last July.

"Regular unleaded gasoline prices at self-service stations averaged 97.4 cents per litre in July 2009 compared with a record high of just under $1.37 in July 2008," the agency noted.

But analysts expect the impact of gas prices on inflation is due to reverse next month, which could cause the current deflationary trend to reverse course. The influence of gas prices has mirrored the downward spiral in oil prices, which peaked at US$147 a barrel last July before plunging over the following year.

"We don't have a deflation or an inflation problem in Canada," said Meny Grauman, an economist with CIBC World Markets.

Statistics Canada also pointed out that excluding the energy component, inflation remains a healthy 1.8 per cent in Canada. Core inflation is also close to where the Bank of Canada would like it, at 1.8 per cent, only slightly below the desired two-per-cent target.

Scotiabank economist Adrienne Warren predicted the July number will be the low point of the cycle and that annual inflation will return to positive territory in October.

Although most consumers would welcome widespread price decreases, economists say a prolonged deflationary cycle could have the effect of further undermining activity if consumers and businesses decide to hold off spending in hopes of realizing bigger savings in the future.

Still, Canadians were seeing many bargains when they went shopping last month.

Besides lower pump prices, the cost of purchasing a car was 4.3 per cent lower than last year, shelter prices fell two per cent, mortgage interest costs were 0.1 per cent lower, and clothing and footwear cost 2.1 per cent less than last July.

The key contributor to inflationary pressure continued to be food prices, which were five per cent higher in July on an annual basis.

But Warren noted the year-long strong buildup of food prices also appears to be slowing and will likely result in inflationary pressures being kept in check even after the impact of gas prices has worn off.

Food prices had risen 5.5 per cent in June, and 6.4 per cent in May.

"There is some evidence now that there's a market share price competition among the major grocery store chains, and consumers are a little more price conscious," she said.

As well, car insurance rose 5.1 per cent last month, tempering the overall descent in the gas-price dominated transportation component.

Regionally, eight provinces experienced negative inflation last month, with British Columbia heading the pack with a minus 1.6-per cent reading.

Saskatchewan was the only province with positive inflation, at 0.9 per cent, while prices were flat in Manitoba.

Housing Market At July

2009-08-11T20:47:00.000-07:00

Canadian housing starts fell unexpectedly in July, dropping 4.1 percent from June and breaking a two-month run of gains, largely because of a drop in construction of multifamily dwellings.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said on Tuesday that starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 132,100 units in July from a downwardly revised 137,800 units in June.

Analysts had forecast a rise to 145,000 starts. June starts were previously reported at 140,700 units.

The fall in July was attributed to a 9 percent decrease, to 61,000 units, in starts on urban multiple dwellings such as condos and apartment buildings. Single family homes dipped 1.1 percent to 52,500 units.

The figures paled against the buoyancy of recent data for existing home sales and building permits, but economists were encouraged that the July number was still above the average for the second quarter.

"In the second quarter, starts averaged a 127,900 annualized pace so July's data shows a modest improvement from that level," said Dawn Desjardins, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

"Canada's housing market is showing signs of emerging from its slump with the July level of housing starts putting the economy on track to record a quarterly increase for the first time since early 2008."

Rona Inc , Canada's biggest home-improvement chain, said on Tuesday that soft housing starts in the second quarter were partly to blame for its weak quarterly profit. It also said it remained cautious about recovery in the housing sector.

Starts increased 16.6 percent in Quebec in July, but fell in other regions. Urban starts dropped 17 percent in the Prairies, 15 percent in Ontario, 10 percent in British Columbia, and 1.4 percent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,600 units in July.

Wells Fargo & Co No Longer Offer Residential Mortgages

2009-08-04T06:35:00.001-07:00

Wells Fargo & Co., the fourth- biggest U.S. bank by assets, will no longer offer residential mortgages and home-equity loans in Canada.

Wells Fargo’s Canadian unit stopped accepting applications for the loans yesterday at its branches and through its HomePlan broker network, Wells Fargo Financial Corp. Canada President Rick Valade said in an e-mailed statement. The company also informed brokers in a statement on its Web site.

“Wells Fargo continuously reviews its operations and makes appropriate changes to its business model,” spokeswoman Erin Downs said in a statement. “In response to recent analysis of our operations and the current market environment, at this time, we made the decision to stop originating consumer real-estate loans products in Canada.”

“We’ve seen a pattern of a number of namely U.S.-based lenders that have exited the field as things have become difficult in the market,” said Jim Murphy, head of the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals. “It’ll mean less choice, less options for Canadians.”

Lenders that still offer so-called alternative mortgages to Canadians include Home Capital Group Inc. and Equitable Group Inc., as well as some Canadian banks, Murphy said.

Wells Fargo will honor existing mortgage commitments and will continue offering personal loans in Canada, the company said. The Canadian unit is a C$5.5 billion ($5.1 billion) business with 130 branches across the country, where it has operated for more than 60 years, according to the Web site.

Wells Fargo follows other mortgage providers including General Electric Co. that have stopped lending to Canadian homebuyers, including those who may not qualify for typical bank mortgages since the 2007 collapse of the U.S. subprime market.

Wells Fargo is the biggest U.S. mortgage originator, with more than 20 percent market share, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. Mortgage originations by San Francisco-based Wells Fargo surged to $129 billion in the second quarter, up 28 percent from the first quarter, according to company filings.

Scheme To Guarantee Mortgages

2009-07-28T10:32:00.000-07:00

First time home buyers could be thrown a lifeline under plans being considered by the Treasury to underwrite 'risky' mortgages, allowing people with only small deposits to buy homes.

Since the credit crunch took hold, banks have demanded far tougher criteria for lending, asking buyers to provide between 25% and 30% of the price of a home as a deposit.

There were 30,000 loans to first time buyers in the first three months of 2009 against an average of more than 100,000 a quarter in the previous decade.

But the government is now studying a scheme used in Canada in the hope of encouraging banks and building societies to step up their lending. The Canadian programme requires all mortgages secured with a deposit of 20% or less to be insured by the government or private insurers, giving the banks more confidence to lend.

The Treasury has taken soundings from specialist insurance companies such as Genworth Financial, which suggest that the Canadian housing market has withstood the pressures of the global financial crisis better than most.

If the Treasury copied the scheme it might have to act as the insurer in the first instance before stepping back to underwrite insurance from private sector companies – opening the government to considerable criticism as it would put further taxpayer money at risk at a time when public finances are already stretched.

The amount of money flowing in the financial system still remains a concern for the government despite attempts to encourage lending through bank bailouts. Chancellor Alistair Darling is tomorrow scheduled to call in the major lenders to urge them to step up their lending to homeowners and small businesses to help stimulate the economy which has now contracted for five quarters in a row.

The possibility of the insurance scheme is outlined in the white paper on banking reform published this month and the Treasury promises an up-date in the autumn's prebudget report. "Some countries have adopted alternative models for mortgage insurance such as Canada where mortgage insurance is compulsory for all mortgages above a lower limit and below a maximum proportion of a home's value," the paper said.

"Some UK stakeholders have proposed that the government considers the benefits of international models like Canada. The government is interested in the lessons that may be learnt from the experiences of other countries and will update at the pre-budget report," the paper said.

The Treasury has made no decision on whether it would work here. The paper explains why it is being considered. "It is sometimes argued that this model helps provide borrowers with continued access to mortgage finance by encouraging risk sharing between insurers and lenders, and helping ensure that lenders do not take excessive risks when the economy is growing and do not withdraw from higher LTV lending during periods of economic disruption," the paper said.

But Treasury officials are also mindful of the pitfalls of the scheme which can push up the price of loans to first time buyers and others with small deposits. It might also be accused of trying to promote risky lending again or breath life into mortgage indemnity guarantees which lenders have charged customers for high loan to value loans but were largely scrapped in the mid 1990s.

The idea is being pushed by specialist insurers who might sell the necessary insurance to the banks. Genworth Financial, a US-based company, is among those to have submitted proposals. It is suggesting that the state would act as direct guarantor initially and that private sector players would step in to allow the government to "reduce its role from being a direct insurer to a guarantor of the private mortgage insurance providers".

"We urge the government to consider developing a partnership with mortgage insurance providers in order to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution to prudently and efficiently provide a lasting and sustainable solution for the wholesale mortgage market," Genworth said.

Revised Outlook On The Economy

2009-07-21T08:32:00.000-07:00

The Bank of Canada offered a rosier, revised outlook on the economy Tuesday.

It now believes the economy is beginning to recover from recession and will perform better than expected in the next 18 months.

The central bank maintained its key overnight rate at the lowest possible level of 0.25 per cent, and committed to keep the rate there until the spring of 2010.

The revised outlook sees less shrinkage and more growth in the economy, according to Michael Kane of BNN.

"The bank of Canada now says the contraction will not be quite as bad as expected, and the expansion greater than expected," Kane told CTV News Channel.

"Previously it was expected that the Canadian economy would contract by 3 per cent this year, and then grow 2.5 per cent next year. They are moderating all those numbers now, and the latest expectation is for a smaller 2.3 per cent contraction this year, a slightly larger 3 per cent growth next year," Kane said.

Kane noted that measures taken by the bank and the federal government to help the economy from slipping too much -- such as stimulus funding and lower interest rates -- appear to be working.

The bank also said credit conditions have improved so much it is reducing the amount of money it is injecting into the system to support lending.

Rise Of The Home Sales

2009-07-15T21:30:00.000-07:00

Despite signs long-term mortgage rates are creeping up, the housing market is continuing is bounce back to life according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In June 8.7% more homes were sold than in May.

It's the fifth straight month of increases -- a 17.9% increase over June 2008.

"This rebound reflects the releasing of a pent-up demand by buyers who moved to the sidelines towards the end of last year," said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

"Now there are signs the worst of the recession may be behind us, those people are emerging."

The bounce back was strongest in British Columbia where 39.8% more homes were sold in June this over the same month last year.

According to the CREA report,

Ontario was up 15.7%,

Quebec 9.8%,

Alberta 22.2%,

Saskat chewan 25.2%

Manitoba 0.2%.

This surge in home buying came despite a decision by Canada's five big banks last month to raise five-year fixed mortgage rates 40 basis points from 5.45% to 5.85%.

The decision was made despite the Bank of Canada's efforts to keep borrowing low by pledging to hold interest rates at the historic low of 0.25% until the middle of 2010.

Mary Webb, a senior economist with Scotiabank, says the low long-term interest rates in the spring were a reflection of a global economy with almost no signs of growth and that was bound to change.

"Now we're looking for a recovery, and not just in Canada but globally, and we're seeing it already in China and we expect growth to strengthen later this year and early next," Webb said.

With more people borrowing, banks are being forced to pay more to borrow the money they lend to home buyers and that drives up long-term interest rates, she said.

Canada's Housing Market Today

2009-07-07T07:28:00.000-07:00

The worst of Canada's housing market woes appear to be past but the sector's rebound will be tenuous as a rise in mortgage rates and high unemployment limit the recovery in prices and sales.

Property experts say first-time buyers and Bank of Canada rate cuts have helped restore stability to a market that slumped from late 2008 to early this year, when the worst leg of the global financial crisis battered consumer confidence.

"We should be less fearful than we were six months ago, but I don't think we should be exuberant yet. The resale markets in Canada are very strong. May numbers were pretty good, and June numbers will be even better," said Will Dunning, an economic consultant who specializes in the housing market.

"But by July and into the fall there will be an offset of considerably slower activity. I don't think it's likely to go off a cliff. It'll depend on what happens in employment and the broader economy, and how that affects confidence."

Recent data suggests Canada's residential property market, which weathered the financial crisis much better than its hard-hit U.S. counterpart, has been thawing for several months.

The latest Canadian Real Estate Association data shows May resale home prices rose 0.4% to $319,757, topping the previous record set a year earlier. It was the first year-over-year increase since May last year. And sales activity climbed for a fourth straight month.

The industry group, which represents more than 97,000 real estate brokers and agents, also cut its forecast for a drop in home prices this year and said it expected sales activity to trend higher.

Meanwhile, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the national housing agency, forecast in its second-quarter outlook that new home construction is expected to decline to 141,900 units in 2009 but rebound next year.

Still, no one predicts the residential property market is headed back to the heady times seen between 2002 and 2007, when prices surged and outpaced income growth. In some cities, such as Vancouver, British Columbia, and Calgary, Alberta, home prices doubled and are now going through a sharp correction.

A "stable but unremarkable" period for the real estate market is expected this year, said Philip Soper, chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services, an arm of Canadian property giant Brookfield Properties Corp. that holds real estate broker brand Royal LePage.

"Stability is something you can't overemphasize in terms of its importance for the housing market right now."

Unless the global financial system succumbs to another crisis, analysts expect the Canadian home market is likely to stabilize further.

Activity from first-time buyers appears to be providing support because of stimulative measures by the federal government that allow these buyers to defray closing costs and withdraw more from retirement funds.

The Bank of Canada has also pledged to keep interest rates near zero until mid-2010, which could underpin confidence.

But the economy is still on shaky ground, contracting for the ninth straight month in April. And the unemployment rate spiked to an 11-year high in May, boosted by massive layoffs in the factories of Ontario.

Experts warn that further job losses in pockets of Canada's export-oriented economy could slow the momentum that has been gathering in the housing sector.

"We don't expect the recession to end until the fall. It's clear that the spring fling in housing markets, this remarkable surge in resales and prices, has been driven by record low mortgage rates," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

These record low rates, whether variable or fixed, had increased affordability for many buyers. But weakness in the bond market, caused in part by reduced investor demand for safe-haven assets, has pushed mortgage rates higher.

The posted rate on a five-year mortgage at Royal Bank of Canada, the country's largest lender, has risen to 5.85% from 5.25% in April.

Brookfield's Mr. Soper has been telling his management team to prepare for softness in the housing market in the second half.

"The advice I have been giving ... is to accept the recovery this spring with humility, to continue to plan for a difficult second half of the year although the comparables are going to be positive simply because the second half of 2008 was so poor," he said in an interview.

"But at least we have a stable market and stable prices, which is something that you need to encourage consumers to trade."

Real Estate and the Global Recession

2009-06-29T05:59:00.000-07:00

Now it can be said – the US is officially in a recession, and other countries around the globe are very quickly following suit. Predominating the country’s financial headaches is the real estate meltdown, or subprime crash, as experts call it. The question being asked is, was overinflated real estate the cause of the US and ultimately the global recession? If so, how?

New York Times economics columnist David Leonhardt explains it this way: In 1998, Wall Street started making it easier for home buyers to apply for loans, and packaged those loans to global investors as CDOs, or collateralized debt obligations. To make these investments even more enticing, Wall Street introduced the idea of subprime mortgages - ARM (adjustable rate mortgage) loans with high interest rates packaged in the guise of low initial interest rates.

High interest rates for the borrowers meant higher returns for the investors, while low credit score borrowers now had the opportunity to buy homes despite their normally unacceptable credit picture. The lax lending policies allowed people to borrow as much as 50% more than the real value of the house with a minimal down payment even as the high interest rates pushed prices up, resulting in grossly overpriced home prices. A case in point is San Francisco, where the median home price is currently 11.6% of the median annual salary.

Investors sought to accelerate their earnings by borrowing funds to invest. The extremely high loan interest rates caused many of the borrowers to default on their loans, and as home prices reached the point where borrowers couldn’t afford to pay their loans anymore and people stopped buying because prices were just way too high, the financial village came toppling down, one by one in a domino effect.

First to fall were Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, the country’s two largest mortgage finance lenders that had bought the loans from the mortgage originators, repackaged them as mortgage-backed securities, and sold them to the global investors. Next came the banks and investment companies with heavy exposures on these sub prime loans such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and as the banks fell so did the global investors who had invested in these mortgage investments. As the companies fell, investors panicked and engaged in a wave of selling, causing the stock markets to crash.

Industry insiders say that unless the number of foreclosures goes down, home prices will continue to decline and it will take longer before the real estate crisis bottoms out.

The S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indices show that home prices continue to fall – as of May, Phoenix reported an annual decline of 31.9%, Las Vegas was down 31.3%, San Francisco down by 29.5%, Miami down by 28.4%, Los Angeles down by 27.6%, and San Diego 26.3%.

With more and more companies downsizing workforces, it looks like we’re in for quite a long wait. In the meantime, here’s our advice: if you’ve got a home, hold on to it. If you’re in the market to buy a house, do your due diligence and homework – compare prices, read the fine print, and make sure you can afford to pay before you sign that loan.

Canada Mortgage Bonds Sold

2009-06-21T20:05:00.000-07:00

Foreign bond funds are falling for Canadian mortgage bonds.

Canada Housing Trust, a federal government agency, had another successful outing in the capital markets on Tuesday, raising $8-billion from the sale of Canada Mortgage Bonds, known on the Street as CMBs.

These bonds are guaranteed by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, as part of the CMHC’s program to backstop the residential real estate market. The underwriting was led by CIBC World Markets, Merrill Lynch, RBC Dominion Securities and TD Securities.

The latest round of CMB sales featured increasing interest from international investors. Doug Bartlett, head of CIBC’s government finance team, said rise in CMB purchases from outside the country “is reflective of the international investors’ positive view of Canadian government debt.”

The latest CMB offering is five-year debt, sold with 3.15 per cent interest rate. That translates into a 42.5 basis point premium to the comparable government of Canada bond, yet the CMB carried the same triple-A credit rating as the federal government.

Underwriters sold 24 per cent of the bonds outside Canada. U.S. investors bought 17 per cent of this offering, while European and Asian customers each stepped up for just over 3 per cent of the new bonds.

Six months into 2009, the CMB program has seen investors buy $27.3-billion of debt. In all of 2008, CMB offerings totalled $43.5-billion With this week’s issue, the outstanding CMB total $165-billion, of which $154-billion featured fixed rates and $11-billion are floating rate issues.

Housing Starts Rise In May

2009-06-15T10:47:00.000-07:00

Housing starts rose more than expected in May, with increased construction seen in both single and multiple dwelling sectors, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of starts increased to 128,400 units during the month from 117,600 in April, CMHC said Monday.

"Housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009 and over the next several years to gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year," the Crown corporation said.

Economics expected housing starts to total 126,000 units in May.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts was up 11.1% to 107,800 units in May, CMHC said. Multiple unit urban starts rose to 60,900 units and single unit starts increased to 46,900 units -- with both categories rising by a similar 11.1% from the previous month.

"The increase in May is broadly based, encompassing both the singles and multiples segments," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.

Overall urban starts were up 22% in Ontario, 16.8% in the Prairies, 7.3% in Atlantic Canada and 3.3% in Quebec. Meanwhile, urban starts fell 5% in British Columbia.

Rural starts were little changed at 20,600 units in May.

"The broad-based nature of the increase in residential construction activity in May was an encouraging development for this beleaguered sector of the Canadian economy," said Millan Mulraine.

"Indeed, after plunging precipitously since late 2007, and appearing to be in free-fall in recent months, this rebound may be an indication that the sector is perhaps stabilizing.

"Nevertheless, with the Canadian labour market continuing to weaken and the overall economy remaining quite soft, we expect residential building activity to remain in the current depressed range for some time."

TABLE

Housing starts in May (seasonally adjusted):

Canada, all areas 128,400

Canada, rural areas 20,600

Canada, urban centres 107,800

Canada, singles, urban centres 46,900

Canada, multiples, urban centres 60,900

Atlantic region, urban centres 7,300

Quebec, urban centres 34,200

Ontario, urban centres 41,600

Prairie region, urban centres 15,300

British Columbia, urban centres 9,400

TD bank increases some mortgage rates

2009-06-10T05:44:00.000-07:00

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) is raising medium-term mortgage rates by up to half a percentage point while lowering some shorter-term rates effective Wednesday.

The rate for five-year closed mortgages, one of the most commonly chosen by Canadian homeowners, goes up 0.4 percentage point to 5.85 per cent.

That's on top of a 0.2-point increase in the five-year rate announced last week by TD and several other major banks.

Analysts have noted that rates for mid-to long-term mortgages are going up in response to higher yields being paid on bond markets, where lenders finance much of their mortgage business.

The biggest change announced Tuesday by TD will be with three-year closed mortgages, which will rise by 0.5 percentage point to 4.65 per cent. The posted rate for four-year closed mortgages rises by 0.3 point to 5.14 per cent.

TD is lowering its six-month convertible mortgage rate by 0.15 point to 4.6 per cent while its one-year close mortgage rate falls 0.15 point to 3.75 per cent.

The short-term rates are influence more by the Bank of Canada's policy rates, which are at a historical low.

Is Your US Home a Good Investment

2009-06-03T21:00:00.000-07:00

There's the usual talk about what the latest Case-Shiller house price data mean for the next short term move in the real estate market. Has housing bottomed? If not, has the rate of decline slowed? And when will we see an upturn?

Human nature likes the short term. Which is why so little attention is paid to something that is probably more important, if less urgent: What the latest data show about the long-term of the real estate market.

And it's startling.

We have just been through the biggest boom in real estate in American history. The subsequent bust surely hasn't finished.

Yet look at the numbers. Since 1987, when the Case-Shiller index of 10 major cities begins, it's risen from an index value of 63 to 151. Annual return: Just 4.1% a year. During that period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose by 3% a year. Net result: Home prices produced a real return of just 1.15% a year over inflation over that time.

Critics may point out that the analysis is unfair -- after all, it starts counting near the peak of the 1980s housing boom. Fair enough. Look at the performance since, say, early 1994, when home prices were near a historic trough. Surely someone who bought then has made a bundle.

Not necessarily. Since then the ten-city index has risen from a value of 76 to 151. Annual return: 4.7%. Inflation over that period: 2.5%. That's still only a real return of 2.2% a year above inflation.

You can often do better on long-term inflation protected government bonds.

And real estate often costs 2% or more a year in property taxes, condo fees, maintenance, insurance and the like.

Conventional wisdom long held that home ownership was a route to wealth, and the imputed rent -- in other words, the right to live in your home -- was just part of the value you got from it. Under that widespread view, the recent housing bust was simply a temporary, though deep, pothole.

Yet for very many people, even over the past 15 or 20 years, the imputed rent may have been all, or nearly all, the real value they actually got from their home.

Yes, it's only recent data. And it's only ten cities. But there's some reason to suspect these numbers may, if anything, flatter real estate performance. After all, it's hard to look at the data and figure the bust is now over. And if they fall further, those long-term return figures will fall too.

Prices weren't just down 19% over the past year. They fell 2% just between February and March. And it's not the worst-hit markets that worry me the most -- Phoenix is down 53% from its peak, Miami 47%. That smells of capitulation. It's the other markets. New York and Boston are only down 20%. Denver's only down 14%.

Overall the ten- and 20-city Case-Shiller indices are merely back to mid-2003 levels. After the biggest boom and bust on record, history suggests things don't stop getting worse until they've gotten a lot worse than that.

Bank Penalties

2009-05-25T08:43:00.000-07:00

When Rahim Moosa lost his job last October, he decided to sell the house he'd bought with his wife a year earlier.

His lender, TD Canada Trust, said there would be an $8,000 penalty to break his five-year closed mortgage – an amount he found tolerable.

"By the time we sold in April 2009, TD Bank quoted us a doubled penalty of $18,000. Now, they are stating it will be approximately $25,000 upon closing in June," he says.

Most mortgage contracts and renewal forms specify that clients seeking an early exit will pay either three months' interest or an interest rate differential (IRD), whichever is greater.

The IRD is calculated by taking the outstanding balance, multiplying it by the gap between your existing mortgage rate and the current rate for a term similar to what you have left, and multiplying by the number of months left to the end of your term.

Mortgage rates have fallen steadily since last fall, making the IRD penalties grow bigger and bigger.

Once I got involved in Moosa's case, TD worked hard to cushion the blow. It sent him to a mortgage specialist, who suggested making a 15 per cent lump-sum prepayment using a line of credit that would be paid back at closing.

Since TD hadn't told him about this option last October, Moosa asked for and received the right to make a 30 per cent prepayment to reduce the outstanding balance.

The estimated penalty is now $11,000 to $14,000.

"We won't know for sure what the exact penalty will be until the payments are made using the line of credit next week," Moosa says.

He wonders why TD dragged its feet when told about his financial problems last fall.

"Our branch representative should have advised us that we could pay a 15 per cent lump sum to reduce the penalty.

"TD needs to have a better process in place, particularly when dealing with clients whose largest investment is in their hands."

Moosa's comments will be reviewed, Hechler said. "We could have moved more quickly to help and provided clearer information from the beginning."

Kevin Plautz, also a TD mortgage customer, felt he received misleading information when he asked about breaking the deal to take advantage of lower rates.

His financial adviser initially quoted a penalty of $2,100, based on three months' interest. Other TD staff he spoke to later did not challenge that figure.

Only when he was ready to renegotiate did he learn there would be an IRD penalty of $5,900.

"I wouldn't have bothered doing a renegotiation if I had just been told the correct penalty at the start or one of the many times I asked about it since then," he says

TD agreed to reduce his IRD penalty to $4,000 after I escalated his complaint to the head office.

"We have offered to substantially reduce the amount of Mr. Plautz's IRD penalty as a goodwill gesture in recognition of the confusion he experienced over the amount he was quoted," Hechler told me.

While planning to take the offer, Plautz is leaving TD. He's found another bank that will give him a lower interest rate and cover $225 of his $270 mortgage discharge fee.

"I have a very bad taste in my mouth. I think I still prefer to move my business," he says.

I'd like to hear from readers. Have you tried to renegotiate a mortgage amid falling interest rates? How did the lender respond and what penalty was charged? I'll publish comments in a future column.

Mortgage Payment Plan

2009-05-18T20:20:00.000-07:00

New and revolutionary mortgage payment discoveries explain how Consumers in Canada, the United States, the UK, Australia and the Commonwealth, give away huge amounts of money, freely every week or month with each mortgage payment. In fact this is true around the world for almost all Borrowers. We pay our mortgages and loans on terms dictated by the Lender without the expertise of a new wave of professionals who specialize in turning debt and mortgage payments to the financial advantage of the Consumer.

Lenders extend their loan repayment terms over 15, 25 and 30 years for maximum profits on the loan. Consumer Mortgage Repayment Specialists could shrink those profits by thousands of dollars depending on their experience and skill at saving you excessive and unnecessary payments. With some coaching, you too could divert new dollars to pay off the home loan in record time with big savings.

You would create these savings from Mortgage over payment if you could reduce taxes, eliminate excessive interest charges and shrink other payments on the loan. Success with the new way to pay means an early end to payments for an extended number of months. These are payments that in fact, are entirely un-necessary but you think you must make because usually you follow the Lenders' Plan.

Canadians, for example, are allowed tax deductions for retirement savings, as business expenses, and as tax credits for the costs of money used for investment purposes. Unfortunately, many Consumers forgo these allowable tax deductions. These lost tax dollars could be utilized efficiently to reduce excessive mortgage interest payments.

Citizens and Residents of the United States of America too, as Borrowers, have become desensitized to this huge wastage in mortgage costs because of:

• Record low interest rates recently
• Rising house values followed by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco
• The fact that Americans can deduct interest costs on their taxes and
• Aggressive home equity loans by Banks and Mortgage Lenders so that the average North American Home has become a virtual ATM Machine loaded with instant cash available to the Home Owner to spend

As a result, Borrowers and Home Owners continue to add their hard earned dollars to huge Bank Profits, unwittingly. We lack fundamental knowledge about how best to make mortgage payments and home equity loans work in our best interests. New approaches to faster mortgage payments show results very early. Savings of $10,000.00 in one year are not uncommon. About $30,000.00 of savings after three years of payments is almost always achievable.
Any good early, mortgage re-payment program can cause the disappearance of as many as 70 to 120 months of mortgage payments you no longer must make. In order to succeed, the Borrower must follow with discipline, a skilfully designed and specific fast mortgage repayment plan that applies money concepts differently.

This is a complex field. Consumers do not know which story to believe. How do you separate the genuine Mortgage-Payment Wiz-Kid" from the fraudulent, scam Artists and Pushers of get-rich-quick schemes that never work?
The News Media generally favors an easy and sensational story like credit card interest, pay day loans, or the recent surge in foreclosures. Academics, Statisticians and Researchers are not generally practical in their approach to these problems. Professionals in the Mortgage and Loans Industry have been funded largely by the Lending Establishment.

Almost all of them, including the brightest ones work for Lenders. As a result, Consumers have been abandoned, left to the mercy of Bank Profits and Mortgage Loan Officers' fees. What compounds the problem even more is the multitude of self made "Specialists", who in fact know little about the subject. Many of those who comment on fast mortgage payment options may hardly have basic college level math. Some may not ever have had any practical experience in paying a mortgage. You are reading. So here's your mortgage how to tip.

The most important tool for use in designing a good mortgage repayment plan is an amortization schedule that lists all payments from Payment #1 to the Final Payment. To design a good plan, you must compare and contrast different repayment scenarios for that mortgage. The average Canadian mortgage contract is written so that the loan will be repaid in 300 Payments. American mortgages get repaid in 360 Monthly Payments, generally. You must know and include the impact of related financial decisions such as taxes, retirement savings and investments etc. Even additional fees and costs must be considered. Three key components of your plan make a big difference in delivering dollars into your retirement account because of your skill in devising a clever mortgage repayment strategy:

The first of these components is the frequency of compounding and the frequency of payments. For example, Canadian Lenders do not exact a fee for changing from monthly payments to a bi-weekly mortgage repayment schedule. Many American Lenders charge such a fee. In Canada therefore, it is standard knowledge that you would reduce the number of years of payment from 25 to around 22 years by simply changing to a Bi-weekly mortgage payment schedule. A good plan from the new breed of Mortgage Payment Planners would pay off that mortgage in 10 to 12 years.

The second major planning component is the application of tax rules to benefit the Borrower. Our generous Uncle Sam allows US Taxpayers to deduct the interest on the mortgage loans on their homes to a maximum loan size of one million dollars. Canadian Mortgage Payment Planners, however, must distinguish themselves by devising various schemes to make the Canadian Mortgage Interest Tax deductible. Clever yet perfectly legitimate tax planning schemes could make a difference in your mortgage costs to the tune of tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Thirdly, a clever investment program that is closely integrated with the mortgage repayment plan could free you, the Borrower from loan payments much sooner and leave an Investment Account at the end.

Consumers have been diverted successfully to focus their attention on the low interest rate game. They are also enticed with other gimmicks such as interest-only payments, 100 percent financing, cash back from the mortgage at closing. These offers sedate and distract us from the real meaningful issues such as the time it would take to repay the entire loan. How much does the mortgage really cost? Such costs must be counted in before tax dollars and in after tax dollars. What are the penalties, fees and costs for early repayment?

A fast mortgage payment plan that ignores any of those three key components above is an Amateur’s Plan. Unfortunately, most mortgage pay off plans do not include such considerations. At the time of approvals and funding, Consumers become overwhelmed with the mortgage process. Even professionals, like dentists and doctors, teachers, nurses and police, even accountants and financial planners can be so intimidated with the experience that they accept the Lenders' Payment Plan without question. That payment plan usually has a built-in, profit pool to be counted in the hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage. The new breed of Mortgage Payment Specialists knows how to design a Consumer friendly, Mortgage Payment Plan that integrates tax issues, compounding frequency and investments. All three components, when skilfully integrated into a mortgage payment plan, deliver savings counted in the hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage.

Already you can see that the overwhelming majority of Borrowers do not usually create their own specific, mortgage payment plan. Those who do would not have the tools to integrate tax planning, payment and compounding frequency, in addition to investments into their plan. So you must consult an expert who has those skills. Since space does not permit, we will end here. Later on, we will explore the real benefits of a Fast Mortgage Payment Plan. In another article, we will explain the magnitude of those savings in numbers the size of which once again are too often misunderstood.

Vancouver Housing Starts Drop

2009-05-11T06:13:00.000-07:00

Metro Vancouver housing starts showed another substantial drop in April leaving new-home construction at about one-third the level it was a year ago, according to figures from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

Builders started work on 483 new homes across Metro Vancouver in April, almost 70 per cent fewer than April, 2008.

To the end of April they'd started 2,302 new housing units, some 66 per cent fewer than the first four months of last year.

Starts were down in every municipality except Delta, which has seen construction start on 93 new homes up to the end of April, a 75-per-cent increase from a year ago.

"New home construction is facing competition from a well-supplied resale market and a growing inventory of unsold new homes," Robyn Adamache, a Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. analyst said in a news release.

"Builders will remain on the sidelines until some of the existing new and resale supply is absorbed."

Construction across B.C.'s urban areas remained depressed in April with builders starting only 842 new homes during the month, down 73 per cent from the 3,092 started in the same month a year ago.

Once booming Kelowna saw the steepest decline with only 29 new starts in April, down 88 per cent from the 249 started in the same month a year ago.

In Victoria, starts were down 87 per cent at 54 units, and in Chilliwack starts were down 87 per cent at 21 new units.

Vernon was the only urban area to see an increase in starts with 64 new units reprsenting a 16 per cent increase from a year ago.

Overall, however, builders started work on just 3,363 new homes to the end of April compared with 11,385 in the first four months of last year.

Condos as attractive investment

2009-05-04T19:51:00.000-07:00

More people are seeing condominiums as an attractive investment opportunity than was the case a year ago, according to a survey released Monday.

TD Canada Trust said 44% of respondents in a survey of urban Canadians said conditions had improved over the last year with regard to the prospects of buying a condo for investment purposes. That was up from 21% in a similar survey done last year.

The bank said lower prices and Canada mortgage rates are the main reason people are being drawn to condos as a way to make money over the longer term.

"This is a good time to explore a condo purchase given that mortgage rates are very attractive right now and many condos have dropped significantly in price," Joan Dal Bianco, the bank's vice-president of real estate secured lending, said in a statement

In fact, 43% of the respondents said if they couldn't afford a condominium right now, they'd consider partnering with a friend or relative to buy one for investment purposes.

But there were other reasons than investing people had for wanting to buy a condo. The most popular one, cited by 39 per cent of survey takers, was that condos require less maintenance than house do. The second most cited reason for buying a condo, a 21 per cent, was that they're more affordable than houses.

The survey, done by Angus Reid Strategies, involved 200 respondents in the cities or surrounding areas of Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax between March 30 and April 7.

TD Lowers Residential Mortgage Rates

2009-04-29T06:01:00.000-07:00

TD Canada Trust (TSX:TD) has lowered its residential mortgage rates between 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points, bringing the signpost five-year closed mortgage rate down 0.2 points to 5.25 per cent.

Among the changes to the bank's posted rates, a one-year open rate fell 0.15 points to 6.55 per cent, a three-year closed mortgage was reduced 0.75 to 4.15 per cent and the seven-year closed rate dropped 0.1 to 6.6 per cent.

The 10-year closed rate was unchanged at 6.7 per cent.

The moves brought TD rates roughly in line with those of Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) and Royal Bank (TSX:RY), both of whom lowered fixed rates last week on the heels of a Bank of Canada overnight rate cut.

Royal and BMO's five-year closed rates were also dropped 0.2 points to 5.25 per cent.

Last Tuesday the central bank took the overnight target rate to 0.25 per cent, the lowest level practical and committed to keep it there for a year.

The commercial banks quickly cut their prime lending rates in step with the Bank of Canada, moving the benchmark for variable-rate mortgages and other loans by a quarter-point to 2.25 per cent.

At the same time

Scotiabank (TSX:BNS) lowered its rates by between 0.3 and 0.2 per cent. Its five-year closed mortgage rate is now also 5.25 per cent.

Laurentian Bank (TSX:LB) dropped its rates by between 0.25 and 0.4 per cent. Its five-year closed rate is also 5.25 per cent, a drop of 0.2 per cent.

The End Probably Isn’t Near

2009-04-22T21:44:00.000-07:00

The closest thing to a real estate crystal ball in the last few years has been the house auctions that are regularly held around the country.

In 2006 and early 2007, the official housing statistics were still showing that house prices were holding up. But that was largely because so many sellers were refusing to sell. The auctions, made up mostly of foreclosed homes, showed the truth: house values were starting to plummet in many places.

So a few weeks ago, I decided to go to an auction at a hotel ballroom in Washington — and to study the results of several others elsewhere — with an eye to figuring out whether prices may now be close to bottoming out.

That’s clearly a huge economic question. Last week, JPMorgan’s chief financial officer told Eric Dash of The New York Times that JPMorgan, and presumably other banks, would be under pressure “until home prices stabilize and unemployment peaks.” As long as home prices are falling, foreclosures are likely to keep rising and the toxic assets polluting bank balance sheets are likely to stay toxic.

There are reasons, though, to think that prices may be on the verge of stabilizing. Relative to fundamentals, like household incomes and rents, houses nationwide now appear to be overvalued by only about 5 percent. You can make an argument that the end of the housing crash is near.

But that’s not what I found at the auctions.

•

“This is a perfect storm of opportunity,” Bob Michaelis, goateed with a shaved head, told the 300 or so people who had come to downtown Washington for the auction.

Mr. Michaelis, the auction manager, spoke from a lectern on stage, and his goal seemed to be to persuade people that they might never see a buyers’ market as good as this one. Prices have plunged, and interest rates, he said, are at “generational lows.”

“Look around to your left and your right, and you’ll see someone who sees an opportunity just like you do,” Mr. Michaelis said. “We’re approaching the bottom of the market, I think. We’re approaching the bottom of the market, if we’re not there already.”

He then told the audience that, in the last 100 years, house prices have recovered from every downturn and gone on to reach record highs. Oh, and Wells Fargo and Countrywide were standing by, ready to offer financing to qualified auction buyers.

If nothing else, this sales pitch certainly had chutzpah. It combined the old bubble-era notion that house prices always rise over time (ignoring the fact that incomes, stock values and the price of bread do, too) with the new postcrash idea that houses must be a bargain because they’re a lot cheaper than they used to be. Even Countrywide, which was taken over by Bank of America after so many of its subprime mortgages went bad, is still part of the housing pitch.

Yet as soon as the auction began, it was clear that the pitch wasn’t working.

The winning bid on the first home auctioned off, a two-bedroom townhouse in Virginia Beach, was $115,000. Just last July, it sold for $182,000, according to property records. A four-bedroom brick house with a two-car garage in Upper Marlboro, Md., went for $375,000. Last year, it sold for $563,000.

Throughout the evening, such low-ball prices continued to win the bidding. At one point, the auctioneer, Wayne Wheat, interrupted his sing-song auction call to cheerfully ask, “Where are my investors?”

The tables that had been set up around the edges of the ballroom, reserved for people planning to buy multiple houses, were mostly empty. Many audience members, like the man in a camouflage baseball cap just in front of me, were attending their first auction.

On Sunday, my colleague Carmen Gentile went to a larger auction, in Miami, to see if my experience had been unusual. It wasn’t. The homes there also sold for just a fraction of what they would have even a year ago. The rate of decline in Miami hasn’t even slowed noticeably in recent months, according to data kept by Real Estate Disposition Corporation, known as R.E.D.C., which runs the auctions.

A recently transplanted New Yorker named Michael Houtkin won the bidding on a one-bedroom condominium on the outskirts of Boca Raton, a few blocks from three golf courses, for the incredible price of $30,000. “Things were almost being given away,” he said later.

As is often the case at these auctions, the seller of the condo — Fannie Mae — retained the right to refuse the winning bid and keep the property. But Mr. Houtkin told me he was optimistic his bid would be accepted. An R.E.D.C. employee suggested to him that $30,000 wasn’t much below the minimum price that Fannie Mae had hoped to receive.

How could that be? Because Fannie Mae, like many banks, is inundated with foreclosed properties. In recent weeks, banks have begun accelerating foreclosures again, after having held off while waiting to find out which homeowners would be eligible for the Obama administration’s assistance program.

The glut of foreclosed homes creates a self-reinforcing cycle. Falling prices lead to more foreclosures. Foreclosures lead to an excess supply of homes for sale. The excess supply then leads to further price declines. Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says that the “massive amount of excess supply” means that home prices nationwide will probably fall an additional 15 percent.

This estimate hides a lot of variation, too. In Miami, Goldman forecasts, prices could drop an additional 33 percent, which is pretty amazing since they’ve already fallen 50 percent from their 2006 peak.

Nor is excess supply the only reason prices still have a way to fall. Nationwide, homes may not be overvalued by much. But in some cities, including New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, Chicago and Miami, they remain very expensive. So while Mr. Hatzius and his Goldman colleagues are somewhat more pessimistic than most forecasters, the difference isn’t enormous.

I’ll confess that this bearish picture isn’t exactly what I had hoped to find. A year ago, as part of a move from New York to Washington, my wife and I bought our first house. We did so fully expecting prices to continue falling (though perhaps not as much as they ultimately will, given the severity of the financial crisis). But we decided they had fallen enough for us to take the plunge. We preferred buying before the bottom of the market instead of renting and having to move again in a year or two.

Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn’t have to move probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.

They don’t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.

The market is still coming your way.

Canada Mortgage Rates Not Likely to Fall

2009-04-15T07:36:00.000-07:00

Mortgage rates in Canada, which have plunged by almost 50 percent in the last year, aren’t likely to fall further, said Phil Soper, chief executive officer of Brookfield Real Estate Services Fund.

“Certainly with the Bank of Canada’s target rate set at virtually zero, there’s very little room,” Soper said today at a conference in Toronto on Canada’s real estate market. The rate is “the lowest it’s been in anyone in this room’s lifetime.”

Rates for home loans have been dropping during the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, with some lenders offering mortgages approaching 4 percent, Soper said. That compares with an average posted five-year rate of 7.5 percent a year ago, according to the Bank of Canada. He added that home prices in Canada aren’t likely to rise “sharply” over the next two years.

Bank of Montreal, which sponsored the conference, lowered its rate for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage this month to 4.15 percent.

“We are approaching almost zero interest rates,” at the Bank of Canada, said John Turner, the Toronto-based bank’s director of mortgages. “The question becomes, how much upward pressure will there be as we come out of this recession?”

The Bank of Canada last month cut its benchmark lending rate to 0.5 percent, its lowest ever, and said it’s preparing to use policies beyond interest rate moves to revive an economy hit by a recession and tight credit markets. The next rate announcement is April 21.

Canadian existing home sales rose in February for the first time since September as buyers took advantage of lower mortgage rates and prices, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Multiple Listing Service. Sales of existing homes rose 8.6 percent from January to28,669 units.

Bank of Montreal senior economist Sal Guatieri predicted that Canada’s housing market will decline further this year, without the “crash” experienced in the U.S.

Canada housing starts post strong increase

2009-04-09T13:12:00.000-07:00

Canadian housing starts rose an unexpectedly strong 13.7 per cent in March, breaking a six-month losing streak thanks to renewed strength in Ontario and Quebec, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said Wednesday.

Ground breaking on new homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 154,700 units from an upwardly revised 136,100 units in February, CMHC said.

Analysts had predicted 130,000 starts in March.

The Canadian dollar strengthened on the data and by 8:25 a.m. was at $1.2331 to the U.S. dollar, or 81.10 U.S. cents, compared to $1.2378, or 80.78 cents, at Tuesday's close.

Construction of urban single-family homes rose 1.3 per cent to 46,400 units last month from 45,800 in February. Construction of multiple dwellings, such as condos, jumped by 28.3 per cent to an annual rate of 81,500 units from 63,500.

"New home construction is now at a more sustainable level after having been exceptionally strong over the past seven years, exceeding 200,000 units per year," the CMHC said in a statement.

Rural starts in March were estimated at an annual rate of 26,800 units, unchanged from February.

The housing downturn in Canada has hit starts, home prices as well as sales activity. Economists describe this as part of a "correction" in the sector, which is expected to last the better part of this year before rebounding in 2010.

Canada's financial system better than most

2009-04-01T16:40:00.000-07:00

The world needs a new way to supervise and regulate financial systems to restore stability and might want to follow Canada's example, the governor of the Bank of Canada said yesterday.

In a lecture to the University of Alberta's school of business, Mark Carney said Canada has weathered the financial storm better than most.

"Our system is better,'' Carney said. "Regulation has been more consistent. Our banks have been more conservative.

"Credit conditions in Canada remain superior to those in virtually every other industrialized country," he said.

"Canada is in a good position to offer sound advice as leaders of the G20 prepare for this week's summit in London. The core of our system has many -- although not all -- of the elements of a more sustainable, global financial system.''

Carney said that all financial activities that can pose a major risk to stability should be regulated.

However, he disagreed with the idea that banks should be tightly restricted to their core functions -- taking deposits and making loans -- and kept away from financial markets.

"To this way of thinking, banks could not then get themselves into trouble, or if they did, their demise could be safely managed," Carney said.

"But this is impractical, because banks and their roles are vital to the existence of markets. They are agents and underwriters and traders of most government and corporate debt.

"They provide cross-border financing products which are key services in a world of global corporations."

The better solution, he said, is to expand the perimeter of regulation to better supervise more players.

Carney placed much of the blame for the present financial crisis on the rise of a so-called shadow banking system, which appeared in recent years and usurped many of the functions normally provided by banks.

Canadian Mortgage brokers, finance companies, hedge funds, structured investment vehicles and the like grew enormously, but were performing without a safety net. The shadow system was wholly reliant on the continuous availability of funding markets.

As liquidity began to dry up last August, the whole structure tottered.

"The regulatory system neither appreciated the scale of this activity, nor adequately adapted to the new risks created by it," he said. "The shadow banking system was not supported, regulated or monitored in the same fashion as the banking system. With hindsight, the shift toward the shadow banking system that emerged in other countries was allowed to go too far for too long."

"It's time to regulate this system and this week's G20 meeting will have to start that process,'' he said.

"Canada will contribute an important perspective on these issues."

Mortgage Rate Guarantees

2009-03-26T08:17:00.000-07:00

Close to half of Canadian home buyers wait less than 30 days before their home’s closing date to secure a mortgage rate, according to a recent Angus Reid poll.

The poll, commissioned by ING Direct, found that 40% of Canadian mortgage holders waited only 30 days or less in advance of the home’s closing, while another 27% waited nearly two months.

According to ING Direct, this last minute behaviour indicates that many Canadians are not taking advantage of the savings inherent in securing rate guarantees which are available as early as 90 to 120 days before a home closes.

Analysis shows that those who used the full rate guarantee period of 120 days, saved 0.18% on average or about a $1,800 over five years. These savings are based on a $200,000 mortgage with a 25 year amortization, five year fixed term at 6.96% (average posted five year fixed rate over last 10 years) and paid monthly.

According to Martin Beaudry, vice president of lending at ING Direct, not taking advantage of the full period available, is a missed opportunity. “Securing a rate guarantee, even before you start looking for a new home or your existing mortgage comes up for renewal, is a quick and simple way to save your money on mortgage interest payments over the long term. In fact, it’s the reason we’ve made guaranteeing an early rate at ING Direct that much easier via the rate hold, which essentially allows someone to hold a great rate without having to provide the information required during a more traditional pre-approval process.”

The rate hold, introduced by ING Direct this month, allows home buyers to quickly and simply hold a great rate for up to 120 days. For fixed rates this means protecting a low rate today against any increases that may occur over that time. For variable rates, it holds the best spread from ING Direct Prime, so if the spread changes and the rate increases as a result, Canadians are still protected. The service is the first of its kind in Canada, ING Direct says.

Taking full advantage of a rate guarantee period makes financial sense for both new home buyers and those with existing mortgages. In fact, those with existing mortgages are the ones who could benefit most from a rate hold.

The survey found that of the 64% of Canadians whose mortgages have come up for renewal, over one quarter (27%) indicated they let their mortgage automatically renew. Not negotiating a better rate than what is offered in a renewal letter by the current lender, or looking to alternate lenders for the best rate available in the market, means Canadians could be missing out on the opportunity to get a better rate

The survey found that Quebeckers were the worst offenders, being most likely to let their mortgages auto renew (36%) and apply for a mortgage 30 days or less before their home’s closing date (52%).

Seven Ways to Damage Your Credit Score

2009-03-22T11:23:00.000-07:00

As mortgage professionals, we feel it is of the utmost importance to inform our customers as to the significance of their credit standing and how it affects their capacity to obtain a mortgage and, even worst, affects the cost of borrowing, especially in these uncertain economic times. Making some of the following mistakes can ensure that lenders will put on a hazmat suit to handle your credit report.

Remember the good old days, way back in 2007, when the streets were paved with Credit-Gold as far as the eye could see and credit cards rained from the sky? Even the creditdestitute were treated like kings by credit card companies and courted with lavish offers of unlimited credit.

Here, in the future, the world has changed. And woe betides those who ask for loans with glaring blemishes on their credit reports. An unpaid collection is apt to be regarded like a cockroach in the consommé.

What affects your credit score and in what proportion?

The Seven Pitfalls to Avoid

1. Close credit card accounts
2. Let credit cards collect dust
3. Run up high balances
4. Apply for new credit repeatedly
5. Don’t pay fine on non-credit-card bills
6. Ignore mistakes on your credit report
7. Make late payments or skip them all together

SO, WHAT TO DO?

1. Close credit card accounts

If you intend to close some credit card accounts, remember that only recently opened accounts should be considered for closing. Length of credit history is an important component of the credit score; therefore, it’s not a good idea to cancel a source that has been long-held since payment history can have positive implications for your credit rating.

2. Do not let credit cards collect dust

It is suggested that people use their cards periodically. Burying cards in the backyard or hoarding them in a shoebox in case of an emergency may also backfire. Consumers encounter two pitfalls if a creditor closes an account for non-use: The available credit is pared down and that account no longer contributes to their credit history.

3. Run up high balances

If using too little credit sends up red flags to lenders, using Loading up on high-interest credit cards isn’t a good idea even if the reward programs are attractive. Lenders want to see people use credit just right -- not too much, not too little.

It can be damaging to cardholders who run up a high balance every month on one card and then pay it off each month. Scoring systems do not take those payments into account. Restrict the amount and sources of your credit. Remember, credit is about a convenient payment method, so make sure it fits your needs. It should never be used as money you don’t have.

5. Don't pay fines on non-credit-card bills

Other business relationships that don't normally report your good payments can turn around and bite you if you decide not to pay as agreed. A lot of service providers don't report positive information. But the minute you do something wrong, they can outsource that debt to a collection agency who will report it.

Even if you never go over the limit on your credit card, being one day late on a bill can affect your credit rating. By the way, experts recommend not spending more than 35 per cent of your allowable credit limit.

6. Ignore mistakes on your report

Say what you will about credit bureaus, they do make it easy to dispute inaccuracies on your credit report. In order to dispute something on a credit report, one must, of course,check one's credit report. It's easier than it's ever been as consumers have unfettered access to their own credit information.

Unlike other issues that affect credit scores, mistakes sometimes can be remedied easily and quickly, so it's worthwhile to keep tabs on your report. By law, credit reporting agencies must provide your Consumer Disclosure report, which differs from the credit report lenders use, if ordered via mail or fax.

7. Make late payments or skip them entirely

It seems almost too obvious, but it bears stating that paying late and missing payments altogether are stellar ways to ensure that your credit score will scrape the bottom of the barrel.

If you experience cash flow problems or a downfall in your family economic situation for some time, don’t hide, it’s the worst thing you can do. Instead, call organizations that have loaned you money. Explain the situation and tell them you want to work out a repayment plan. Remember, always pay something.

The further back in time the mistakes are, the less impact they have on your credit score. Obviously, the fewer mistakes consumers make the better for their score.

We hope this information will prove helpful; should you have any further
questions, do not hesitate to call your Mortgage Specialist; he will be happy to
help you. And remember, you always play safer when you build savings; this is,
without a doubt, the best way to have a good night’s sleep.

Housing Market Up 8.6%

2009-03-18T09:30:00.000-07:00

Canada's housing industry showed signs of life in February after several months of declines, with resales rising 8.6% from January thanks to lower mortgage rates and prices, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported Monday.

Despite February's gains, sales are still down 31% year over year, as are prices, which have fallen 9.2% in the past 12 months, CREA said.

Still, atotal of 28,669 homes changed hands in February on a seasonally adjusted basis via the industry group's Multiple Listing Service. It is the first month-to-month uptick in home-resale activity since September 2008.

"Typically, the spring market we're moving into generates more activity, and this year there are the benefits from historically low mortgage rates and improved affordability in most markets," said CREA president Calvin Lindberg.

CREA cautioned that listings remain high, although the number is trending lower, with 65,060 units listed for sale in February, down 10.9% from the same month a year ago.

"The housing supply is expected to continue easing, but it will take time before it realigns with lower demand," said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

"Economic uncertainty is keeping home buyers in a cautious mood, so homes are taking longer to sell than in recent years. Lower sales activity at the higher end of the price spectrum will keep the national MLS residential average price under downward pressure."

The national average price for home sales via the MLS was $281,972. Canada Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are near historic lows. On Friday, for instance, TD Canada Trust lowered its seven-year fixed mortgage rate by 0.2 points to 6.8%.

CREA said February's 9.2% annualized price decline is smaller than year-over-year drops posted in the past four months and is the first time the pace of decline decelerated since turning negative in July 2008.

"The report does offer some hope that the decline in Canadian home prices may have stabilized somewhat in February after appearing to have accelerated in the latter months of 2008," said TD Securities economics strategist Millan Mulraine.

"Not surprisingly, the biggest decline in prices were in Calgary (down 10.8% year over year), Greater Vancouver (down 13%), and Windsor (down 15.7%). However, prices in Toronto (down 5.4%) were also lower, while prices in Montreal (up 2.2%) and Quebec City (up 9.3%) continue to rise, albeit at a more modest clip," Mr. Mulraine said.

Canada housing starts fall 12.3 percent

2009-03-11T06:03:00.000-07:00

Canadian housing starts fell by a greater-than-expected 12.3 percent in February on declines from the single and multiple dwellings sectors, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Monday.

New home construction dropped to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 134,600 units from 153,500 units in January, CMHC said.

The number of starts in February was below the consensus expectations of analysts who had called for 145,000 starts.

Urban single family home construction declined 11 percent to 44,500 units last month from 50,000 units in January. New construction of multiple dwellings, such as condos, fell 17.5 percent to an annual rate of 63,300 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 26,800 units in February.

Interest rate cuts

2009-03-03T15:04:00.000-08:00

The Bank of Canada has cut a key short-term interest rate about as low as it can go in what is becoming a frantic effort to spark recovery from a recession it admits it has misjudged.

The central bank did what virtually every private sector economist advised it to do Tuesday morning, slashing the trend-setting overnight rate to 0.5 per cent into uncharted territory.

But bank governor Mark Carney, who was criticized for being overly rosy in his January economic outlook, now says that even at such unheard-of lows, the stimulus provided by traditional monetary policy is likely not enough.

And he said the bank now sees recovery coming later than it had projected, possibly in early 2010.

‘‘Given the low level of the target for the overnight rate, the bank is refining the approach it would take to provide additional monetary stimulus, if required, through credit and quantitative easing,’’ Carney wrote in a statement.

The central banker does not give examples of specific measures, but BMO deputy chief economist Doug Porter said the bank is considering a process whereby it injects money into the system buy buying up assets such as government bonds, asset-backed commercial paper and even government bonds directly.

‘‘Simply put, the bank is preparing to pull out all the stops to support the economy,’’ he said.

Canada’s major banks appeared ready to play ball with Carney: shortly after the announcement, Royal Bank (TSX:RY), Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO), TD Bank (TSX:TD) and CIBC (TSX:CM) announced that they would cut their prime rates in step with the central bank.

The reference to non-traditional monetary measures confirms that Carney knows he has exhausted interest rate cuts as a means of stimulating the economy out of a deepening and increasingly stubborn recession.

Darcy Briggs of Bissell Investment Management in Calgary said the bank could trim rates to 0.25 per cent — as the U.S. Federal Reserve has done — but ‘‘practically, what would that do?’’

As former Liberal cabinet minister and economist Doug Peters wrote last week: ‘‘Interest rates that count, such as interbank lending rates, mortgage lending rates, bank commercial lending rates, are all unusually high, especially considering that inflation is also very close to zero.’’

The other surprise was that Carney appeared to back off his relatively rosy forecast for the Canadian economy, which envisioned growth returning in the third quarter of this year and rebounding to 3.8 per cent next year.

‘‘The outlook for the global economy has continued to deteriorate since the bank’s January... update, with weaker-than-expected activity in major economies,’’ Carney said Tuesday.

‘‘National accounts data for the fourth quarter of 2008 and other indicators of aggregate demand point to a sharper decline in Canadian economic activity and a larger output gap through the first half of 2009 than projected in January.’’

Carney said potential delays in stabilizing the global financial system, along with low consumer confidence and larger hit on household wealth, ‘‘could mean that the output gap will not begin to close until early 2010.’’

Tuesday’s statement does not officially alter the forecast, but strongly implies that both this year’s 1.2 per cent contraction will be worse and that the recession may last until next year.

Most economic indicators have come in far weaker since January’s much-criticized bank outlook, including Monday’s report that the Canadian economy has shrunk by 3.4 per cent in the last quarter of 2008, far worse than the bank’s negative 2.3 per cent projections.

As well, Canada lost 129,000 jobs in January, a massive amount, which Carney did not know when he made his forecast.

But possibly the most critical factor is that the global economy, especially among industrialized nations, appears to be in free-fall.

The fourth quarter saw GDP fall by 6.2 per cent in the United States, six per cent in the United Kingdom, 5.7 per cent in the Eurozone, 10.3 per cent in Mexico and a massive 12.7 per cent in Japan.

And far from stabilizing, the U.S. financial system is lurching from crisis to crisis. On Monday, the U.S. government said it was adding another $30 billion to the bail-out package for the giant insurance company American International Group Inc. after it reported a staggering US$61.7-billion in quarterly losses.

‘‘Stabilization of the global financial system remains a precondition for the global and Canadian economic recoveries,’’ Carney noted in his statement.

Carney also forecast that inflation will likely be lower than expected this year.

House market hit worse than expected

2009-02-25T06:37:00.000-08:00

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says the downturn in the economy will drive new-home construction to a nine-year low in 2009, a forecast that differs significantly from what the Crown corporation was saying in November.

But Bill Clark, senior economist at CMHC, said it was impossible last quarter to predict the economic decline we are seeing and the impact it would have on the economy.

Three months ago, CMHC forecast 177,975 homes would be built this year. Thursday, that figure was adjusted to 160,250 -- a level not seen since 2000. The forecast would mean a 24% decline from the 211,056 units constructed last year.

"There have been some issues that have come up in the economy that were not foreseen, that's been the case for much of the forecasting," Mr. Clark said.

The drop in construction would mark the end of arguably the strongest housing market in Canadian history, a seven-year run of more than 200,000 units built each year. It would also mean the industry is building fewer than the 175,000 units the country needs based on demographic estimates.

"There has been also a lot of new listings lately," said Mr. Clark, referring to the market for existing-home sales, as one of the reasons for the contraction in new construction. He said consumers have a wider choice in the existing-home market and that's driving them away from buying a new home.

CMHC's forecast says existing-home sales will drop almost 15% this year from 2008 while the average sale price will fall by 5.2% to $287,900. It is predicting a modest recovery in 2010 with sales up about 9% but the average sale price will improve by only $200.

Benjamin Tal, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets, says the lack of liquidity in the housing market makes it difficult to forecast where prices will eventually settle.

"The resale market is basically paralyzed," said Mr. Tal, referring to the fact that year-over-year sales are down as much as 50% in some markets, such as Vancouver. "The market is in a state of shock. Nothing is happening. The prices we are getting now are just a rough proxy. It's not an accurate reading."

Mr. Tal said that as the unemployment rate rises, house prices will fall as people are forced to sell. He doesn't see a correction comparable to the United States.

"The unemployment rate will rise from 7% to 9% but that's still 91% people employed although they will be concernd about their job. What do you do when you are concerned about your job, you save your money. The housing market will be boring," Mr. Tal said.

Hamilton builder Jeff Paikin said he still feels confident in the market and will keep building but like many in his industry he says financing issues are making life tougher for him.

"The banks are making it more difficult to access capital. It is available but on more stringent terms," he says. Where once you could get financing for condominium with 50% of the building presold, the figure is now 65%.

"It is harder to get to that presale level because there is less urgency to buy," says Mr. Paikin. "The pressure is on because you have to get to the 65%, so you can get your financing and start building so the first people who bought into a project don't walk away."

Housing market not collapsing

2009-02-16T07:15:00.000-08:00

The Canadian housing market is cooling but is not facing a U. S. style meltdown, builders here say.

"A few commentators have draw an a parallel between the Canadian housing situation and the extreme difficulties in the housing market in the United States," the Canadian Home Builders' Association said in a report yesterday that dismisses such comparisons.

"There is absolutely no merit in drawing such a parallel," the construction lobby said in a report that contends the pace of housing construction in Canada is merely returning to a level that is consistent with underlying housing requirements following the boom of recent years.

"The housing situation in Canada is totally different from that of the U. S.," it said. "There will be some price moderation in some markets, but there is nothing to suggest that housing markets in Canada are vulnerable to the oversupplies and plunging prices that characterize many markets in the U. S.

"We did not experience the same housing boom conditions that occurred in the U. S., and there is no reason to expect that we are in for the serious pain they are currently suffering," it said.

To support its argument that the Canadian housing market is not going the way of the U. S. market, it cited a variety of differences:

-Unlike in the U. S., underwriting standards for qualifying mortgage borrowers in Canada have been maintained at prudent levels resulting in mortgage borrowers here being much more creditworthy.

-Canadian mortgage lenders never offered low initial 'teaser' rate mortgages that led to most of the difficulties for mortgage borrowers in the United States.

-Most mortgages in Canada are held by their original lender, not packaged and sold to third parties as is typical in the United States, and consequently, Canadian mortgage lenders have a vested interest in ensuring that their mortgage borrowers are creditworthy and not likely to default.

House Market-Prices continue to fall

2009-02-10T06:20:00.000-08:00

The average price of a Canadian home is expected to decline by 8 per cent this year before rising by about 1 per cent in 2010, says a forecast by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

"We are caught in a cycle where consumer confidence has been eroded by job losses, and consumer confidence is an essential ingredient for housing sales activity," CREA president Calvin Lindberg said in a report released yesterday.

The average Canadian home price was $303,594 at the end of 2008, but that should drop to $279,400 by the end of this year before rebounding slightly next year, according to the association that represents realtors in Canada.

Ontario should see prices fall to an average of $279,100, down from $302,354, while British Columbia will see the biggest hit to prices with a fall of 10.9 per cent, followed by Alberta at 8.9 per cent. Newfoundland is predicted to buck the trend, with prices rising by 4.8 per cent this year.

Sales activity is also forecast to fall by 16.9 per cent this year, but realtors are predicting a rebound of 9.9 per cent in 2010, marked by a second-half acceleration based on a recovering economy.

While the forecast is optimistic compared with those of some analysts – who believe the housing market may not recover for several years given the last housing downturn, which saw average prices fall for seven straight years in the Toronto area – the report is in line with other economists who predict the housing market will start to show signs of recovery next year.

"The correction in Canada's housing market continues to unfold and it appears the pace is a bit quicker than we had originally anticipated," Charmaine Buskas, senior economics strategist with TD Securities, said in a note yesterday. "In the face of continued economic weakness, housing may not see a rebound until early 2010."

Canadian housing starts fell 10.9 per cent in January to 153,500 annualized units, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, resulting in the slowest pace of residential construction activity since 2001, according to a separate report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. yesterday.

"The Canadian housing correction is in full swing, having a wide impact across the country," BMO Capital Markets economist Robert Kavcic said in a note. "With sales activity showing no signs of life, residential construction will be under pressure for most of 2009."

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 2,670 sales in January compared with 5,075 at the same time last year, a drop of 47 per cent.

The average price was $343,632 – more than $30,000 less than the same time last year.

Meanwhile, a report by Toronto-based Altus Group reiterates fears over the burgeoning condo inventory in the Greater Toronto Area.

According to the housing research firm, 94 new projects were launched in the GTA in 2008, with 55 per cent of units remaining unsold by year's end.

Altus forecasts project cancellations will be more frequent this year as "many projects in the pre-construction stage are far from achieving a sufficient per cent of units sold to obtain financing."

The report says the situation may be less dire than during the housing bubble of the '80s because mortgage rates and investor activity were much higher then.

Fast Mortgage Payment Plan

2009-02-04T06:24:00.000-08:00

Creating a fast mortgage repayment plan can save you a bundle. Having such a plan is itself a revolutionary idea. Action delivers guaranteed results. Here are key components to include that will save your mortgage dollars counted in the $100,000.00's.

New and revolutionary mortgage payment discoveries explain how Consumers in Canada, the United States, the UK, Australia and the Commonwealth, give away huge amounts of money, freely every week or month with each mortgage payment. In fact this is true around the world for almost all Borrowers. We pay our mortgages and loans on terms dictated by the Lender without the expertise of a new wave of professionals who specialize in turning debt and mortgage payments to the financial advantage of the Consumer.

This article is restricted to mortgage payment practices in Canada and the United States, since these are the mortgage markets most familiar to us. Lenders extend their loan repayment terms over 15, 25 and 30 years for maximum profits on the loan. Consumer Mortgage Repayment Specialists could shrink those profits by thousands of dollars depending on their experience and skill at saving you excessive and unnecessary payments. With some coaching, you too could divert new dollars to pay off the home loan in record time with big savings. You would create these savings from Mortgage over payment if you could reduce taxes, eliminate excessive interest charges and shrink other payments on the loan. Success with the new way to pay means an early end to payments for an extended number of months. These are payments that in fact, are entirely un-necessary but you think you must make because usually you follow the Lenders' Plan.

Canadians, for example, are allowed tax deductions for retirement savings, as business expenses, and as tax credits for the costs of money used for investment purposes. Unfortunately, many Consumers forgo these allowable tax deductions. These lost tax dollars could be utilized efficiently to reduce excessive mortgage interest payments.

Citizens and Residents of the United States of America too, as Borrowers, have become desensitized to this huge wastage in mortgage costs because of:

• Record low interest rates recently
• Rising house values followed by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco
• The fact that Americans can deduct interest costs on their taxes and
• Aggressive home equity loans by Banks and Mortgage Lenders so that the average North American Home has become a virtual ATM Machine loaded with instant cash available to the Home Owner to spend

As a result, Borrowers and Home Owners continue to add their hard earned dollars to huge Bank Profits, unwittingly. We lack fundamental knowledge about how best to make mortgage payments and home equity loans work in our best interests. New approaches to faster mortgage payments show results very early. Savings of $10,000.00 in one year are not uncommon. About $30,000.00 of savings after three years of payments is almost always achievable. Any good early, mortgage re-payment program can cause the disappearance of as many as 70 to 120 months of mortgage payments you no longer must make. In order to succeed, the Borrower must follow with discipline, a skilfully designed and specific fast mortgage repayment plan that applies money concepts differently.

This is a complex field. Consumers do not know which story to believe. How do you separate the genuine Mortgage-Payment Wiz-Kid" from the fraudulent, scam Artists and Pushers of get-rich-quick schemes that never work?

The News Media generally favors an easy and sensational story like credit card interest, pay day loans, or the recent surge in foreclosures. Academics, Statisticians and Researchers are not generally practical in their approach to these problems. Professionals in the Mortgage and Loans Industry have been funded largely by the Lending Establishment. Almost all of them, including the brightest ones work for Lenders. As a result, Consumers have been abandoned, left to the mercy of Bank Profits and Mortgage Loan Officers' fees. What compounds the problem even more is the multitude of self made "Specialists", who in fact know little about the subject. Many of those who comment on fast mortgage payment options may hardly have basic college level math. Some may not ever have had any practical experience in paying a mortgage. You are reading. So here's your mortgage how to tip.

The most important tool for use in designing a good mortgage repayment plan is an amortization schedule that lists all payments from Payment #1 to the Final Payment. To design a good plan, you must compare and contrast different repayment scenarios for that mortgage. The average Canadian mortgage contract is written so that the loan will be repaid in 300 Payments. American mortgages get repaid in 360 Monthly Payments, generally.

You must know and include the impact of related financial decisions such as taxes, retirement savings and investments etc. Even additional fees and costs must be considered. Three key components of your plan make a big difference in delivering dollars into your retirement account because of your skill in devising a clever mortgage repayment strategy:

The first of these components is the frequency of compounding and the frequency of payments. For example, Canadian Lenders do not exact a fee for changing from monthly payments to a bi-weekly mortgage repayment schedule. Many American Lenders charge such a fee. In Canada therefore, it is standard knowledge that you would reduce the number of years of payment from 25 to around 22 years by simply changing to a Bi-weekly mortgage payment schedule. A good plan from the new breed of Mortgage Payment Planners would pay off that mortgage in 10 to 12 years.

The second major planning component is the application of tax rules to benefit the Borrower. Our generous Uncle Sam allows US Taxpayers to deduct the interest on the mortgage loans on their homes to a maximum loan size of one million dollars. Canadian Mortgage Payment Planners, however, must distinguish themselves by devising various schemes to make the Canadian Mortgage Interest Tax deductible. Clever yet perfectly legitimate tax planning schemes could make a difference in your mortgage costs to the tune of tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Thirdly, a clever investment program that is closely integrated with the mortgage repayment plan could free you, the Borrower from loan payments much sooner and leave an Investment Account at the end.

Consumers have been diverted successfully to focus their attention on the low interest rate game. They are also enticed with other gimmicks such as interest-only payments, 100 percent financing, cash back from the mortgage at closing. These offers sedate and distract us from the real meaningful issues such as the time it would take to repay the entire loan. How much does the mortgage really cost? Such costs must be counted in before tax dollars and in after tax dollars. What are the penalties, fees and costs for early repayment?

A fast mortgage payment plan that ignores any of those three key components above is an Amateur’s Plan. Unfortunately, most mortgage pay off plans do not include such considerations. At the time of approvals and funding, Consumers become overwhelmed with the mortgage process. Even professionals, like dentists and doctors, teachers, nurses and police, even accountants and financial planners can be so intimidated with the experience that they accept the Lenders' Payment Plan without question.

That payment plan usually has a built-in, profit pool to be counted in the hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage. The new breed of Mortgage Payment Specialists knows how to design a Consumer friendly, Mortgage Payment Plan that integrates tax issues, compounding frequency and investments. All three components, when skilfully integrated into a mortgage payment plan, deliver savings counted in the hundreds of thousands of dollars over the life of the mortgage.

Already you can see that the overwhelming majority of Borrowers do not usually create their own specific, mortgage payment plan. Those who do would not have the tools to integrate tax planning, payment and compounding frequency, in addition to investments into their plan. So you must consult an expert who has those skills. Since space does not permit, we will end here. Later on, we will explore the real benefits of a Fast Mortgage Payment Plan. In another article, we will explain the magnitude of those savings in numbers the size of which once again are too often misunderstood.

Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation

2009-01-28T05:34:00.000-08:00

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a Canada Government Crown Corporation which can provide insurance coverage on your mortgage in case of default.

That is if you can no longer service your mortgage and the lender incurred a loss as a result, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will compensate the lender for the loss.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation assists potential home buyers to purchase a home with little or no down payment sooner because you do not have to save for a downpayment.

Why do I need to buy mortgage insurance!

If you are borrowing 80% or less of the value of a property, you do not need to buy Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation insurance.

If you are borrowing more than 80% (referred as High Ratio Mortgage), you must buy insurance coverage from a mortgage insurance company before any financial institution will lend you the money.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation will provide insurance coverage, subject to borrowers meeting certain criteria, up to 100% of the value of a property.

Borrowers pay a premium ranging from 0.5% to 3.10% of the mortgage amount, depending on the loan to value ratio. The higher the ratio the higher is the premium.

There used to be a limit on the value of the property if it needs mortgage insurance. This requirement has now been eliminated and you can purchase a property of any value for mortgage insurance purposes.

Imagine what the premium will be on a $400,000.00 mortgage at maximum 3.1%. That's a cool $12,400.00. If you do not have the cash, the premium may be added to the mortgage amount and repayment spread over the amortization period chosen.

Genworth Financial Mortgage Insurance Company of Canada is a public company that can also provide default insurance coverage for high ratio mortgage.

For new mortgage the maximum amortization period is 25 years. Recently Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has extended the amortization period to 30 and 35 years at an additional premium of 0.25%. Genworth Financial Canada is offering a 30 year mortgage at a 0.2% premium and a 35 year mortgage at a 0.5% premium. The effect of a longer amortization period is that the monthly mortgage payment is reduced to a more affordable level for many borrowers.

Please note that you do not need to get in touch with CMHC or Genworth to apply for a mortgage insurance. Your mortgage broker or bank mortgage officer will apply on your behalf.

What is my chances of getting mortgage insurance?

If you have a good and proven track record, a good steady job, your income is sufficient to service your monthly mortgage payment and other debts, you have a good chance of getting approved.

Interest Rates

2009-01-19T06:55:00.000-08:00

The price or amount that someone pays for the transitory use of someone else's funds is called interest. Interest could also mean the payment that someone receives for giving up the ability to spend money temporarily for the purpose of lending the money to someone else.

The definitions clearly describe the relationship between a lender and a borrower. Lenders would not willingly allow anyone to borrow or allow him or herself the sacrifice of not spending money if there is no interest. On the other hand, borrowers would be only too happy to spend if they do not have to worry about interest rates.

If, for example, you intend to borrow $100 per year, the interest rate would be 10 percent per year. This is due to the fact that interest rates are expressed as percents per year. In the end, you would have to pay the $100 you owe and an additional $10 in interest.

There are reasons why interest rates exist, but they are different from the perspectives of a lender and a borrower. From a lender's point of view, an interest rate makes up for increasing prices of goods. This is a means to compensate him for giving up his power to purchase by lending his money to others. An interest rate also makes up for the risk that a lender makes in having his money borrowed. For bank lenders, an interest rate allows them to stay in business. The profit from interest rates allows banks to continue running.

From a borrower's point of view, an interest rate allows him to spend now, rather than later on items. Interest rates also allow a borrower to make a larger or a more expensive purchase such as a house or a car. By availing of interest rates, education becomes affordable to some borrowers. Willingness to pay interest allows business borrowers to purchase equipment, buildings and inventories to make investments and increase their profits. Some borrowers are willing to pay interest rates because they are after associated tax advantages.

An example of this is the mortgage interest, which is tax deductible in the United States. During the calculation of the income tax, the mortgage interest is subtracted. Banks, on the other hand, are willing to pay interest rates to their depositors. This is because the deposits allow them to lend money at higher interest rates and get bigger profits in return. Also, it is a known fact that banks tend to charge higher interest rates on loans than on deposits.

Moreover, interest rates are income to people who are willing to forego the use of their money. As mentioned earlier, banks give interest rates to their depositors. Similarly, you will gain interest income if you purchase a Savings Bond. On the other hand, if you think about it, an interest rate is a cost to borrowers. If the money loaned is not fully paid, interest rates have to be paid. Lastly, an interest rate is a means to move funds to where they could earn the highest rates.

Cut interest rates

2009-01-16T09:12:00.000-08:00

The Bank of Canada should cut interest rates to a record low next week to stimulate the economy, a panel of private-sector economists said Thursday as evidence of a deepening recession - globally and in Canada - mounted, including a major drop in Canadian home sales and home prices.

The C.D. Howe Institute panel called for a further half-point cut next Tuesday in the bank's trendsetting target rate to one per cent. One of the 10 members called for a full-point reduction, and another for a whopping 1.25-point drop to just 0.25 per cen

The half-point recommended by the panel would likely trigger a matching cut in the chartered banks' blue-chip prime rate - to which business and consumer floating-rate loans, including mortgages, are tied - to three per cent from an already all-time low of 3.5 per cent.

The need for further housing-market stimulus was highlighted by the Canadian Real Estate Association, which reported that home sales in December fell 1.8 per cent from November to their lowest level since 2000.

And the average price of a home plunged 11 per cent from a year earlier in December, and was down for the year as a whole, ending the nine-year housing boom of steady price gains.

"Average prices will remain under pressure during the Canadian economic recession," warned association chief economist Gregory Klump.

"There has been a fundamental shift in consumer confidence, with job insecurities prevailing in every region Canada. That is unlikely to change until the worst of the recession is behind us."

The industry association appealed to the federal government to include measures in its Jan. 27 budget to stimulate housing, including an increase from $20,000 to $25,000 in the amount homebuyers can draw tax-free out of their RRSPs for a down payment, and expanding the provision to include more than just first-time home purchasers.

However, association president Calvin Lindberg cautioned that "moderating home prices in Canada should not be confused with the downturn in the U.S. housing market" that pushed that giant economy, and in turn the global and Canadian economy, into recession.

The U.S. recession is still deepening, reports Thursday suggested.

"Consumer sentiment reached a six-year low as Americans continued to be rocked by increasing job losses, poor holiday-shopping season reports, and the ongoing inability of the government and the private sector to stabilize the economy," RBC said in a report based on a survey of U.S. consumer attitudes and spending.

Considering the U.S. consumer accounts for 70 per cent of that economy's GDP, and the U.S. accounts for 75 per cent of Canadian exports, that doesn't bode well for Canadians either.

Still, there was a hint of hope amid the rubble of the RBC survey's findings - a marginal increase from 29 per cent to 30 per cent of respondents who expect their local economy will be stronger in six months' time.

The analysis said this may reflect an enthusiasm for soon-to-be-inaugurated U.S. president-elect Barack Obama and "Americans' openness to the stimulus proposals coming out of Washington rather than any expectation that local economies will improve quickly."

In light of the deepening slump in the U.S. economy and consumer confidence, it's not surprising the mood of Canadian exporters has also hit an all-time low.

But it was concerns about domestic sales prospects that weighed most heavily on exporters, Export Development Canada chief economist Peter Hall said Thursday in releasing results of the fall survey on the confidence of exporters.

Just 28 per cent - the lowest share ever by a wide margin - expected a near-term increase in domestic sales, while only 12 per cent expected an improvement in the domestic economy, while a record high 57 per cent expected a further deterioration.

"Over the past five years, exporters were able to count on a strong domestic market to tide them through the relentless rise in the Canadian dollar," Hall said.

"Last fall, that upbeat view of the domestic scene soured considerably."

Underscoring their pessimism about the domestic economy was news from Statistics Canada of a further seven per cent drop in new car sales in November, the steepest monthly plunge in three years.

Meanwhile, showing the growing global concern about the economic crisis was a decision by the anti-inflation-focused European Central Bank to cut its trendsetting interest rate to two per cent.

Housing market in 2009

2009-01-05T09:28:00.000-08:00

In Canada, the average price of homes sold via the MLS in November fell 9.8 per cent from the same month in 2007.

CANADA: -9.8%

St. John's: +30.8%
Saint John: +5.5%
Halifax-Dartmouth: +12.6%
Ottawa-Carleton: +7.3%
Toronto: -6.3%
Kitchener-Waterloo: +2.2%
Hamilton-Burlington: +6.3%
London-St. Thomas: +1.6%
Windsor: +3.4%
Winnipeg: +1.8%
Saskatoon: +10.9%
Regina: +27.6%
Edmonton: -2.0%
Calgary: -6.0%
Victoria: -12:4%
Vancouver: -11.6%

UNITED STATES: -18%

The price of single-family U.S. homes in the 20 largest metropolitan areas fell 18 per cent in October from a year earlier.

Las Vegas: -31.7%
New York: -7.5%
Cleveland: -6.2%
Portland: -10.1%
Dallas: -3.0%
Seattle: -10.2%
Miami: -29.0%
Tampa: -19.8%
Atlanta: -10.5%
Chicago: -10.8%
Boston: -6.0%
Detroit: -20.4%
Minneapolis: -16.3%
Charlotte: -4.5%
Phoenix: -32.7%
Los Angeles: -27.9%
San Diego: -26.7%
San Francisco: -31.0%
Denver: -5.2%
Washington: -18.7%

At Christmastime a year ago, Toronto-area realtors had good reason to celebrate. The year ended with record high sales and the industry never looked healthier.

"Home buyers had to stop at Chapters last year for reading material just to stand in line for a condo," says realtor Mike Donia. "The banks were lending you money hand over fist."

One year later the turnaround has been dramatic and unprecedented.

At the end of 2007 prices rose by 7 per cent and sales by 12 per cent over the previous year.

But in September, as the global credit crunch started to exact a toll, the Toronto market finally succumbed to a 3 per cent price decline, the first such drop in more than a decade. By the end of November, the average home was some $25,000 cheaper than it was during the same time last year.

"The swiftness of the change in real estate market conditions and market sentiment was quite surprising," says RBC senior economist Robert Hogue. "For most of us looking at where the GTA economy was heading it was fairly clear there would be some dampening, but over the last few months it looked as if the market just priced in all the problems at once."

Given the credit crunch on Wall Street that has spread to markets globally, the question remains as to how much further Canadian households will be affected in 2009? For the average homeowner, the worry is whether prices will fall further and, if so, by how much.

Economists missed calling the real estate decline by a wide margin, to the point that last month the Bank of Canada warned ominously that many Canadians were in danger of losing their homes if the economic crisis gets worse.

But how did we get to this point?

The mantra, repeated endlessly by the real estate industry and some analysts, was that Canada was largely isolated from the pain in the United States, and that high oil prices and a more conservative approach to lending had helped us to partially decouple from sectors of the global economy.

"We're fine – it's the rest of the world that has problems" seemed to be the key message over the past few years.

"Canadians have watched with amazement for nearly two years now at the collapse of the housing sector in the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries that experienced overvalued housing prices with the sense that markets in this country stand on more solid ground," says Hogue.

It wasn't until last year, when prices started to fall in western provinces that some economists started to question the strength of the Canadian housing market.

And while sales in Toronto fell every month last year compared with the previous year, prices seemed to be holding the line.

"We're fine – it's the western provinces that have the problems – they appreciated too far and too fast" seemed to be the consensus then.

Analysts forecast that, after a decade-long run, the Greater Toronto Area's real estate market would be in for a "soft landing," and they seemed to be right.

In January, sales were down by only 2 per cent – a rounding error compared with the record numbers of 2007.

As the year progressed, sales started to decline further, but more importantly for homeowners, prices didn't.

But since September, prices and sales started to fall. The most recent numbers from the Toronto Real Estate Board show that, in the first two weeks of December, there were 1,487 sales, or about 48 per cent less than the same time in 2007.

Most people are hoping this is just a blip on the way to greener pastures.

After all, the Canadian economy is still fundamentally sound. It's true that our export earnings, job growth and corporate balance sheets are better than other nations, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said last month that Canada will lead the G7 nations in economic recovery in 2010.

A lot, of course, depends on what happens to our neighbours to the south. A prolonged recession means that fewer Americans will be buying cars from Ontario or lumber from British Columbia.

During the last bubble, average prices of existing home in Toronto hit $280,000 in 1989 and took seven years to sink downward, hitting bottom in 1996 at $196,000 before taking off again in 1997.

No one expects this market to be as brutal, but then again, no one expected oil to be below $50 U.S. per barrel, and a Canadian dollar more than 20 per cent less than at the start of the year.

To see what's in store for this year, the Star asked some of the country's top economists what they thought 2009 would bring for the real estate market:

"The question is what kind of correction are we having?" asks Tal. "Are we seeing a U.S.-style meltdown, or simply a recessionary correction?"

Tal says that Canada never had a subprime problem in the league of the United States, which means a market correction here will be more moderate.

"What we have is the U.S. situation minus the subprime problem, which gives you Canada," says Tal. "It's not a freefall, but it will still be a recession.

"In that case it's reasonable to expect to see a notable decline in major cities."

Tal expects average prices across the country to fall another 10 to 12 per cent by the end of 2009.

"Is this a crisis? No. Is it pretty? Still no, and you will lose two years of price appreciation. But this is part of the economic cycle."

Tal predicts that there may be a slight uptick in sales in the spring but "nothing significant" as the market will continue to level off till the end of the year.

After 2009, he is forecasting that the market will "flatline" for three or possibly four years, with not much activity, similar to the 1992 to 1997 period in the Toronto market after the last real estate bubble burst.

The most immediate problem for the Toronto market is a potential oversupply of newly built condominiums, says the economist.

Condo pricing will lead the correction down, even as he expects some future supply to be cut as developers are unable to get financing for some projects. He is bullish on the condo market in the longer run of at least five to 10 years, because new immigrants and baby boomers still will be attracted to that form of housing, says Tal.

Carl Gomez
VP research, Bentall Capital

Canada's housing market is "modestly overvalued" with home prices needing to fall by as much as 25 to 30 per cent from the peak in Alberta and British Columbia, says Gomez.

Ontario prices, he figures, are about 10 per cent overvalued.

"The market is in correction phase, and the question is how far back will we continue to go?" asks Gomez.

Protracted job losses in the key Ontario market, for example, would mean further pain. And while manufacturing has been hit over the years, Toronto has been largely isolated from the problems because of its strong financial services sector, says Gomez.

"You are starting to see some problems in the services sector now. They have been a major driver of growth in Toronto, everything from banks to insurance companies to accountants and realtors. We haven't really seen this shoe drop yet, but if you see things coming off dramatically, then things will definitely get worse and prices will be pushed down further."

Like Tal, Gomez sees the most vulnerability in the Toronto condo market.

"In some pockets it's dominated by speculators. If they sense they are not getting the kind of return they want, they are the first to pull the plug," says Gomez.

Robert Hogue
Senior economist, RBC

The next few months will be significant to determine where the market is heading, says Hogue.

"But given the economic context where conditions have deteriorated quite significantly, you'd be hard pressed to see a quick recovery," he says. "For 2009 we will likely remain in a period of fairly soft sales and declining prices."

A housing affordability study prepared by Hogue shows that homes are becoming modestly more affordable in the Toronto market.

It takes 53.3 per cent of pre-tax earnings to afford a bungalow in the Toronto market. But that's still up from the long-term average of 48.3 per cent.

"That means you've got to have a decline in interest rates or prices of homes coming down to meet the long-term average."

Still, Toronto looks solid compared with some other Canadian cities, where the affordability index is 33 per cent higher than long-term averages for Vancouver and 40 per cent for Saskatoon.

Recession, zero growth next year

2008-12-22T10:01:00.000-08:00

Canada, the best performing among the G7 economies, is officially in recession and there will no growth in 2009, the country's top bank has said in a new report.

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), the country's number one bank, said the US downturn and credit squeeze have led Canada's economy into recession.

The economy will grow by 0.6 percent in 2008 and post no growth in 2009, the report released Friday said.

Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at the RBC, said the US economy has fallen into a deep recession, dragging the Canadian economy along.

"However, we expect the slowdown in Canada not to be as severe as in other countries since the imbalances plaguing other countries are more pronounced. We expect to see a moderate, though sustained, recovery in the second half of 2009," he said.

After six years of solid gain, the report said, falling commodity prices will cut domestic income that has supported consumer, business and government spending for the past several years.

The outlook for 2009 is very bleak as the combination of falling domestic income, credit squeeze, and a rising debt-to-asset ratio will curb consumer spending, it said.

The bank said though negative growth is only expected to last the next two quarters, its impact will be far reaching, with the unemployment rate climbing to 7.4 percent in 2009.

On the economic deterioration in the US which accounts for more than 85 percent of Canada's global trade, the report said the real GDP in America will decline by 1.5 percent in 2009 because of slower export growth and weakening in global economic activity.

Though the Bank of Canada has reduced the overnight rate to 1.5 percent to stimulate the economy, the report expects the rate to be further reduced to one percent as the economy enters the weakest period for growth.

New Housing Construction

2008-12-08T11:26:00.000-08:00

Construction of new housing in Ottawa fell 36 per cent in November, led by big declines in townhouse units, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Monday.

Despite the big decline, housing starts are still running 7.7 per cent ahead of last year as builders put shovels in the ground for developments that were sold earlier in the year before sales of new units plunged this fall..

CMHC said that construction started on 492 units during the month, down from 769 units a year earlier. The big decline followed an unusually strong October in which Ottawa bucked a national decline in starts triggered by economic problems.

The number of new row housing units fell 61 per cent 108 units and single-family starts declined 31 per cent 266 units.

The declines were partly offset by increased construction of semi-detached and apartment units.

Despite a significandt decline in single-family housing starts to 266 units from 386 units a year earlier, it was still the single biggest generator of housing construction during November — a testamant to the fact that despite rising prices, buying a single-family unit is still more affordable here than in most big Canadian cities.

Sandra Perez Torres, senior Market Analyst at CMHC, said in a statement: “Single-detached construction is a better barometer of the health of the new construction market. After exceptional new construction activity in October, single detached construction still represented over half of total construction in November.

"Total housing foundations for this type of dwelling remained at a very high level, just marginally lower than last year’s numbers”, she said.

Canada Mortgage loan- tax deductable?

2008-12-03T06:54:00.000-08:00

Canadian homeowners are green with envy over the fact our neighbours to the south are allowed to deduct the interest paid on their mortgages from their taxes. Is it possible to do the same thing here?

I received an elegant little flyer in my mailbox the other day. It was a small glossy fold-over, and it had a quality look and feel to it. The only text on the front flap of the flyer asked me a provocative question: "Is your mortgage tax deductible?" The inside of the flyer told me that I could learn how to collect tax refunds from my mortgage loan. "Canadian homeowners are entitled to collect Tax Refunds from their mortgage payments under Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) guidelines for 'Cash Damming'.

By following CRA's specific guidelines for borrowing and investing, you will claim thousands of dollars in Tax Refunds every year from your mortgage." The small flyer mentioned "Tax Refund" five more times, and twice pointed out that I could use my Tax Refund to pay off my mortgage faster. That's pretty exciting,

The biggest single expense of many Canadian families is their mortgage payment, and we've all been making those mortgage payments with after-tax dollars. Many a Canadian has looked across the border in envy at the tax deductibility that Americans enjoy on their home mortgage interest. If it turns out that we can be getting Tax Refunds from our mortgage payments too, well, that's just a no-brainer.

As it happens, I am quite familiar with this topic and strategy, so I can spare you the inconvenience of having to leave the comfort of your home to discover how this works. In fact, I'm going to provide you with all the essential information that you really must know about Canadian mortgage deductibility and Tax Refunds, all in the very next paragraph! How can I possibly do that? By using an enhanced information conveyance technology I like to call No Baloney™.

Ready? Here's what you really need to know about Canadian mortgage deductibility and Tax Refunds: In Canada, when you borrow money to buy your home, you can't deduct the interest. When you borrow money to make certain investments, you may be able to deduct the interest. There. Now that we've covered all the really important stuff, let's review some of the details. First of all, nothing about buying your personal residence is tax-deductible. You don't get to deduct your mortgage interest, there are no special tricks that have escaped your notice, and you will not be getting "Tax Refunds" from your mortgage payments. Period.

That being said, when you borrow money to make investments which have a reasonable expectation of income, you may be able to deduct the interest on the debt. So if you use your home as collateral when you borrow money to invest, you may be able to deduct that interest expense from your income taxes. You could, therefore, have a mortgage with interest that is partially or entirely tax deductible.

However, it's very important to remember two things: (1) No matter how you twist it, turn it, or wordsmith-manoeuvre-it, the money you borrow to buy your principal residence is not tax-deductible; (2) The only way the interest on your home mortgage can be tax-deductible is if you borrow against the equity you already own in your home, and use that money to investment.

The reason it's so very important to be clear about this issue is that borrowing to buy a home is something that most people must do in order to buy a home, and as long as they can afford their mortgage payment, they're psychologically comfortable doing so. They generally don't worry that their money is at risk. In fact, they feel a sense of security about the equity they are building as they pay the mortgage down. Borrowing to invest, on the other hand, is not something that anyone needs to do, and most people are not psychologically comfortable with it. In order for borrowing to invest to make sense, the average long-term, after-tax return on the underlying investment has to be higher than the after-tax interest rate on the loan.

That invariably means taking on investment risk. And for most people, tolerating investment risk is already sufficiently challenging without the added stress of knowing that those investments were made with borrowed money. Think about the recent gyrations in the stock markets, and consider how using leverage might change your emotional response to the hysteria. Don't get me wrong - I'm not picking on leverage as a concept. Using "other people's money" is an age-old investment strategy, it absolutely has its place as a financial planning strategy, and I've used it myself.

What I am picking on is the packaging of leverage - a strategy that inherently adds risk to investing - as a clever and heretofore overlooked way to get tax benefits on your home mortgage. Let's be No Baloney™ clear: For some people, borrowing money to invest may be an appropriate investment strategy. But borrowing money and investing it because you can get a tax deduction on the interest expense is a ridiculous tax strategy.

Mortgage Applications

2008-11-26T13:42:00.000-08:00

In concept, getting a mortgage quote from 4 or 5 different mortgage companies is a wise decision to finding the lowest mortgage rate you qualify for. Mortgage companies and brokers alike can claim that they have hundreds of lenders and thousands of programs, and I am sure they do, but I have yet to see the one mortgage broker who has that magical lender that can get you a better mortgage then every other mortgage broker out there. The bottom line is, they all have access to the same lenders and same programs, it is just that some mortgage brokers know their programs better then others.

The problem today with submitting your information to an online mortgage lead company is that the demand for your information is at an all time high, and the supply is very low. In order for these companies to stay in business they need to be price competitive with other online mortgage lead companies. The way that they do this is by selling your information to numerous mortgage companies. Just recently I spoke to an individual who received over 40 phone calls from the one application he filled out online.

Sometimes it is not the online mortgage lead companies fault that your information gets oversold. There are other online mortgage lead companies that buy your information from the original lead company where you filled out the application and then they turn around and sell them to their client's base. After all, your information is not cheap and some mortgage companies will pay in excess of $35 for it.

The good news is, you can avoid these headaches by doing some research on your end. Over the years mortgage brokers have realized that the internet is a powerful tool that can generate mortgage applications. It is now easier to locate your local mortgage companies and fill out an application directly with them. It is very unlikely that your local mortgage company is going to sell your information to their competitors, as they are in the business of closing loans.

This is where the research on your end comes in. Using your favorite search engine, type in your city, state or even zip code followed by the word mortgage. This will generate a number of pages full of local mortgage companies that would be more then happy to compete for your business. When visiting these websites, look for quality content and educational information.
There are plenty of dull sites out there that only talk about themselves and the hundreds of lenders and thousand of loan programs with the lowest mortgage rates anywhere in the galaxy.

Home prices

2008-11-19T05:46:00.000-08:00

More than twice as many Canadians as last year say they expect home prices across the country to fall, according to a new survey by a national mortgage industry association.

The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) says that 35 per cent of Canadians now believe that home prices will drop, up from 17 per cent last fall.

Jim Murphy, the president and CEO of CAAMP, believes the survey results suggest recent news coverage of the economic crisis may be having an impact on attitudes about the housing sector.

"I think (the numbers are) reflective of the attitudes about the economy overall -- and the media reports that are out there and the statistics that are provided," he said from Toronto.

Here is what the CAAMP survey found:

Twice as many people as last fall, or 35 per cent, now believe home prices will drop.
The number of people who thought prices would go up fell from 40 per cent to 20 per cent.
Residents in the West are most negative. In B.C., 48 per cent said they expect prices to fall.
Thirty-eight per cent of Canadians believe now is a good time to purchase a house and 32 per cent say it's a bad time. These figures are similar to last year's results.

The survey also found that almost 85 per cent of home owners are satisfied with their mortgages.

"In historical terms mortgage rates are still very low, so when people are asked why they're happy about their mortgages, the number one reason is the rate," Murphy said.

CAAMP's chief economist Will Dunning said the mortgage crisis in the U.S. doesn't appear to have hurt consumer confidence in Canada's housing sector.

"Canada is a financially conservative country where consumers are able to meet the terms of their mortgages and buying decisions are based on affordability," said Dunning in a press release.

"This contributes to a solid real estate market that will not experience the same drop off we see south of the border."

The information for the CAAMP report was gathered by Maritz from an online survey of over 2,000 Canadians in mid-October. Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Associate reported that the multiple listing service (MLS) dropped 14 per cent in October. It was the biggest month-to-month decrease since mid-1994.

Buyer’s paradise

2008-11-09T09:34:00.000-08:00

While blue skies and picturesque lakes certainly drew people to this valley, its postcard-perfection hasn’t been enough to stave off the effects of worldwide economic trouble.

The first signs came when water-cooler talk changed from estimating real estate gains to lamenting losses in retirement plans and higher costs for just about everything.

Legitimate concerns about the state of the economy made consumers nervous and more thrifty, despite assurances of “strong economic fundamentals” from Canada’s mortgage economists and political leaders.

And then came the more literal signs. For Sale boards started to pop up in front of houses and never left.

Home owners and speculators who once bragged it only took a week or so to sell their houses or condos are now just boasting “reduced” or “new price” on their sale signs.

While economists were slow to acknowledge what most could surmise by a walk through their neighbourhoods, there are now significant rumblings of a slump in prices for houses this side of the border.

Some are going so far as to call it a housing recession, as realtors and sellers are already well into contingency plans that will allow them to ride out the storm.

Where the market is going

A report last month from Central 1 Credit Union said the province’s housing market in a recession, and it’s not expected to be a quick dip.

According to Helmut Pastrick, the bank’s chief economist, housing sales across B.C. will decline by 30 per cent this year, 17 per cent next year and five per cent the year after that. And prices will be in tow.

Prices will continue falling from their March 2008 high into next year, bringing the provincial median sales price down 13 per cent to $310,000 in 2009 and by a further five per cent in 2010—in total nearly an 18 per cent drop.

Things are supposed to look up later that year following a sales turnaround and relaxing credit conditions. “Recession in any industry—housing, auto or lumber—is a period where the industry experienced sustained declines in output and in prices, and that fits what’s happening in B.C.,” said Pastrick.

He noted that the Okanagan won’t be exempt from any downward trend.

“All regions are participating in this to largely the same degree and the trends and conditions are very similar throughout the province, which is usually the case when we have major economic event or factor coming into play.”

That major economic effect is, of course, the financial crisis in the United States, which has put a crimp on the many industries that are finding it difficult to access credit and move operations forward.

In turn, its stagnated economic growth across the U.S., and to some degree, in Canada hypotheque as well.

“As the general economy suffers and slows down, it has feedback into housing sector.”

Over at the B.C. Real Estate Board, chief economist Cameron Muir is on the same page, although his group’s fall forecast projects declines in the area of 10 per cent, as opposed to 18.

According to him, Okanagan home prices should be down to 2006 levels by the end of the year and remain flat throughout 2009.

“Throughout the province there’s quite an imbalance between supply and demand. There are more homes for sale, while home buyers have dropped off considerably from a year ago, and the combination of those two factors has put downward pressure on prices,” he said.

Muir said real estate markets most conducive to recreation and investment buyers— such as the Okanagan—will be a little bit worse off than major markets, like Victoria and Vancouver, simply because of the fact that there are fewer investment and recreation home buyers around now.

Kelowna, he said, is well diversified but part of the responsibility of the downward trend can be placed upon the same group who helped drive up prices.

Just as fast as oil money flowed into the Okanagan, it’s started to dry up in relation to the Albertan housing market flattening.

Calgary, for example, saw their housing prices start to tumble months before B.C. felt any pangs of contraction, said Muir.

Basically, that’s meant those who were leveraging gains in home equity for new home purchases are out of luck and, as a result, no longer looking to buy.

But, that’s not what Kelowna residents will have to worry about.

The real test of how this region will fare is the level to which residents are able to comfortably live and work here, Muir said.

“What we really need to look at is what are the financial conditions and the confidence of people who live work and raise their families there because they are the ones who drive positive demand,” he said.

“Unlike the U.S., the financial condition of households in this province, and in Kelowna, are on relatively strong footing.”

B.C. isn’t seeing a sharp increase in foreclosure activity, the unemployment rate is staying quite low from a historical perspective as are interest rates, Muir said.

“Without a collapse in household financial positions, homeowners are not in a position where they have to sell at any price like they are in the U.S.”

According to Muir, the biggest stumbling block is consumer confidence, which is at the lowest it’s been in 26 years.

Realtors

A lack of consumer confidence is something local realtors are far too familiar with.

Ian Share, of the Century 21 office in Glenmore, has seen a sharp decline in sales, although he said he remains busy. The problem, as he sees it, is that sellers are having a hard time adjusting to the market. A house that may have flown off the market a year ago for a cool $500,000 isn’t going to have the same appeal today as buyers have far more to choose from and are taking their time.

While his focus is on North Glenmore, Lake Country and Phoenix, Arizona, he says only the latter market is seeing eager buyers.

Share tapped into the Phoenix market successfully to pursue an opportunity he saw resulting from the U.S. financial crisis.

“The conclusion you can start to draw is that the real estate market is adjusting and correcting massively and that the buyers that are willing to step up to the plate are few and far between,” he said.

“Generally they consist of investors picking up rental properties and other clients who are relocating here for work.”

Drawing upon some of his office stats, Share also pointed to a much sharper decline than the 10 or 20 per cent the economists are forecasting—and it’s happening now.

Share was the listing agent on one of only two homes that sold in Lake Country (excluding Carrs Landing) last month—118 were listed.

While the lack of sales may be disturbing, Share pointed out it’s actually the pricetag changes that are the most dramatic, citing the two Lake Country listing sales examples.

“One was originally listed for $549,000 and sold for $400,00—that’s a difference of $149,000,” he said.

“The other was originally listed for $449,000 and sold for $351,500—that’s a difference of $97,500.”

In the months leading to the dry spell, Share added only nine single family homes sold and the average price difference from the original list price to the sold price was $37,966, whereas this last month the average price difference was $123,250.

“Even though we’re been reassured that our banking system is solid and that our economy is ticking along nicely…in my opinion we’re crazy to think that Canada is impervious to some sort of significant adjustment in our economy and in the real estate market,” he said.

That said, this is the time for buyers to gather their resources and plunge into the market and time for sellers to start listening to their agents, Share believes.

“Sellers that are in this current market generally dump realtors if they haven’t sold their homes during the listing period, and they probably most likely figure they’ll just get someone else that will get the job done,” he said.

“The majority of time it may not be the fault of the realtor if he or she priced it correctly and aggressively to start with…If it isn’t priced right in this market then both the realtor and the seller get frustrated as they’re simply just spinning their wheels.”

Over at Coldwell Banker, Horizon Realty, Paul Pofpnikoff is also feeling the pinch.

Like Share, he’s finding a way to leverage the conditions of the current market so they work to his benefit and opened a sideline project.

Focusing on developers who have a property they need to market, he’s created a website—www.propertyexchangekelowna.com—that lures potential buyers from markets as far flung as Europe.

He has to go there “to create opportunities” because he admits things have dried up locally.

“I know realtors have to have this rosy picture, but currently there aren’t many buyers and I am finding many people that could are resorting to renting their place rather than selling it,” he said.

“I have had vendors calling about listing, and quickly changing their mind, saying, ‘The price we’d be getting wouldn’t be good enough—we’ll rent for a year or two until the market gets better.’”

It’s something “everyone” is seeing and he too blames it on the problems in the U.S., the “troubling effect it’s had on the psychology of the buyer.”

Reduce the price, or rent?

For contractor Robert Tissington, building, buying and selling homes has been a way of life for as long as he can remember.

It’s what his dad and grandfather did, and he followed their lead into the local market a few years ago.

His first house—among several properties he owns and can’t currently sell—was purchased in Kelowna’s North End a few years ago for about $200,000.

He added a carriage house to it for about $130,000 and got ready to move into another place.

When he listed his property with a real estate agent, he was told to list somewhere in the area of $700,000, which he thought to be quite high, but competitive. It didn’t move. His price dropped by nearly 10 per cent and it still didn’t move.

With that, he decided to take it off the market.

“A year ago I thought selling it for about $550,000 would have been brilliant, but it’s the type of property you hang onto,” he said.

His property is a good rental—a market that’s not shrinking—and will continue to earn as the real estate market fluctuates.

In the meantime, he didn’t see the point of putting his life on hold waiting for the property to sell.

“The amount of tire kickers you have to go through—the people who want to see all the houses, but aren’t prepared to buy, even if they think they are—just aren’t worth it.”

He’s comfortable with the idea of riding out the changes in the meantime, and as a contractor thinks he sees a lot of opportunity in the current market—if not to sell, to buy.

“You just sort of acquiesce, give it a reasonable chance, and go off in another direction,” he said.

“Now I feel great about the decision, but you have to be moving forward or backward.”

Tissington said that the current market should have been expected, as Kelowna functions on a six-year cycle.

“Prices peak and everybody lists when they sense it’s the end of cycle and then there’s a glut of houses on the market,” he said. “The last one was in 2001, and before that in 1993-94.”

When he bought his house for $212,000, that seemed like an incredible amount of money for an old house, but he pointed out it was worth the investment.

“This whole economic situation is running alongside what may have been a natural price adjustment anyway,” he said.

The good news

Property owners may be in a pinch, but this region has suffered the pains of rising costs for years.

Reports earlier in the year boasted that young buyers were still entering the housing market with “reduced expectations,” while many complained prices became too restrictive for many to enter the market at all.

Now prices are becoming more competitive. Developers trying to unload units are offering bonuses, rent to own incentives and coming out with a product that’s more attainable.

All in all, it’s something Brenda Moshansky, a director with the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board, believes will create some opportunities for first-time home buyers looking to get into the market.

“Properties that are marketed competitively will continue to sell, and with the interest rates where they are, it’s a wonderful time for buyers to get into the market,” she said, adding realtors are working a lot harder to draw interest in their listings.

Moshansky said that the Okanagan and its natural allure will ensure that the prices don’t dip too drastically.

“One thing that’s very unique about this region is that it’s a little bit immune to some of the problems because it’s a destination market,” she said.

“Ski hills are expanding, popular resorts as well as accommodations are coming here and we accommodate a lot of recreational consumers for second homes as well as being a retirement market.”

Although Moshansky knows the economic predictions for the next year, she believes that the market is already correcting itself as fewer listings are starting to come out. “Real estate is traditionally very cyclical,” she said.

“Some people say it’s a six year cycle, others say it’s seven…it will turn around. Real estate is not as volatile as the money market.”

When it will end?

Housing is a high reach industry. Realtors, retailers, builders and architects are just a few who will feel the pinch if the bottom falls out of the market.

Construction has become a major economic driver of this region, and job growth has been substantial, with some estimates being in the area of 94 per cent.

“Usually there is a time delay to response in new construction and housing market conditions after sales decline,” said economist Helmut Pastrick, adding that housing starts are likely to drop off by 30 to 40 per cent next year.

But, things will get better.

“It’s not a downward endless spiral,” said Pastrick.

“There will be forces at play to reverse the downturn and some of them are already beginning to materialize.”

It’s still early in the decline of sales and prices, but by 2009, and 2010, things will get better.

“Lower interest rates, lower mortgage rates and lower prices can stimulate demand so that will set the stage for some improvement in housing sales,” he said.

“It’s open to debate how strong that recovery will be—at this time it doesn’t look that strong, but as long as the decline ends…that’s positive.”

House price drop

2008-10-22T12:10:00.000-07:00

The drop in Canadian home prices in September may not be as severe as it seemed, TD Securities said on Wednesday, bolstering the case that the country is not headed for a U.S.-style housing meltdown TD, a unit of Toronto-Dominion Bank, argued in a report that home prices fell 1.3 percent in major Canadian markets in September, not the dramatic 6.2 percent drop that was reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) last week.

CREA said the average house price fell to C$315,461 (about $252,000), dragged down by sales declines in Vancouver and Victoria, British Columbia, which offset rebounds in Calgary and Edmonton, Alberta. CREA said the fall came despite year-over-year gains in average home prices in 17 of 25 major Canadian markets.

TD crunched its own numbers and applied a weighting to each major city to fix "compositional shifts", which it said were behind the distorted CREA view. It said the association has acknowledged the problem.

For example, if Vancouver was the only city that reported sales in one month, and the next month Montreal was the only city that reported, then it might seem that prices had fallen in half because Montreal prices are much less expensive than those in Vancouver.

TD fixed the weight of each city to year-earlier sales levels as of September 2007.

"We wanted to get rid of the whole compositional issue. We really just controlled for the allocation. When we did that we ended up with a 1 percent drop instead of a 6 percent drop," said Eric Lascelles, chief economics and rates strategist at TD Securities.

"That's not catastrophically different, but to me that's a number that makes more sense. Yes the housing market is correcting moderately but it does not have the making of a U.S.-style correction."

He said Canadian housing starts may fall below the 200,000 mark, home prices will continue to correct in some inflated cities, but there is no need to brace for big delinquencies or a hard drop in prices.

The TD calculations aren't perfect, Lascelles acknowledged, because they do not eliminate some factors such as type and quality of home in each city.

Canadian housing data has shown signs of softness but nowhere near the slump that hit that United States, stemming from a crisis in the subprime mortgage sector.

Fixed Mortage-now its time !

2008-10-15T09:20:00.000-07:00

Canadian banks are trying to convince consumers to lock in their mortgage rates because more than 20 per cent of the home loans they have negotiated have become unprofitable, according to industry sources.

The push has come after the banks cut the discount they offered to consumers with variable-rate products tied to the prime lending rate. Two weeks ago, a consumer could get a variable rate product at 0.60 percentage points below prime; today it is one percentage point above prime.

"Banks are scaring people and those people are calling asking whether they should lock in.
( hypotheque montreal )

Anybody with a mortgage negotiated in the past two years would be out of their mind to lock in to, say, a five-year term. They would be going from a rate as low as 3.35 per cent to 5.79 per cent. Lines of credit previously negotiated at a rate below prime are also still valid.

"If you've got a mortgage rate negotiated below prime, you have a dinosaur. It doesn't exist anywhere.
You should hold onto until the end of the term. The banks propped up all their rates 160 basis points because they knew the Bank of Canada would be lowering rates."

Last week, the Bank of Canada lowered interest rates by 50 basis points only to see the major banks cut their prime lending rate by half that amount. After some pressure, most of the banks cut their prime lending rate by the full 50 basis points.

Joan Dal Bianco, vice-president of real estate-secured lending with Toronto-Dominion Bank, said the banks were reluctant to pass on the full 50-point rate cut because they were losing money on variable-rate products.

"At the prime minus rates we were basically earning zero or negative. We kept holding off (cutting the discount)," said Dal Bianco, adding that in the past year 50 per cent of her bank's new mortgages were variable-rate products.

With a cost of funds generally above four per cent because of the lack of liquidity in the market, the mortgages previously negotiated ended up below water after the latest rate cut.

Prime is now 4.25 per cent at TD but two weeks ago the bank was offering a variable rate of 60 basis points below prime, meaning the consumer was borrowing at 3.65 per cent.

For those now entering the housing market, the rate is 5.25 per cent for a variable rate product but Dal Bianco said that might not be high enough. "We are not making much money on those if anything." she said.

The move into variable mortgages tied to prime has come in the last five year with many of the banks promoting products that allow consumers to float with prime but lock in a rate at any time during the term of their mortgage.

The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals says, as of 2007, 21 per cent of mortgages were variable rate, 72 per cent were fixed rate and seven per cent were a mix of the two.

Asked whether the banks are actively encouraging consumers to convert variable rate products, Dal Bianco said that hasn't happened. "We are making sure (staff) have the right conversations if people are really nervous and do not want to see their payment moving."

Another key question going forward for consumers will be whether the prime rate at the banks will continue to move with Bank of Canada's rate and nobody is guaranteeing that.

"It's not that (prime) is less meaningful, it just doesn't mean what it used to," says David Wolf, chief economist at Merrill Lynch Canada. "(Prime) is more likely to fall if the overnight lending rate is zero than if it's 2.5 per cent."

Housing market

2008-10-09T20:58:00.000-07:00

New home construction in Canada was nearly unchanged in September as a decline in single-family homes erased a jump in multiple dwelling units, and economists predicted the credit crunch would lead to a slowdown in ground-breaking.

Housing starts inched to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 217,600 units from an upwardly revised 217,400 units in August, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said on Wednesday.

The September number beat the consensus expectation of analysts who had called for 203,000 starts. August starts were originally reported at 211,000 units.

While construction activity again stayed above the 200,000 unit mark, some analysts said this level would not likely be sustained in months to come.

"Because residential building permits tanked in August and the credit crunch reached a crescendo in September and into October, this could well be the last starts print north of 200K," Scotia Capital economists wrote in a report.

Canadian housing data has been in stark contrast with the state of the housing market in the United States, hit by a crisis that began in the subprime mortgage sector and spread across other parts of the market and the broader economy.

Economists generally expect the Canadian housing market to ease but not fall into crisis as it has in the United States, largely because risky mortgages are not a large part of the market. Even so, the Canadian economy is also expected to slow, which would likely soften demand for housing.

"This slowdown, however, is expected to be both measured and orderly, and in no way do we expect the extent of the correction to be comparable to that currently taking place in the U.S.," said TD Securities strategist Millan Mulraine.

Gains were reported across the country, except in Ontario and Quebec. British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces both reported 10 percent gains, followed by the Prairies.

Urban single home starts declined 8.1 percent to 70,000 units from 76,200, while urban multiple starts rose 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 122,500 units from 116,100 in August.

Rural starts were estimated at an unchanged seasonally adjusted annual rate of 25,100 units in September.

Canada Mortgage meltdown?

2008-09-24T19:19:00.000-07:00

Merrill Lynch is warning that Canada could be headed for a housing and mortgage meltdown similar to the one that has devasted the United States economy.

A report issued Wednesday by Merrill Lynch Canada economists says many Canadian households are more financially overextended than their counterparts in the United States or Britain.

They say it’s only a matter of time before the “tipping point” is reached and the housing and credit markets crack in Canada.

The Merrill Lynch Canada report by economists David Wolf and Carolyn Kwan acknowledges that the analysis is more pessimistic than the prevailing view.

Many economists have been saying that Canada’s housing and banking sectors are much more stable than their American counterparts and will likely slow down but not crash.

But Merrill Lynch — whose U.S. parent is one of the biggest victims of a crisis in financial markets that is rooted in the American housing and mortgage meltdown — says Canadians should be wary.

Household net borrowing in Canada amounted to 6.3 per cent of disposable income in 2007 — meaning they’re carrying more debt than households in the United Kingdom and not far off the peak U.S. shortfall in 2005 — just before the subprime mortgage crisis erupted.

“These data imply that the Canadian household sector is now overextending itself as much as the U.S. or U.K. ever did, challenging the consensus view that Canadian lenders and borrowers have been far more conservative through the cycle,” the Merrill report says.

It also says housing prices are now falling and inventories of unsold homes are rising sharply in Canada suggesting that this market turnaround will not be a transitory phenomenon.

However, the prevailing view is that Canada’s lenders have issued few of the type of subprime mortgages that sparked the U.S. crisis, which is continuing to ripple through the financial system.

In addition, many observers argue that Canadian residential properties are, by and large, not overvalued — considering the strength of regional economies in resource-rich provinces.

New mortgage rules

2008-09-14T21:11:00.000-07:00

Imminent changes to residential mortgage rules in Canada will affect the majority of homebuyers, including those entering the market for the very first time, new Canadians and seasoned investors.

The federal government announced the changes at the beginning of August, with the new regulations going into effect October 15. The three most significant are: the end of the 40-year amortization; the requirement for borrowers to have a minimum credit score of 620; and the end of zero-down mortgages. “I think there are two reasons why we’re seeing these changes,” says Jim Murphy, president and CEO of the Canadian mortgage Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP). “First, the federal government was looking at its exposure [to risk] and that of the Canadian taxpayer. Second, I think they were looking at what’s going on in the United States.”

When a homeowner defaults on a mortgage and the mortgage insurer is not able to cover the costs, the Government of Canada is left holding the bag. Says Murphy, “You have a lender – a bank or credit union. If you put less than 20% down, that lender has to have mortgage insurance. The government then provides a guarantee to the mortgage insurer.”

With these new regulations, the government is telling mortgage insurers that only mortgages meeting the above-mentioned new criteria will be backed.

Amortization

Although the 40-year amortization option is gone, 30- and 35-year amortizations are still available and growing in popularity. “These will probably become the norm,” Murphy says. “Between the fall of 2006 and the fall of 2007, 37% of all mortgages taken out had an amortization of more than 25 years. [This year] that number will be much higher.”

Murphy believes there are a variety of reasons for this. For first-time buyers, the issue is affordability. They are willing to pay more in interest over the term of the mortgage as long as it gets them into a bigger or better home than they could afford under more traditional 25-year amortizations. Paying back a mortgage over 35 years means paying less per month. This also allows first-timers the opportunity to get into the housing market sooner.

But just because you start with a 35-year mortgage, doesn’t mean you can’t make changes later on. “Most people will never be in that mortgage for the full 30 or 35 years,” Murphy says. “They may get a promotion or an inheritance and pay [it] down.”

Longer amortization periods are not just for first-time buyers. “We have people who have equity in their homes and for whatever reasons want a longer amortization,” Murphy says, “They may want to put money into investments or want to do other things with it.” If you have a down payment of 20% or more, no mortgage insurance is needed. Nonetheless, finding a lender who will offer a 40-year package won’t be easy now. “There’s nothing that prevents a lender from offering a 40-year amortization, but it will be likely difficult to find,” Murphy says.

Zero down - Taux Hypothécaire

The nothing-down mortgage (available for the past couple of years) is also gone. The new standard is the old standard – 5% down, minimum. “This change will have a bigger impact on the market, we believe," Murphy says, "particularly for first-time buyers and particularly in a place like the GTA, where housing costs are higher.” The good news is that the government will allow buyers to borrow that 5% from any lender or bank.

Credit score

Although a buyer’s credit score was always of concern to the lender, the government never got involved at this end of the transaction. That will change on October 15, when the government will require the buyer (or one of the buyers, if it’s a joint purchase) to have a minimum credit score of 620.

This new guideline may prove to be a problem for immigrants. “We have expressed some concern about this, especially when it comes to new Canadians, who may have a zero credit rating because they have no credit history,” Murphy says. “So how are they supposed to qualify?” Murphy says his association is currently discussing the minimum credit score issue with the government and hopes to see a change or amendment made to this rule.

Existing transactions

If you’ve recently purchase a home and are still awaiting closing, you might be wondering how the new rules will apply to loan commitments issued before October 15 and closing on or after that date. According to a memo issued by the government, “The existing rules will apply to loan commitments for which a mortgage insurance application has been received by the mortgage insurer on or before October 14, regardless of the closing date of the mortgage loan. This includes new construction in which the closing may not occur for more than a year after the initial loan commitment was issued.”

With the October 15 deadline looming, Murphy warns prospective buyers not to expect lenders to be eager to offer a mortgage under the old rules. “The government does not want lenders to be providing these products until midnight October 14,” he says. “Lenders have already announced that they are not offering these products anymore, and as we get closer to the deadline, they will be increasingly difficult to find.”

Home Improvement Loan

2008-09-06T09:51:00.000-07:00

Get the necessary cash to transform your home into a cozy, elegant movie residence. Let your imagination grow wild, sit down with your wife and start designing the new aspect of your old home. Nobody will recognize it… and all thanks to a simple home improvement loan, that will be just what you need to make a new start when life was beginning to get boring.

Living A Comfortable Life At Last

Getting up early when you wanted to go on sleeping, taking the kids to school, going off to work, paying the bills, taking out the trash and Goodness knows what trouble you find during the day, deserve a prize. At the end of the day, you are welcomed by your dream house, soft music, the kids playing in their own room and your sweetie cooking something with a marvelous aroma.

Hey, It Is Not All Dreaming, Eh?

Nope, it is not ONLY about dreaming. Want to make it real? All you need is to take the decision to get it done. Well, start finding out about home improvement loans. There is one just right for you. When something has a determined name, it means that it is a specific product for a specific use. That is what makes it ideal for the purpose.

Is There More Than One Option?

Certainly. Depending on the amount needed for the improvement you want to make, you can take a home improvement loan or a mortgage loan. The mortgage Montreal loan will be great, because the amounts considered are greater, and will give you more than enough to get the job done.

The Downside Of The Mortgage Loan

That is the point… more than enough may be a little too much and what is more, the financing period, too long. Therefore, reducing the stakes a bit, we have a home improvement loan. You are not buying a new one, just improving your old one. Besides, what could be lighter on the family, than staying in the same neighborhood, with the same friends and knowing every single corner?

And Now, It Is The Lender’s Turn

Sift through the options on the Internet, and surely you will make a good deal. The thing here is to get an even better deal out of the lender you have chosen. Build up a folder with graphics in full detail. For this, you can get an architect, or do it yourself with a CAD program.

Next, make a list of the work that will be done, the materials you need and the final sum. Again, a reliable architect will be useful, but there are also little computer programs that do the numbers for you, if you are not willing to pay the fees. Then go to the lender and give them the impression of an organized guy, someone who gets what he wants.

A Good Deal Is More Than Just Being Able To Repay

You can also get insurance for your home, something that many people overlook. So there you have another negotiating factor. The broker you have chosen will surely be able to get you a favorable insurance policy, for your benefit and theirs. (They always have a share of whatever business they participate in)

Getting Started

Yes, you have to get started, put some action into all the thinking and dreaming and preparation. You have already done something by reading this article. Now it is time to start moving the pieces on the board. The best moment is now. You will be surprised with what you will get.

Fixed Mortgage Rates

2008-08-29T10:24:00.000-07:00

A mortgage is really like a specialized kind of loan that gets issued to individuals that qualify to purchase themselves a home. There are so many different mortgages available for one to choose from at the moment, that is has become very important that you check and compare mortgages before you just choose one.

There might be other ways in which you can borrow money for the finances of purchasing a house but a mortgage is definitely the easiest and most efficient way to finance a new home. You should have a look at a few different mortgages before making a final decision. At the moment because of the uncertainty in the market comparing fixed rate mortgage is certainly an option.

When you are looking at purchasing a house, you will have to look at different mortgages. It can also be rather confusing when you have to determine all the diverse kinds of mortgages and then decide which is best for you; because of this it is important that you compare them carefully.

It is not impossible to obtain a 100% mortgage, this means that you will get the loan for which you applied the full amount of and you will not have to give a deposit for it. This may seem fine at first, but you might be charged for the service by the lender. This amount is not always a very small one either. So in the end, it may not be as good as it seems and this is where you determine what will be best for you. It is so important when comparing mortgages to read the small print.

Sometimes you can even get your mortgage loan at 120% or even higher, this gives you the chance to use money for addition things once you have purchased the house. Like for example if you want to put money away for future references, you may do so. But remember that your houses value will in fact not be as much as the value of your mortgage will.

This is not always much of a solid basis when it comes to borrowing because the only thing you have to fall back on is your home and if something goes wrong, where is that additional 20% going to come from?

Just a few of the different mortgage types that can be considered are self certification, discount, fixed rate, first time buyer, buy to let, capped and there are many more. Most of these are rather easy to understand, but some might be very confusing to some people, especially if they are not very familiar with mortgages and their specifications. One thing for sure mortgage comparisons can save you plenty of your hard earn cash in the long term

If you are purchasing a home for the first time, you would go for the first time buyer's mortgage. This is an easy mortgage and that's why it is directed at first time buyers as it caters for problems that first time buyers might be faced with.

For example, these people are most likely young; therefore they might not have a major history of work behind their names. They also may not have a lot of money saved; this is why the first time buyer's mortgage is great, as it caters for people that aren't really sure of what must be done.

One thing for sure mortgage comparisons can save you plenty of your hard earn cash in the long term, my advice at the moment is to compare the current mortgage rate and then get the best fixed rate mortgage possible.